ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Zooming out with the satellite view, it is really starting to get that look. The low may very well form further east or relocate east.

I see the old center re-emerging in the EPAC, with the storms in the Caribbean not part of Eta's low, except may the area in the far west part of the Gulf of Hondorus.

[TheStormExpert]

You seem awfully confident this will be nothing for Florida.

I never said it would be nothing, but I think it’ll just be a rain event for Florida, especially South Florida.

I suppose I worry that it could be like 1999's Irene, which while just a rain event for SFL was quite damaging in its flooding. The S & W trends worry me as it puts us on the dirty side.

Irene 1999 took a track from SW to NE through the peninsula though.

[Michele B]

Not directly related to ETA but Those rain estimates for SE Florida are looking more likely... I’m in the Suburbs of Ft Lauderdale and we’ve already picked up an inch in the last hour... streets already flooded.

Yea, those rain totals look crazy!

If they hold up, Miami, especially, will be flooded insanely. All the way up the coast, actually, but Miami seems to have major problems lately with flooding after any kind of heavy rain, never mind a TS.

[AdamFirst]

Well, consensus (TVCN) shifted from up the east coast of the Yucatan to the central Gulf at 6Z to clipping the western tip of Cuba and into the central Gulf at 12Z to cutting across central Cuba and into Miami at 18Z. Quite a bit of jumping around.

Perhaps they may be taking a center reformation in account? Or would the consensus models go off of BEST track data?

[gatorcane]

Saved wide area loop:

[AutoPenalti]

Well, consensus (TVCN) shifted from up the east coast of the Yucatan to the central Gulf at 6Z to clipping the western tip of Cuba and into the central Gulf at 12Z to cutting across central Cuba and into Miami at 18Z. Quite a bit of jumping around.

Perhaps they may be taking a center reformation in account? Or would the consensus models go off of BEST track data?

FWIW I found out what the TVCN actually does other than average out solutions...

TVCN takes the the average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model.

-The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the HWRF model.

-The GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the HMON, UKMET with quality control applied to NAVGEM, and GFS.

So the TVCN involves the ECMWF, HWRF, HMON, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS.

I think it takes into account the Best Track Surface Plot Analysis as well for Initialization.

[chaser1]

Really looking like convection congealing just north of far W. Honduras. I believe "lift-off" will emanate from that point. If so, next question is "how quickly" will it deepen and how soon before tracking NE.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Information to know Auto

Once we do get a COC for a point to start with the track of what ever develops should become more clear.

[Weatherboy1]

Convection really starting to blow up (technical weather term there I know lol) in NW Caribbean. Have to think center reformation won’t take a heck of a lot longer if this continues

[TheStormExpert]

Winds up to 30kts. now as of the 4pm advisory, here's the latest visible.

[SFLcane]

Another one bites the dust apparently here across SFL just about out of the cone. UKMET is like the Euro.

[Cat5James]

Another one bites the dust apparently here across SFL just about out of the cone. UKMET is like the Euro.

Most of the weather in the NE quadrant... cone is only showing where the center will be... I highly doubt that concentration of bad weather misses S FL

[Cat5James]

If anything these adjustments westward would mean all that rainfall originally projected to go to the Bahamas would
Be on top of the Penninsula...

[Nuno]

I never said it would be nothing, but I think it’ll just be a rain event for Florida, especially South Florida.

I suppose I worry that it could be like 1999's Irene, which while just a rain event for SFL was quite damaging in its flooding. The S & W trends worry me as it puts us on the dirty side.

Irene 1999 took a track from SW to NE through the peninsula though.

I mean in its overall impacts. SFL was on the dirty side for Irene

[jlauderdal]

Another one bites the dust apparently here across SFL just about out of the cone. UKMET is like the Euro.

its still a big rain event...we already had an inch today.

[TheStormExpert]

Another one bites the dust apparently here across SFL just about out of the cone. UKMET is like the Euro.

I've began to lose count of how many storms we've been in the cone for over the past five seasons only to get sideswiped, or it completely misses to the north, east, west, or south.

This is surely some dumb luck!

[Nuno]

Another one bites the dust apparently here across SFL just about out of the cone. UKMET is like the Euro.

Its really not too different from the previous track. Until we know where the center is going to be, NHC is probably staying put for now. Regardless its going to be a very ugly few days

[AutoPenalti]

Meh, that track may shift back.

Remember the cone just expresses where the center may be. Impacts will be felt regardless.

[TheStormExpert]

Meh, that track may shift back.

Remember the cone just expresses where the center may be. Impacts will be felt regardless.

The trend this season is for the forecast cones to trend west as time progresses it seems, with only a few exceptions like Sally.

[SFLcane]

Not to often you see the nhc not side by side with the TCVN consensus model. Not to sure what the overall thinking is.