ATL: ETA - Models

[gatorcane]

Closeup, some rain and breezy conditions but nothing to lose sleep over in South Florida if the model is right.

[TheStormExpert]

Closeup, some rain and breezy conditions but nothing to lose sleep over in South Florida if the model is right.

https://i.postimg.cc/Kzj8sm65/gfs-ir-seus-fh37-85.gif

These models have been so horrible this season, maybe we can put the thoughts of Eta regaining hurricane strength to rest.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I think the +60 knot winds shown by some model solution is a result of the tight pressure gradient (mentioned earlier by wxman57) and not really a deepening tropical system. A late season sloppy mess.

[gatorcane]

Much lower accumulated rainfall for South Florida on the 12Z GFS run. I am seeing maybe 3-4 inches instead of the 10+ inches it was showing the last two runs.

[Blown Away]

Much weaker and sheared on the GFS not to mention it is transitioning to subtropical.

https://i.postimg.cc/jjz5J8zz/gfs-ir-watl-fh7-61.gif

Models seem pretty consistent in a hybrid mess near Florida. May be a case where someone 150 miles to the north get worse impacts than someone who is under the center.

Back n forth... 06z models showed nice closed low... Only conclusion I can see is that W bend out in to the GOM is gradually becoming a slight W drift over or just off Fl W coast after E coast FL landfall. The future track is looking more reasonable w/o all the herky jerky direction changes... It’s smoothing out, NE until Cuba, then NNW turn, then NW up to the Big Bend just offshore... It’s Hurricane King track, good analog.

[TheStormExpert]

Much lower accumulated rainfall for South Florida on the 12Z GFS run. I am seeing maybe 3-4 inches.

Palm Beach County probably wouldn’t even pick up more than 1-2 inches based on the 12z GFS’s satellite presentation.

[TheStormExpert]

If the rest of the 12z models come in weaker I think we can forget any hurricane watches or warnings happening.

[boca]

Sun/mon light rain and 15 to 20mph is my take on this weather event (non issue).

[Loveweather12]

If the rest of the 12z models come in weaker I think we can forget any hurricane watches or warnings happening.

Nope I don’t see that happening. These storms are unpredictable. I remember many saying this was going in EPac. I’ve learned to let Mother Nature do her thing & I just prepare

[Nuno]

Got to love how it takes one model run to immediately change the mood of this place.

[TheStormExpert]

If the rest of the 12z models come in weaker I think we can forget any hurricane watches or warnings happening.

Nope I don’t see that happening. These storms are unpredictable. I remember many saying this was going in EPac. I’ve learned to let Mother Nature do her thing & I just prepare

I’d hate to see the NHC put up hurricane watches or warnings again for this part of Florida only for the storm to underperform or fall apart. Remember Isaias? Just think of all the complacency that will continue to grow.

[Loveweather12]

If the rest of the 12z models come in weaker I think we can forget any hurricane watches or warnings happening.

Nope I don’t see that happening. These storms are unpredictable. I remember many saying this was going in EPac. I’ve learned to let Mother Nature do her thing & I just prepare

I’d hate to see the NHC put up hurricane watches or warnings again for this part of Florida only for the storm to underperform or fall apart. Remember Isaias? Just think of all the complacency that will continue to grow.

Yes. That complacency is so there now. I don’t even
Know if people would prepare for this one. I’m On treasure coast & I know people who don’t care. Complacency is a big issue & I hope people take stuff seriously in the future.

[SFLcane]

I love S2k! If funny how when intensity is up on the models some posters vanish then when 1 run trends a bit weaker it’s time to downcast or there is nothing to worry. Fact is nhc does not put out forecast or change thoughts on 1 gfs run lol if the trend persist into tomorrow they maybe it’s a trend. Euro trended stronger and recon is on its way so we will know more later today. Let’s see if the rest of the 12z suite comes in weaker

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF out through 12 hours and already 7MB weaker.

[TheStormExpert]

Nope I don’t see that happening. These storms are unpredictable. I remember many saying this was going in EPac. I’ve learned to let Mother Nature do her thing & I just prepare

I’d hate to see the NHC put up hurricane watches or warnings again for this part of Florida only for the storm to underperform or fall apart. Remember Isaias? Just think of all the complacency that will continue to grow.

Yes. That complacency is so there now. I don’t even
Know if people would prepare for this one. I’m On treasure coast & I know people who don’t care. Complacency is a big issue & I hope people take stuff seriously in the future.

Honestly I saw small businesses boarding up for Isaias back in late-July/early-August. Can’t blame them but it’s a lot of work prepping for these storms. Rather be safe than sorry, but I don’t think Eta will be all that bad here.

[AutoPenalti]

12Z HWRF our through 12 hours and already 7MB weaker.

999 compared to 995 at 21hrs.
Coming in slightly weaker on approach.

HMON too.

[Blown Away]

I love S2k! If funny how when intensity is up on the models some posters vanish then when 1 run trends a bit weaker it’s time to downcast or there is nothing to worry. Fact is nhc does not put out forecast or change thoughts on 1 gfs run lol if the trend persist into tomorrow they maybe it’s a trend. Euro trended stronger and recon is on its way so we will know more later today. Let’s see if the rest of the 12z suite comes in weaker

Initialization was a degree W of 06z... These models struggle to find the LLC in the first 20 hours... Likely going to be more W down the road

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF seems slower on approach.

[TheProfessor]

Recon will be critical for the hurricane models, the HWRF briefly develops a 2nd storm(likely seeing competing circulations) that's actually stronger than the one it's tracking. If this plays out it will almost certainly lead to a strung scenario. If recon finds that there's one dominant circulation forming then we're going to see some different solutions from the models.

[Blown Away]

HWRF seems slower on approach.

Initialized @17.6N/87.5W full 1 degree W of 06z and W of last advisory... Notice at 21 hours the 2 competing Lows are back.