ATL: ETA - Models

[SFLcane]

ICON has an intensifying hurricane right off Miami at 96 hours

Borderline cat 1/2 landfall into Fort Lauderdale and exiting into the Gulf over Fort Myers

[caneseddy]

I thin this has been the strongest run of ICON so far, if I’m not mistaken

[chaser1]

ICON has an intensifying hurricane right off Miami at 96 hours

Borderline cat 1/2 landfall into Fort Lauderdale and exiting into the Gulf over Fort Myers

Track seems plausible but i'm beginning to think that the timing is a little quick. Until I see any significant latitude gain in Eta's MLC OR newly developing LLC over water, I'm inclined to be a little less bullish on any Cuba/Florida T.S or hurricane threat.

[SouthFLTropics]

There has been quite a bit of discussion tonight regarding the 00z model suite or lack thereof. I think we need to seriously consider the possibility that some models have been initializing Eta and killing it off while other models are picking up on a whole new system. This maybe has got the models doing some weird things.

Is it possible, that what we get in the Gulf of Honduras is not directly related to Eta's circulation? And, if that is the case, is it reasonable that it should be Theta and not Eta???

[SFLcane]

00z Gfs much stronger through 92 hrs...

[caneseddy]

GFS intensifying in Bahamas and starting to make left turn into south Florida at 102 hours

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Gfs much stronger through 92 hrs...

Looks like a Cat 1 moving WNW towards Florida




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[NDG]

One consensus coming out of the Global models is that Eta will have improving UL conditions over the FL Straights and SE GOM after it moves out of the NW Caribbean.
Strengthening into a hurricane by then is not out of the question if stays offshore.

[SFLcane]

00z Gfs much stronger through 92 hrs...

Looks like a Cat 1 moving WNW towards Florida

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Def some power outages looks like 985mb just to our south

[NDG]

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Evening everyone

I have not been posting but watching the latest model runs I am starting to become a bit concerned. A little wind and rain from a tropical storm is one thing, a cat 1 is a little different. Having my house and boat in Key Largo and my house in Miami I need to start thinking about my prep plans. If any o the pro Met's would like to chime in on how serious a threat this our area.

[SFLcane]

NHC latest advisory...

There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions ofCuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks SFLcane
yes I have been following it to that extent, just wondering now is there a higher chance of something more serious. Been through many storms over a lot of years, but want to make sure I know what I need to prep for.

[SouthFLTropics]

Thanks SFLcane
yes I have been following it to that extent, just wondering now is there a higher chance of something more serious. Been through many storms over a lot of years, but want to make sure I know what I need to prep for.

Rule of thumb is they say to always prep for one category higher. Right now the NHC is forecasting a Tropical Storm, so prep for a Cat 1. However, intensity forecasts are not an exact science so...perhaps prepare for more than that even. I think the models will have a better idea when we see what starts to come together in the Caribbean.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Much appreciated

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There has been quite a bit of discussion tonight regarding the 00z model suite or lack thereof. I think we need to seriously consider the possibility that some models have been initializing Eta and killing it off while other models are picking up on a whole new system. This maybe has got the models doing some weird things.

Is it possible, that what we get in the Gulf of Honduras is not directly related to Eta's circulation? And, if that is the case, is it reasonable that it should be Theta and not Eta???

I think there's a good chance this is the case. NHC has hinted at this in earlier discussions too. I think this is going to be Theta.

[SFLcane]

00z Hwrf is back into the nw Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GEFS keeps this south of Florida and moves it due west.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HWRF has a TS approaching S FL at hour 84, then takes a sharp turn to the Bahamas and becomes a Cat 1 at hour 93

[eastcoastFL]

One consensus coming out of the Global models is that Eta will have improving UL conditions over the FL Straights and SE GOM after it moves out of the NW Caribbean.
Strengthening into a hurricane by then is not out of the question if stays offshore.

I agree. Looking at the nhc track it is spending 24 hours just between Cuba and the keys

It’s barely moving from 6pm Sunday to 6pm Monday in the straights. A lot can happen there if it still has a well defined circulation at that point. We saw Laura traverse the islands as a poorly organized TS and come out stronger each time so who knows what we will have to work with then.