ATL: ETA - Models

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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1381 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:52 am

Blown Away wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:HWRF seems slower on approach.


Initialized @17.6N/87.5W full 1 degree W of 06z and W of last advisory... Notice at 21 hours the 2 competing Lows are back.

Yeah, I noticed that.

HWRF has been decent in forecasting reformations with its mesoscale resolution. I wonder if it will verify.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1382 Postby Cat5James » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:03 pm

HWRF stronger and farther East thru 45 hours
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1383 Postby caneseddy » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:07 pm

HMON stronger. 981 mb starting to bend towards South Florida. Extrapolating look like Broward/Palm Beach area. Also slower as well

About to landfall as a Cat 1/2 in Palm Beach
Last edited by caneseddy on Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1384 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:09 pm

12z HWRF/HMON going w/ SFL landfall probably nearing Cat 2...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1385 Postby caneseddy » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:10 pm

HWRF at 51 hours at 983 south of Andros heading NNW.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1386 Postby SFLcane » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:11 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z HWRF/HMON going w/ SFL landfall probably nearing Cat 2...


Wow!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1387 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:11 pm

Well, that was a plot twist. Even with the relocations.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1388 Postby caneseddy » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:12 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:12z HWRF/HMON going w/ SFL landfall probably nearing Cat 2...


Wow!


Yep HMON landfalls in Palm Beach as 1/2
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1389 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:12 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:12z HWRF/HMON going w/ SFL landfall probably nearing Cat 2...


Wow!
An hour ago it was going to be weak...now its a cat 1-2
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1390 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:12 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z HWRF/HMON going w/ SFL landfall probably nearing Cat 2...

And yet people keep saying it's not going to do anything...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1391 Postby SFLcane » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:13 pm

Hurricane incoming...

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1392 Postby caneseddy » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:13 pm

CMC has a TS landfalling upper keys. Dirty side over metro South Florida
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1393 Postby Cat5James » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:13 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Blown Away wrote:12z HWRF/HMON going w/ SFL landfall probably nearing Cat 2...

And yet people keep saying it's not going to do anything...

Just 1 or 2 people who love to insist storms wont even come to Florida... and then downplay the storm if it looks like its coming... the same people have been very quiet the last 24 hours until the latest GFS
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1394 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:14 pm

We need recon now. I can’t begin to imagine the importance of this mission.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1395 Postby SFLcane » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:16 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:We need recon now. I can’t begin to imagine the importance of this mission.


There are on the way!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1396 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:17 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:We need recon now. I can’t begin to imagine the importance of this mission.

I hope they've got the maintenance issues figured out
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1397 Postby caneseddy » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:17 pm

HWRF about to make landfall as a 1/2 around Aventura/Hallandale Beach area

Landfalls right on the Miami-Dade/Broward line and then takes Alligator Alley straight west to Naples
Last edited by caneseddy on Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1398 Postby SFLcane » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:17 pm

This will put your lights out...

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1399 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:17 pm

If you average out the 6z run and the 12z of the HWRF, intensity appears to be roughly the same.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1400 Postby Nuno » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:19 pm

SFLcane wrote:This will put your lights out...

https://i.imgur.com/zVPLxLz.png


We're going to get hurricane watches, not tropical storm watches, at this rate.
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