ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 315 miles from 00z position

#1761 Postby Chemmers » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:21 pm

My conservative guess 895 and 160 knot
My bullish guess 880 and 180 knots
When the recon leaves
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 315 miles from 00z position

#1762 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:21 pm

Goni and this not even 3 days apart is just surreal. :eek:

I can't even imagine what recon might find. They might even find sub-900...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1763 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:21 pm

Just when I thought it couldn't get any better with Goni, Eta goes all out in true 2020 fashion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1764 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:22 pm

FLY FASTER :x
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 380 miles from 00z position

#1765 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:22 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:I am going to be so bummed if recon finds a major ERC already underway, with enough of an outer eyewall to reduce maximum winds from what they would be



I'd like future recon planes to have jet engines that fly at 900 mph! That would be awesome to have the planes the size of the current fleet with that kind of speed. It would cover far more distance a lot faster.


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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1766 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:22 pm

With the way the eye is wobbling recon center fixes are gonna be jumping up and down, left and right lol.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1767 Postby Ian2401 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:22 pm

recon is almost there, should only be 30-40mins from now
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1768 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 pm

I am doing the play by play in the title of how many miles the AF plane is from the eye so the members can know where is the plane. This mission will be a historic one.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1769 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 pm

There’s no way an EWRC is gonna choke this before recon gets there or even until at least another two hours. An outer eyewall building is normal but it doesn’t have enough time to choke the inner core for a couple hours.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 315 miles from 00z position

#1770 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:Goni and this not even 3 days apart is just surreal. :eek:

I can't even imagine what recon might find. They might even find sub-900...

I believe definitely will find sub 900
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1771 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 pm

Anyone see any signs of an oncoming ERC?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1772 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 pm

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1323431727612788737




We're actually seeing a bonefide T8.0 in the Atlantic...in November.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1773 Postby JediChick » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:24 pm

Ian2401 wrote:recon is almost there, should only be 30-40mins from now


So, now would be a good time to charge my phone. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1774 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:I am doing the play by play in the title of how many miles the AF plane is from the eye so the members can know where is the plane. This mission will be a historic one.

Thank you. Truly historic.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1775 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:24 pm

Poleward channel just fully connected to the 200mb jet. Eta will continue to strengthen unless an ERC or landfall occurs.

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1776 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:24 pm

This Recon mission into Eta will be extremely helpful for other agencies that don't have access to it. We will have a good 5 hours of comparing high end Dvorak estimates to actual Recon data.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1777 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:25 pm

RL3AO wrote:https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1323431727612788737

We're actually seeing a bonefide T8.0 in the Atlantic...in November.

Gilbert peaked T8.0 on TAFB analysis and T7.9 on ADT. Eta may not get to T8.0 from either TAFB or SAB but may very well exceed that on ADT.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1778 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:26 pm

Raw T# 8.3 (aka 205mph/880s for pressure) before adjustments.
 https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1323433417015496704


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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1779 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:27 pm

tiger_deF wrote:Anyone see any signs of an oncoming ERC?

I just see a positive temp pinhole eye within a <-85C CDO and frequent eyewall lightning. No sign of an EWRC yet — just absolute insanity.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position

#1780 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:27 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Raw T# 8.3 (aka 205mph/880s for pressure) before adjustments.
https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1323433417015496704


Thats in the upper Echelon world wide
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