ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ClarCari]

BT keeps the same intensity. *sigh*

If the next recon is still allowed to go it should leave in less than 30 minutes.

[GCANE]

Latest AMSU thermal profile analysis shows a very deep cold pool at the CoC.
Indicates that this may survive its trek over land better than currently anticipated and could remerge into the Carib that would likely spin back up quickly.
Convection will be self sustaining.

[Owasso]

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA NEARING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...

A wind gust to 74 mph (119 km/h) has been reported at the Puerto
Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.

Kept at 150mph/923mb
Hourly updates now.

[kevin]

ADT now 7.3, 149 kts

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2020 Time : 065017 UTC
Lat : 13:54:35 N Lon : 82:56:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 916.5mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

[ClarCari]

No longer need recon. Hopes up for CA!!!

Let’s also see what data they receive.

[Owasso]

Has the 0730Z Recon been cancelled?

[ClarCari]

Has the 0730Z Recon been cancelled?

It seems yes since it’s too close to landfall. We’re are going to rely on surface obs from here on out.

[Kingarabian]

Prayers up for those in its path.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Has the 0730Z Recon been cancelled?

It seems yes since it’s too close to landfall. We’re are going to rely on surface obs from here on out.

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1323531726233227265

[ClarCari]

Has the 0730Z Recon been cancelled?

It seems yes since it’s too close to landfall. We’re are going to rely on surface obs from here on out.

https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1323531726233227265

hehehe! In this case there’s no such thing as too little too late. Instead it’s better late than never.

[ClarCari]

Note that even with warming cloud tops, that DOES NOT mean winds haven’t mixed down to Cat.5 strength, not all Cat.5’s have had pink cloud tops.

They eye shape has remained quite constant the past couple or so hours despite warming which indicates there is still no sign of an EWRC (contrary to what self-proclaimed Twitter “pros” will tell you, cloud warming does not indicate EWRC ), and with only hours left until landfall, it’s isn’t very likely that there will be one to weaken Eta which is real bad news for CA.

[Hammy]

Has the 0730Z Recon been cancelled?

It seems yes since it’s too close to landfall. We’re are going to rely on surface obs from here on out.

https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1323531726233227265

Not entirely on topic but the green lighting in the cockpit gives off a pretty cool look.

[Owasso]

On it's way now.

[ClarCari]

Pink Tops are starting to pop up again and wrap around. One may notice it appears the eye is shrinking but it’s actually becoming a bit filled with convection since the cold tops are coming back.

Another important note is the “black” shade immediately around the eye on Infrared is the actual inner eyewall. If that were to fluctuate only then could you say there’s an EWRC potentially happening. The actual eye could shrink or become larger and do whatever but as long as that “black” inner eyewall is intact, that means no EWRC cycle has occured.

[Owasso]

Dropping a full altitude per update now.

[ClarCari]

Raw T# went from down to 6.9 overnight and now back up to 7. Eta isn’t weakening at all...

Edit: NHC 4AM EST has Eta slowed down to 5mph.

[NotoSans]

From the latest discussion by NHC:

Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct
eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on
continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity
estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show
at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely
stopped the rapid deepening process.

[abajan]

Still forecasted as a Cat.5 before landfall. And it’s still slowing down. Next recon, should it pan out, could still be able to find a strong system offshore.

Yeah we'll see. Cat 5 or not still an awful situation down there.

Exactly. Need we be reminded that the main story with Mitch was its torrential rains and resultant catastrophic flooding? But, of course, high winds are more dramatic.

[ClarCari]

From the latest discussion by NHC:

Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct
eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on
continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity
estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show
at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely
stopped the rapid deepening process.

Note that does not in-fact indicate EWRC, but rather that strengthening isn’t as rapid as earlier, which is expected.

Does not suggest intensification isn’t still happening and the NHC estimate is still arguably conservative.

[Kingarabian]

ADT now 7.3, 149 kts

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2020 Time : 065017 UTC
Lat : 13:54:35 N Lon : 82:56:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 916.5mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Well the ADT constraints sure did their job. Or maybe it lucked out? Regardless, the folks at the University of Wisconsin-Madison know what they're doing. I think they should consider updating ADT to show less bias for systems with cold tops during November.