ATL: ETA - Models

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aspen
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1021 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:50 pm

Lol the NAVGEM has a Cat 3 in the Bahamas and making landfall on Florida’s east coast. Like that’s going to happen.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1022 Postby toad strangler » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:50 pm

500 mb at 4 days will change.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1023 Postby boca » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:51 pm

It all depends on where the remnants of Eta form and the forward speed it’s moving to the NE to when it makes the turn to the NW it’s still early to determine yet.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1024 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:57 pm

Image
12z Navgem
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1025 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:59 pm

Image
12z CMC
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1026 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:00 pm

SFLcane wrote:
CourierPR wrote:You folks need to get off this Florida high kick.


Lol it’s at every opportunity to defend that Florida shield. I highly doupt Florida gets out of this one with some sort of impact. A TS is NOT a point on a map effects can extend ways away from any center.
you are in danger of a board warning with the shield comment
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1027 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:03 pm

Image
12z GFS
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1028 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:07 pm

CourierPR wrote:You folks need to get off this Florida high kick.

It’s called the SE Ridge and it’s real, not made up. :roll:

You tend to see more of in a -PNA realm.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1029 Postby chris_fit » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:11 pm

Interesting change on the 12Z Models, outside of the Euro....
They dont take Eta deep into the Gulf, if at all, before shooting it back to the northeast.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1030 Postby LarryWx » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:13 pm

12Z EPS :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1031 Postby boca » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:13 pm

If we get this or not we are in for a boatload of rain of 10 to 15” that’s crazy. I think we will have a better idea once the low reforms.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1032 Postby SFLcane » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:20 pm

It’s ok guys it’s all in good faith should be an interesting next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1033 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:23 pm

Image
Image
18z
Huge TVCN east shift near FL. Notice the departure from Honduras occurring farther E.
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1034 Postby SFLcane » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:23 pm

12z eps with a concentration across SFL.

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1035 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:12z eps with a concentration across SFL.

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRFTZv93/1-A1-E7-B28-ABE2-491-E-9-C14-01-C52-ED68546.png

Looks like 1/3 are over the peninsula while a third is over the FL straits and the other third is over Cuba. Still think it may trend north and east considering the Euros ridge bias.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1036 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:40 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/bxnXre1.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/CfahYMs.jpg
18z
Huge TVCN east shift near FL. Notice the departure from Honduras occurring farther E.

Getting Tropical Storm Fay 2008 vibes with the track guidance.
:double:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1037 Postby toad strangler » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:58 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/bxnXre1.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/CfahYMs.jpg
18z
Huge TVCN east shift near FL. Notice the departure from Honduras occurring farther E.

Getting Tropical Storm Fay 2008 vibes with the track guidance.
:double:


Yeah THAT'S a great example of not needing a strong storm by any means to wreak all kinds of havoc.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1038 Postby Ryxn » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:14 pm

Is there still a chance this could go into the Eastern Pacific and then there be a formation of a new low in the Western Caribbean? Doesn't seem to be gaining much latitude today...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1039 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:17 pm

Crazy if this come to fruition.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1040 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:38 pm

Haven’t been here for a while. Let me guess. Louisiana.
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