ATL: ETA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF with a TS into SFL Sunday




Heads NE into the Bahamas



Then strengthens and moves back west into Vero/Melbourne. What a wild set up. This all takes place Sunday to Monday so HWRF seems to be much faster and east than the NHC





One thing this model is good at is predicting the structure and it appears to show a very lopsided storm with everything to the North and East.

[LarryWx]

6z GEFS:

[N2FSU]

6z GFS; Cat 2/3 into my neck of the woods


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[xironman]

Another case of baroclinic enhancement on final approach? The GFS has been doing fairly well at 500mb.

[SFLcane]

06z Hwrf intensifies This rather quickly in the nw Caribbean brining it to a hurricane and then into south Florida 982 mb

[TheStormExpert]

06z Hwrf intensifies This rather quickly in the nw Caribbean brining it to a hurricane and then into south Florida 982 mb

Seems to be the only model that brings it to South Florida, as others such as the GFS and Euro remain south of the state.

Still thinking rain will be the main issue here in South Florida.

[SFLcane]

06z Hwrf intensifies This rather quickly in the nw Caribbean brining it to a hurricane and then into south Florida 982 mb

Seems to be the only model that brings it to South Florida, as others such as the GFS and Euro remain south of the state.

Still thinking rain will be the main issue here in South Florida.

06z Hmon has a 987mb system into Broward.

[TheStormExpert]

06z Hwrf intensifies This rather quickly in the nw Caribbean brining it to a hurricane and then into south Florida 982 mb

Seems to be the only model that brings it to South Florida, as others such as the GFS and Euro remain south of the state.

Still thinking rain will be the main issue here in South Florida.

06z Hmon has a 987mb system into Broward.

Besides the hurricane models which are no good without an actual LLC.

[gatorcane]

Models trending more towards a turn west into the Gulf before reaching South Florida as the SE ridge flexes its muscle again.

[TheStormExpert]

Models trending more towards a turn west into the Gulf before reaching South Florida as the SE ridge flexes its muscle again.

https://i.postimg.cc/wxfskc0K/storm-29-ens.gif

If that's the case then this may never reach South Florida. That SE Ridge has been a semi-permanent feature over the past many months.

[jlauderdal]

Models trending more towards a turn west into the Gulf before reaching South Florida as the SE ridge flexes its muscle again.

https://i.postimg.cc/wxfskc0K/storm-29-ens.gif

If that's the case then this may never reach South Florida. That SE Ridge has been a semi-permanent feature over the past many months.

actually worse for south Florida in terms of flooding if it stays south and west.which was always going to be the big issue...just had our first downpour of this 6+ day rain event that starts today

The ground is very saturated from a few weeks of heavy rain so this is going to be big trouble for an area that can typically take on big totals

[gatorcane]

Highly sheared according the the GFS:

[SFLcane]

Once low pressure forms tonight or tomorrow we will have a much better idea on what we might expect here in Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Models trending more towards a turn west into the Gulf before reaching South Florida as the SE ridge flexes its muscle again.

https://i.postimg.cc/wxfskc0K/storm-29-ens.gif

If that's the case then this may never reach South Florida. That SE Ridge has been a semi-permanent feature over the past many months.

actually worse for south Florida in terms of flooding if it stays south and west.which was always going to be the big issue...just had our first downpour of this 6+ day rain event that starts today

The ground is very saturated from a few weeks of heavy rain so this is going to be big trouble for an area that can typically take on big totals

Well wind obviously won't be a huge issue. But we definitely don't need the rain.

[SFLcane]

Highly sheared according the the GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/8C0DXHX3/gfs-ir-watl-fh1-115-3.gif

Sheared or not impacts will be felt across the peninsula. Still early to be banking in any models

[TheStormExpert]

Highly sheared according the the GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/8C0DXHX3/gfs-ir-watl-fh1-115-3.gif

The 00z GFS showing better UL conditions in The Bahamas must've been a fluke.

[SFLcane]

If that's the case then this may never reach South Florida. That SE Ridge has been a semi-permanent feature over the past many months.

actually worse for south Florida in terms of flooding if it stays south and west.which was always going to be the big issue...just had our first downpour of this 6+ day rain event that starts today

The ground is very saturated from a few weeks of heavy rain so this is going to be big trouble for an area that can typically take on big totals

Well wind obviously won't be a huge issue. But we definitely don't need the rain.

Based on One set of models runs? Impacts to the peninsula still are highly unknown.

[boca]

If the models are using Eta the circulation is almost in the Pacific so I saw this area WSW of Jamaica this morning look interesting. I wonder if the system that’s forecast to develop in the Gulf of Honduras is something else the models are picking up.

[Nuno]

Models trending more towards a turn west into the Gulf before reaching South Florida as the SE ridge flexes its muscle again.

https://i.postimg.cc/wxfskc0K/storm-29-ens.gif

If that's the case then this may never reach South Florida. That SE Ridge has been a semi-permanent feature over the past many months.

actually worse for south Florida in terms of flooding if it stays south and west.which was always going to be the big issue...just had our first downpour of this 6+ day rain event that starts today

The ground is very saturated from a few weeks of heavy rain so this is going to be big trouble for an area that can typically take on big totals

I already lost power for 20 mins. I'm going to hate this weekend.

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS ensembles..