ATL: ETA - Models

[Blown Away]

Looks like 12z HWRF/HMON go into the EPAC.

[SFLcane]

Looks like 12z HWRF/HMON go into the EPAC.

No, hwrf is in the nw Caribbean Sea.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like 12z HWRF/HMON go into the EPAC.

Looks like the HWRF sees a center reforming off the coast of Honduras.

[SFLcane]

Looks like 12z HWRF/HMON go into the EPAC.

Looks like the HWRF sees a center reforming off the coast of Honduras.

And stronger..

[LarryWx]

COAMPS ens

[Spacecoast]

I’m getting a little concerned how the NHC forecast and some of the models don’t show Eta getting as far east anymore. Perhaps there’s a slim possibility of Eta getting blocked in the Caribbean, although a more likely outcome of a less east track is a longer time frame bringing impacts to Cuba and Florida.

This is a good point. It appears that NHC is taking a 'less east' track, along with pushing out the the time frame. Although wind impacts are of some concern, S. Florida should be more concerned about a TS spinning for a longer period of time off the SW tip of FL.

[SFLcane]

[Spacecoast]

A side note:
12z GFS hits Nicaragua again with another storm on Nov 20th
0z Para hits keys (again?) with another storm on Nov 19th

Is there no end in sight?

[TheStormExpert]

12z HWRF is weaker than 06z and through the Gulf Stream just east of Palm Beach in 96hrs @ 984mbs. Keeps the worst weather offshore and over Grand Bahama Island.

[jdray]

12z HWRF is weaker than 06z and through the Gulf Stream just east of Palm Beach in 96hrs @ 984mbs. Keeps the worst weather offshore and over Grand Bahama Island.

https://i.imgur.com/XfXD0cN.png

Thats a prime spot for it to gather some strength, all depending upon how disorganized it is at that point.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro turns this NW after exiting Cuba just SW of Florida in 4-5 days as a strengthening hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

So the 12z GFS has Eta near the north tip of Andros Island in The Bahamas in 5 days, while the 12z Euro has Eta just west of Key West at the same time.

Maybe a compromise up the peninsula some before turning NW or West is the best bet at the moment?

[TheStormExpert]

12z HWRF is weaker than 06z and through the Gulf Stream just east of Palm Beach in 96hrs @ 984mbs. Keeps the worst weather offshore and over Grand Bahama Island.

https://i.imgur.com/XfXD0cN.png

Thats a prime spot for it to gather some strength, all depending upon how disorganized it is at that point.

Yep. Gulf Stream waters just off Palm beach are around 83-84°F.

[underthwx]

A side note:
12z GFS hits Nicaragua again with another storm on Nov 20th
0z Para hits keys (again?) with another storm on Nov 19th

Is there no end in sight?

Say it isn't so...

[gatorcane]

The Florida High appears at the right time again to turn this

[TheStormExpert]

The Florida High appears at the right time again to turn this

https://i.postimg.cc/VkXcLb1V/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-fh0-144.gif

Our friend the SE ridge! Keeps our winters warm and humid while also protecting us from tropical cyclone threats.

[CourierPR]

You folks need to get off this Florida high kick.

[SFLcane]

You folks need to get off this Florida high kick.

Lol it’s at every opportunity to defend that Florida shield. I highly doupt Florida gets out of this one with some sort of impact. A TS is NOT a point on a map effects can extend ways away from any center.

[LarryWx]

Folks, the 12Z Euro says we'll have Kate the 2nd: keep in mind that the letters eta are all in the name Kate

[jaxfladude]

Do I in NE FLORIDA need to watch with any concerns ie ETA? Rains heavy? Or chance of some flooding like Fay Debbie(?) Or even Hurricane conditions at long shot?