Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 84.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 84.0 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is
expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then
north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move farther
inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then
move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday
morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will occur over the next couple
of days as the center of Eta moves farther inland over Nicaragua
and Honduras.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of
49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 72 (116 km/h) were measured at the
Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Significant wind damage is expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and also across inland areas of northeastern
Nicaragua. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area through tonight.
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:
Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).
Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).
El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)
Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020
Satellite imagery and surface observation data indicate that
Hurricane Eta has moved farther inland over northeastern Nicaragua
this evening. Eta has maintained a well-defined CDO feature in
infrared satellite data, although passive microwave imagery is no
longer depicting an eye feature. A sustained wind of 93 kt (107 mph)
with a gust to 117 kt (135 mph) was reported at the Puerto Cabezas,
Nicaragua, airport around 03/2139 UTC while the eye of Eta was just
inland. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on a standard decay
rate for inland tropical cyclones.
The initial motion estimate is 270/05 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is fairly straightforward for the next 72 h. A narrow
ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone will cause Eta to
gradually turn toward the west-northwest over the next 12 h, and
maintain that motion through 48 h. In the 48-72 h period, Eta or its
remnants are expected to turn northward and then northeastward, and
emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula by 72 h. Thereafter, the forecast becomes more complex due
to expected mid-latitude interaction with an upper-level trough/low
currently over the southwestern U.S. that will be digging
southeastward and amplifying over the Gulf of Mexico and as far
south as the Yucatan by 96 h. The trough is expected to lift out Eta
or its remnants northeastward across Cuba, then slow down and turn
northward toward the southern Florida peninsula by 120 h when the
cyclone will be interacting with an upper-level low over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Due to this complex mid-latitude
low/trough interaction, the track forecast at days 4 and 5 contains
some uncertainty. The new NHC track forecast is just a little to the
left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, but not as far
west as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and is very
similar to the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours.
Similar to the track forecast, the intensity forecast is also
straightforward through 72 h, which calls for Eta to rapidly weaken
for the next 48 h so using a standard decay rate for inland tropical
cyclones. By 72 h and beyond, the intensity forecast becomes a
little more complicated due to the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough interaction. The global models are still in fairly good
agreement with the development of an anticyclonically curved
upper-level jetstream across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba,
and the Bahamas by 96 h. There are some subtropical jet dynamics
already occurring across the northwestern Caribbean, which has
helped to generate widespread convection across the region today. As
the jetstream amplifies ahead of the vigorous upper-level trough,
significant upper-level divergence is expected to develop, which
will cause surface pressures to fall across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Those strong pressure falls will likely aid in the
redevelopment of Eta or generate a new tropical cyclone. Regardless
of the exact formation, the global and regional models are all in
good agreement on a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing and
moving across Cuba and toward Florida on days 4 and 5. The new
official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
intensity forecast through 72 hours, and then is slightly higher
thereafter, but not as high as some of the intensity guidance like
the HCCA and ICON consensus models.
Key Messages:
1. Significant wind damage is expected along the coast of
northeastern Nicaragua and also inland overnight.
2. A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua overnight. Water levels could reach as high as
5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane
warning area.
3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.
4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves
across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 14.4N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 16.0N 89.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 16.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 17.9N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0000Z 21.1N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 24.3N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart