ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9289
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1621 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:32 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Gray showing up in the eye now, looks like satellite eye temps are positive.

Like, how high in the positives?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1622 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:32 pm

Going through the Recon pace, we might get an eye pass before 02Z.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1623 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:32 pm

Highteeld wrote:Eye temp near positive


-0.1 C

very close ..

wont be long now.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

SconnieCane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 998
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1624 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:34 pm

Can't...refresh...IR loop...fast...enough!
7 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1625 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:35 pm

2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1626 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:35 pm

Positive eye temp at half past the hour
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1627 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:35 pm

First positive eye temp.

we could very well be in the low 900mbs now..

Image
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1628 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:35 pm

The eye has warmed more than 30C in 90 minutes. At least with Wilma we had enough recon to know how much it was bombing out. This could legitimately be somewhere between 885 and 935 right now.
11 likes   

Ian2401
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 307
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:55 pm
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1629 Postby Ian2401 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:35 pm

i have literally written 100 words out of my 2000 word essay due tonight but i literally cannot stop checking this storm every two seconds. feels like i am witnessing history
16 likes   
B.S. Meteorology from Florida State '24 // Current M.S. Meteorology student at Florida State

Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling

Consult the NHC for official information

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1630 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:36 pm

☢️☢️☢️

Image

Image
4 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8819
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1631 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:36 pm

I’m going to go aggressive for my max intensity estimate: 155 kt and 895 mbar. A positive pinhole eye surrounded by a massive pink <-80C ring...this is no ordinary Cat 5.
6 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9289
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1632 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:First positive eye temp.

we could very well be in the low 900mbs now..

https://i.ibb.co/QYFjBjS/Capture.png

This is really bad. . . D:
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1633 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:37 pm

I think there's a non-inconceivable chance that we could be witnessing the strongest Atlantic hurricane EVER, and if not now, within the next few hours.
13 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2419
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1634 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:37 pm

I don't know what to expect. Rarely do we have actual recon flying into these storms (nothing for Goni). I'm predicting Cat 5 winds for sure and the pressure around 910 mb. I might be conservative here though.
2 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5479
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1635 Postby chaser1 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:37 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Dark pink insanity

https://i.imgur.com/fmmYXDJ.gif


ETA- 2020's Cancer Awareness Cane
7 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9289
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1636 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:38 pm

aspen wrote:I’m going to go aggressive for my max intensity estimate: 155 kt and 895 mbar. A positive pinhole eye surrounded by a massive pink <-80C ring...this is no ordinary Cat 5.

I'm saying 170 mph & 900 MB
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1637 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:First positive eye temp.

we could very well be in the low 900mbs now..

https://i.ibb.co/QYFjBjS/Capture.png

Raw T# should be pushing toward 8.0 soon.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1638 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:38 pm

wider angle view
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9289
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1639 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:38 pm

galaxy401 wrote:I don't know what to expect. Rarely do we have actual recon flying into these storms (nothing for Goni). I'm predicting Cat 5 winds for sure and the pressure around 910 mb. I might be conservative here though.

Or aggressive. . .
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph

#1640 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:39 pm

Yesterday I would have assumed with 99% certainty that this tops out high cat 3 maybe low 4. This speed of intensification new normal is gonna take some getting used to :eek:

Also raise your hand if your device storage is also now loaded full with satellite loops just from today
8 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests