ATL: ETA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/aVM52y5.png

Just a tad weaker.

[TheStormExpert]

Am I reading this wrong? HWRF seems to be quite the opposite of big loser. It's not the lowest but it's not the highest either..

Wxman specifically was calling out Day 4


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Oh, the way he wrote it out I thought he was saying all 4 days.

Right now I wouldn’t be putting any trust in any of the two hurricane models as we don’t even have an established area of low pressure yet.

[Spacecoast]

Here's a website (Univ. of Albany) that has track and intensity verification for storms.

Eta: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al292020/

Worst models for track are NGX/NOGAPS and the UKMET.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etatrack.png

HWRF is the big loser for intensity. EC is best at day 4, but only has one verification point.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etaintensity.png

Am I reading this wrong? HWRF seems to be quite the opposite of big loser. It's not the lowest but it's not the highest either..

Top 20 models for lowest track error (Eta) at 96 hr...


#22: HWRF Day 1: 44.9 Day 2: 83.1 Day 3: 107.2 Day 4: 79.1 Day 5: 60.6


Top 20 models for lowest intensity error (Eta) at 96 hr...

way down the list is HWRF
HWRF Day 1: 14.4 Day2: 18.1 Day 3: 23.8 Day 4: 19.1 Day 5: 3.2 -

Bottom line: HWRF is good for 1st 48 hrs on intensity, but degrades rapidly thereafter.

[TheStormExpert]

The 500mb pattern on the 12z GFS is something you’d expect to see more in August or September and not November. With a Strong Bermuda High just NE of Bermuda. This is the dangerous steering pattern several on here were claiming would show up in September but never did thanks to the recurving typhoons throwing a wrench in things.

[wxman57]

Here's a website (Univ. of Albany) that has track and intensity verification for storms.

Eta: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al292020/

Worst models for track are NGX/NOGAPS and the UKMET.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etatrack.png

HWRF is the big loser for intensity. EC is best at day 4, but only has one verification point.

http://wxman57.com/images/Etaintensity.png

How is the HWRF a big loser for intensity, when it consistently showed Eta becoming a Category 4 hurricane before it formed while the Euro showed only a TS/weak C1?

EC was the big loser early on, but the HWRF won the prize at 96 hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

Once again 12z Euro turns Eta WNW south of Key West only slightly stronger 00z.

[aspen]

The brief dive into the Yucatán Channel after going through the Keys is due to a broad, gyre-like setup for Eta. There’s another part of the gyre that Eta rotates around and causes this motion.

[gatorcane]

Blocked from moving into the Florida peninsula and off into the Gulf towards northern Gulf coast it goes...again...

[TheStormExpert]

If the 12z GFS were to verify it would bring some strong winds to South Florida come early Monday morning.

 https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1324401753018769409

[AutoPenalti]

Blocked from moving into the Florida peninsula and off into the Gulf towards northern Gulf coast it goes...again...

https://i.postimg.cc/Qth1gRnh/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-168.gif

Never seen anything quite like it. Pretty crazy how it just misses everything except the lower keys.

[SFLcane]

I would really take any model guidance with extreme caution Until something gets going in the nw Caribbean which will not be until late tomorrow into Saturday.

[SFLcane]

Big shift east with tcvn now across SFL!

[AutoPenalti]

Big shift east with tcvn now across SFL!

Either the UKMET has decided to shift east as well or it no longer considers it because of how much of an outlier it is.

[Blown Away]

Big shift east with tcvn now across SFL!

https://i.postimg.cc/L6PxZ53X/DC597-D22-D2-AF-4060-A126-3-E2-F6-DC605-C7.png

The 18z guidance tracks look more reasonable than what has been shown on the previous models... Now I think we model watch and have some confidence...

[SFLcane]

Another look..

[chaser1]

Big shift east with tcvn now across SFL!

https://i.postimg.cc/L6PxZ53X/DC597-D22-D2-AF-4060-A126-3-E2-F6-DC605-C7.png

I don't think the TVCN takes the 12Z Euro into account though. I'd think that would weight it more westward again

[Emmett_Brown]

Eta is shaping up to be the ultimate nowcast storm with a potentially dizzying track. However, while the operational runs are still moving all over the place, I do think model ensembles are probably pretty useful in this situation. The 12Z GEFS shows lighter shear over the E GOM for M-W next week than it did a couple of days ago

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: look at the Gulf!

[Spacecoast]

Eta is shaping up to be the ultimate nowcast storm with a potentially dizzying track. However, while the operational runs are still moving all over the place, I do think model ensembles are probably pretty useful in this situation. The 12Z GEFS shows lighter shear over the E GOM for M-W next week than it did a couple of days ago

12Z EPS: look at the Gulf!

12z EPS windtracks... Starting to settle out on strong TS in the Gulf. Lots of rain in store for SFL, & W coast.


12z GEFS - I like it when members cluster together with lower spread / higher confidence. Although there seems to be fewer members present in WCar on this run. The other members may have been left behind, or drifted into EPAC.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with some strong wind gusts over Florida maybe to gale force over the water, makes sense since this storm may become hybrid where wind field is broad and there should be a tight pressure gradient with building high pressure over the eastern seaboard,