ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ClarCari]

Another SE eyewall drop of 155 knots at the surface! Maybe these measurements are not wind gusts?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-0429A-ETA_dropsonde8_20201103-0306.png

That’s the old one.

[TheStormExpert]

Too pissed to even function. Absolutely inexcusably pathetic performance today by recon; desperately need a budget increase for NOAA so they can scrap these terrible planes and get new ones, or just not bother altogether. Gonna head for bed, catastrophic day for Nicaragua tomorrow regardless.

Cat.4 or Cat.5, still going to be the same catastrophe for Nicaragua and Honduras. But I see what you mean, would be nice to see an upgrade!

[supercane4867]

Next planned recon mission departs at 1:30AM central time so there should be another fix prior to landfall IF recon makes it to there.

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/ChrisJacksonSC/status/1323478065452822528

[Iceresistance]

Another SE eyewall drop of 155 knots at the surface! Maybe these measurements are not wind gusts?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-0429A-ETA_dropsonde8_20201103-0306.png

That’s the old one.

The latest one I could find was dropped an hour ago.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We'll probably get one last VDM from AF304 in Eta before it leaves.

Then we're in the dark for a while, unless another recon gets scrambled out.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, that's 4 planes now with issues in one day.

[Cunxi Huang]

Another SE eyewall drop of 155 knots at the surface! Maybe these measurements are not wind gusts?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-0429A-ETA_dropsonde8_20201103-0306.png

These are gusts. There is a conversion factor that can convert lower 150 m gusts to 1-min surface wind.

[ClarCari]

Irregardless I strongly believe NHC will upgrade to a Cat.5 at some point. The evidence we did manage to get is hinting at deepening and the NHC even forecasted it.
If the NHC forecasts it, I’m sure they will pull that trigger.

[Iceresistance]

Another SE eyewall drop of 155 knots at the surface! Maybe these measurements are not wind gusts?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-0429A-ETA_dropsonde8_20201103-0306.png

These are gusts. There is a conversion factor that can convert lower 150 m gusts to 1-min surface wind.

Someone said there might be enough evidence for a CAT 5

[supercane4867]

Think the bright side. At least I’m getting some sleep tonight...

[Iceresistance]

WPAC has ZERO recon & they get 190 mph storms! Why does the Atlantic keep having even more problems with Recon & the intensity is lower than what could really happen?

[Iceresistance]

The Inner core of Zeta is getting larger.

[FireRat]

Perhaps Eta should be classified as a Cat 5 based on satellite presentation alone like they do in the WPAC on a day like this. I bet Eta would've been tagged as a low end C5 right now if it were near the Philippines instead.

It would be insane if this storm stayed as a Cat 4 operationally, but the impacts on central America will be equally bad regardless, but yeah it sure looks like a tough cookie to technically get the C5 in 2020, close but no cigar huh?

In reality, this is about as '5' as it gets on satellite presentation in the Atlantic, let alone in November of all the months.
I'd say it should get upgraded soon so it gets taken as.seriously as possible in the area where it's entering (same general area that had C5 Felix in 2007), and so the News also actually gives a damn.

[Sciencerocks]

WPAC has ZERO recon & they get 190 mph storms! Why does the Atlantic keep having even more problems with Recon & the intensity is lower than what could really happen?

The Jtwc is more liberal and uses only satellite estimates. The nhc has a higher bar! If this was in the western Pacific it would be a 155 knot cat5.

[Ubuntwo]

No final estimate had anything at or above cat 5. There's a reason dvorak has constraints and raw values are not used. We should get subjective estimates before the 1AM, that will likely reflect on the NHC's intensity.

[Keldeo1997]

Next recon flight is scheduled to take off in 3 hours.

[Cunxi Huang]

Another SE eyewall drop of 155 knots at the surface! Maybe these measurements are not wind gusts?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-0429A-ETA_dropsonde8_20201103-0306.png

These are gusts. There is a conversion factor that can convert lower 150 m gusts to 1-min surface wind.

Someone said there might be enough evidence for a CAT 5

It could be a cat 5 now, but the dropsonde data wouldn't support a cat 5 intensity.

[Ed_2001]

It goes both ways, don't forget Dorian last year had cloud tops that usually corresponds to "just" a 160mph Cat 5 but it was actually one of the most violent storm ever produced by the Atlantic. I do hope that they get the recon issue resolved since as many have already said the storm is clearing still deepening.

[Iceresistance]

Next recon flight is scheduled to take off in 3 hours.

I will be sleeping.