Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

[TorSkk]

My personal thought is that Goni's first peak is stronger than the second peak. It doesn't mean that the second peak is not strong, just that the first peak is even stronger.

Eye temperature during the second peak oscillated between OW and WMG range, which is not a typical sign observed in "top typhoons" (See Nepartak, Megi and Meranti). In contrast, eye temperature during the first peak is persistently WMG, even reaching 20C+ range.

Of course, objective aids in the second peak indicate a stronger intensity, but the core and circulation during the first peak is very small that I doubt any objective aid can reasonably resolve the storm.

That's true, and while Goni's appearance was very good it was noticeably worse than Haiyan. Haiyan's CDO was basically entirely covered by CDG and the eye was significantly warmer

[euro6208]

Again it's all a beauty contest with Adt, Dvorak, CDG, CMG, Satcon, 8.0...this and that. What matters is the pressure and the wind speed which can only be found by recon.

Patricia got lucky she had recon in the most unlikely places, the EPAC, and is the only storm on record to peak below sub 900 in the basin.

Rarely do you see an Atlantic system peak at the same level as Goni and other typhoons did. Most other cat 3/4/5 are above satellite estimates anyways. They usually are way above Dvorak, cloud tops that are not even impressive, but they do have recon.

Truly a loss in meteorology.

These typhoons are the greatest tropical cyclone observed during the recon years in the WPAC which lasted for 43 years from 1944 to 1987 and still continuing to dominate.

There's a limit though says Dvorak.

[BYG Jacob]

Again it's all a beauty contest with Adt, Dvorak, CDG, CMG, Satcon, 8.0...this and that. What matters is the pressure and the wind speed which can only be found by recon.

Patricia got lucky she had recon in the most unlikely places, the EPAC, and is the only storm on record to peak below sub 900 in the basin.

Rarely do you see an Atlantic system peak at the same level as Goni and other typhoons did. Most other cat 3/4/5 are above satellite estimates anyways. They usually are way above Dvorak, cloud tops that are not even impressive, but they do have recon.

Truly a loss in meteorology.

These typhoons are the greatest tropical cyclone observed during the recon years in the WPAC which lasted for 43 years from 1944 to 1987 and still continuing to dominate.

There's a limit though says Dvorak.

Do something other than cry about the lack of recon

[aspen]

My personal thought is that Goni's first peak is stronger than the second peak. It doesn't mean that the second peak is not strong, just that the first peak is even stronger.

Eye temperature during the second peak oscillated between OW and WMG range, which is not a typical sign observed in "top typhoons" (See Nepartak, Megi and Meranti). In contrast, eye temperature during the first peak is persistently WMG, even reaching 20C+ range.

Of course, objective aids in the second peak indicate a stronger intensity, but the core and circulation during the first peak is very small that I doubt any objective aid can reasonably resolve the storm.

That's true, and while Goni's appearance was very good it was noticeably worse than Haiyan. Haiyan's CDO was basically entirely covered by CDG and the eye was significantly warmer
https://i.imgur.com/2JBR7E2.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/e3kVNG2.jpg

That has me thinking: if Goni was worthy of 170 kt, does that mean Haiyan was even stronger? I recall there was a study that put it at 175 kt (200 mph) and another that estimated its central pressure to be 858 mbar, but comparisons with Goni show once again that it was in a league unlike anything ever seen before or since.

[ElectricStorm]

Again it's all a beauty contest with Adt, Dvorak, CDG, CMG, Satcon, 8.0...this and that. What matters is the pressure and the wind speed which can only be found by recon.

Patricia got lucky she had recon in the most unlikely places, the EPAC, and is the only storm on record to peak below sub 900 in the basin.

Rarely do you see an Atlantic system peak at the same level as Goni and other typhoons did. Most other cat 3/4/5 are above satellite estimates anyways. They usually are way above Dvorak, cloud tops that are not even impressive, but they do have recon.

Truly a loss in meteorology.

These typhoons are the greatest tropical cyclone observed during the recon years in the WPAC which lasted for 43 years from 1944 to 1987 and still continuing to dominate.

There's a limit though says Dvorak.

Would you please stop comparing every single WPAC system to the Atlantic, and automatically assuming every single typhoon is stronger than every hurricane? We get it... It would be nice to have recon in the WPAC. But claiming every typhoon is near a record strength far stronger than any Atlantic storm contributes nothing to this board, especially when you post something like this pretty much every day

[1900hurricane]

Unless it is a productive discussion, can we not do the whole WPac recon thing on this thread? Thanks.

[Highteeld]

My personal thought is that Goni's first peak is stronger than the second peak. It doesn't mean that the second peak is not strong, just that the first peak is even stronger.

Eye temperature during the second peak oscillated between OW and WMG range, which is not a typical sign observed in "top typhoons" (See Nepartak, Megi and Meranti). In contrast, eye temperature during the first peak is persistently WMG, even reaching 20C+ range.

Of course, objective aids in the second peak indicate a stronger intensity, but the core and circulation during the first peak is very small that I doubt any objective aid can reasonably resolve the storm.

That's true, and while Goni's appearance was very good it was noticeably worse than Haiyan. Haiyan's CDO was basically entirely covered by CDG and the eye was significantly warmer
https://i.imgur.com/2JBR7E2.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/e3kVNG2.jpg

That has me thinking: if Goni was worthy of 170 kt, does that mean Haiyan was even stronger? I recall there was a study that put it at 175 kt (200 mph) and another that estimated its central pressure to be 858 mbar, but comparisons with Goni show once again that it was in a league unlike anything ever seen before or since.

Yes. 170 knots for Haiyan is likely too low. The banding features were more intense, better symmetry, and a colder CDO. 170 knots for Goni is probably pretty damn close to truth, but by most satellite measures/nudgers, Haiyan was more impressive and likely over (possibly well over) 170 knots. It's hard to compare eye temps due to the smaller eye of Goni, and ADT's major limitations of pixel sampling in small eyes (think Patricia, Hagibis).

[ElectricStorm]

That's true, and while Goni's appearance was very good it was noticeably worse than Haiyan. Haiyan's CDO was basically entirely covered by CDG and the eye was significantly warmer
https://i.imgur.com/2JBR7E2.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/e3kVNG2.jpg

That has me thinking: if Goni was worthy of 170 kt, does that mean Haiyan was even stronger? I recall there was a study that put it at 175 kt (200 mph) and another that estimated its central pressure to be 858 mbar, but comparisons with Goni show once again that it was in a league unlike anything ever seen before or since.

Yes. 170 knots for Haiyan is likely too low. The banding features were more intense, better symmetry, and a colder CDO. 170 knots for Goni is probably pretty damn close to truth, but by most satellite measures/nudgers, Haiyan was more impressive and likely over (possibly well over) 170 knots. It's hard to compare eye temps due to the smaller eye of Goni, and ADT's major limitations of pixel sampling in small eyes (think Patricia, Hagibis).

I'd put Haiyan at 180-185kts, Goni at 175kts personally

[euro6208]

Again it's all a beauty contest with Adt, Dvorak, CDG, CMG, Satcon, 8.0...this and that. What matters is the pressure and the wind speed which can only be found by recon.

Patricia got lucky she had recon in the most unlikely places, the EPAC, and is the only storm on record to peak below sub 900 in the basin.

Rarely do you see an Atlantic system peak at the same level as Goni and other typhoons did. Most other cat 3/4/5 are above satellite estimates anyways. They usually are way above Dvorak, cloud tops that are not even impressive, but they do have recon.

Truly a loss in meteorology.

These typhoons are the greatest tropical cyclone observed during the recon years in the WPAC which lasted for 43 years from 1944 to 1987 and still continuing to dominate.

There's a limit though says Dvorak.

Would you please stop comparing every single WPAC system to the Atlantic, and automatically assuming every single typhoon is stronger than every hurricane? We get it... It would be nice to have recon in the WPAC. But claiming every typhoon is near a record strength far stronger than any Atlantic storm contributes nothing to this board, especially when you post something like this pretty much every day

I did not claim that every typhoon is stronger/record strength. Look at my previous post. I'm just spreading awareness that most Atlantic storms are above dvorak especially for + major hurricanes, and/or rapidly intensifying. Even TS's.......

[euro6208]

Again it's all a beauty contest with Adt, Dvorak, CDG, CMG, Satcon, 8.0...this and that. What matters is the pressure and the wind speed which can only be found by recon.

Patricia got lucky she had recon in the most unlikely places, the EPAC, and is the only storm on record to peak below sub 900 in the basin.

Rarely do you see an Atlantic system peak at the same level as Goni and other typhoons did. Most other cat 3/4/5 are above satellite estimates anyways. They usually are way above Dvorak, cloud tops that are not even impressive, but they do have recon.

Truly a loss in meteorology.

These typhoons are the greatest tropical cyclone observed during the recon years in the WPAC which lasted for 43 years from 1944 to 1987 and still continuing to dominate.

There's a limit though says Dvorak.

Do something other than cry about the lack of recon

It's the truth unfortunately. I'll stop right there. If you can't accept it, might as well ignore me. I'm just spreading awareness.

[BYG Jacob]

Again it's all a beauty contest with Adt, Dvorak, CDG, CMG, Satcon, 8.0...this and that. What matters is the pressure and the wind speed which can only be found by recon.

Patricia got lucky she had recon in the most unlikely places, the EPAC, and is the only storm on record to peak below sub 900 in the basin.

Rarely do you see an Atlantic system peak at the same level as Goni and other typhoons did. Most other cat 3/4/5 are above satellite estimates anyways. They usually are way above Dvorak, cloud tops that are not even impressive, but they do have recon.

Truly a loss in meteorology.

These typhoons are the greatest tropical cyclone observed during the recon years in the WPAC which lasted for 43 years from 1944 to 1987 and still continuing to dominate.

There's a limit though says Dvorak.

Do something other than cry about the lack of recon

It's the truth unfortunately. I'll stop right there. If you can't accept it, might as well ignore me. I'm just spreading awareness.

Your lengthy post history on the subject is not simply just trying spread awareness.

If you want recon in the WPAC, the nations that deal with these systems will have to get their own.

[1900hurricane]

Unless it is a productive discussion, can we not do the whole WPac recon thing on this thread? Thanks.

Really.

[aspen]

Speaking of recon, depending on what they find, we might have to add Eta to the list of ridiculously intense TCs from the last 5 years.

[aspen]

Super Typhoon Goni vs Hurricane Eta, just two days apart. Both have achieved raw T#s of 8.0 or greater. We'll soon know which is the stronger of the two.

[NotoSans]

I guess we have just seen the best example of recon lagging behind looks.

[mrbagyo]

cold cloudtop convection ain't everything

[NotoSans]

One possible explanation for Eta being somehow weaker than expected: The tropopause in the deep tropics in October and November is higher, meaning that it is easier for tropical cyclones to attain very cold cloud top.
 https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1323461994012315649




This theory has also been proposed by Knaff 2010 when explaining Dvorak bias. Of course, one example is not enough to prove anything, but perhaps it does lend some credence to the theory.

[euro6208]

Super Typhoon Goni vs Hurricane Eta, just two days apart. Both have achieved raw T#s of 8.0 or greater. We'll soon know which is the stronger of the two.

Goni actually had Dvorak fixes of 8.0 from PGTW/KNES.

Eta is only at 6.5.

[Blinhart]

Super Typhoon Goni vs Hurricane Eta, just two days apart. Both have achieved raw T#s of 8.0 or greater. We'll soon know which is the stronger of the two.

Goni actually had Dvorak fixes of 8.0 from PGTW/KNES.

Eta is only at 6.5.

Pretty sure it got up to 8.4

[aspen]

Super Typhoon Goni vs Hurricane Eta, just two days apart. Both have achieved raw T#s of 8.0 or greater. We'll soon know which is the stronger of the two.

Goni actually had Dvorak fixes of 8.0 from PGTW/KNES.

Eta is only at 6.5.

Pretty sure it got up to 8.4

Those were raws from the automated Dvorak site, not the final T-numbers. Goni was assessed at T#8.0 while Eta got up to T#6.9.