ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane decending to operational altitud

#1841 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:44 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Godspeed to everyone onboard that recon flight—not sure how anyone can have the guts to ride a plane into this monster.

Probably not too bad at higher altitudes.


Higher altitudes are far worse. Flight level winds are always higher than on the surface.

High winds aren’t a problem. It’s turbulence. Hurricane Hunters fly higher when they need a safer ride. Lower when they can get away with it for better data.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1842 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:44 pm

Already recorded 40 knots very far away from the eye.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1843 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:44 pm

This is absolutely crazy. Who would've guessed that our strongest storm with a perfect Dvorak presentation would happen in November of all months?? 2020 strikes again I guess.
:eek:

If I were Wilma, I would probably start getting scared. Like really scared.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1844 Postby Cerlin » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:44 pm


:double: I didn’t think this was even possible in the atlantic.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1845 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:45 pm

For reference, the highest RAW T by Patricia was 8.3
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1846 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:46 pm

Weather Dude wrote:

That's Patricia level if I remember correctly

Yeah. it's insane
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1847 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:46 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Hopefully this clears the ERC doubts

https://i.imgur.com/WmBGtGF.gif


Very clear secondary eyewall in progress, but doesn't seem to be impeding the inner eyewall yet. That'll change soon.

Too close to landfall for any meaningful ERC to commence IMO. Even an outer eyewall may not complete until landfall.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1848 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:46 pm

Cerlin wrote:

:double: I didn’t think this was even possible in the atlantic.

It's 2020 EVERYTHING IS possible

:double: :double: :double: :double:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1849 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:46 pm

My wild guess for the intensity: 175 kt / 886 mb.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1850 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:46 pm

Recon is almost there...just look at this beast. I never thought I would actually see a pinhole eye, T#8.4, giant pink ring system in my life -- or anytime soon.
Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1851 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:46 pm

Here is what Patty generated in ADT

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1852 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:46 pm

If it weren't for channel 53 chill on Sirius I'd be losing my mind
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1853 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:47 pm

That eye is exceptionally stable and still warming if anything. No chance the Erc interrupts measurement of peak intensity
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1854 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:47 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:This is absolutely crazy. Who would've guessed that our strongest storm with a perfect Dvorak presentation would happen in November of all months?? 2020 strikes again I guess.
:eek:

If I were Wilma, I would probably start getting scared. Like really scared.



But here is the scary part, Eta is expected to make landfall or brush at peak intensity.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1855 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:47 pm

8.4? In November?

2020 is just a nightmare.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1856 Postby storminabox » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:47 pm

Cerlin wrote:

:double: I didn’t think this was even possible in the atlantic.


With perfect conditions and warm water... anything is possible. Eta is likely reaching the maximum intensity possible for this time of year
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1857 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:47 pm

Highteeld wrote:For reference, the highest RAW T by Patricia was 8.3

Geostationary satellite didn't quite resolve Patricia's true eye temp tho. Eta's eye temp is also likely being underestimated
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1858 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:47 pm

Might as well guess the Atlantic record: 175kts/881mb
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1859 Postby psyclone » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:47 pm

This storm is working it's magic over the shallow waters of the gorda bank so it never registers high on the ohc maps. shallow shelf waters are flash fuel for tc's. Like the oceanic equivalent of a grass fire..
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane to reach the eye shortly

#1860 Postby Kazmit » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:47 pm

Remember... this was a cat 1 this morning.
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