ATL: ETA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Current NHC advisory has Eta through the northern Keys... This map has OFCL way south? I don't think the next advisory has come out? Little puzzled by this map...

I’m confused as well because it has the GFS down by the middle/lower Keys when the last run was further north with the HWRF also more north.. don’t see how the OFCL track shifted south...

Don't confuse OFCI (6hr interpolated previous cycle), with OFCL latest NHC guidance, not shown,or released yet).
Same thing with AVNI, and AVNO (latest GFS Operational).
The "I" always means 6 hr previous cycle. The previous, or late cycle data may not be the latest, but it doesn't make it invalid either.

So this is using 06z data?

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z HWRF and HMON were into SE Florida.

This is true! That map is not correct

The map is correct, and clearly labeled.
It shows OFCI, not OFCL.
It shows HWFI / HMNI, not HWRF / HMON.
It shows AVNI,not AVNO.
This is the way it has always been.
Levi will add the OFCL to this map when it is available.

It's not correct! Check the latest 12z HWRF and HMON to see why.

[Spacecoast]

This is true! That map is not correct

The map is correct, and clearly labeled.
It shows OFCI, not OFCL.
It shows HWFI / HMNI, not HWRF / HMON.
It shows AVNI,not AVNO.
This is the way it has always been.
Levi will add the OFCL to this map when it is available.

Great news then let’s hope it continues. I will enjoy the rainy breezy weekend

We all know what the latest HWRF,HMON,AVNO, runs have shown, so we can predict where upcoming TVCN, and OFCL will track (further north shifts towards MIA).
My point is that late cycle data (including ensembles, and interpolated previous cycle) often prove to be more accurate than the latest operational runs. This is why OFCL has such a low track error.They have the advantage of analyzing operationals, early cycle guidance, late cycle (including ensembles), before releasing their forecast. More analysis equals more accuarcy, but it takes longer..

[SFLcane]

The 12z HWRF and HMON were into SE Florida.

This is true! That map is not correct

The map is correct, and clearly labeled.
It shows OFCI, not OFCL.
It shows HWFI / HMNI, not HWRF / HMON.
It shows AVNI,not AVNO.
This is the way it has always been.
Levi will add the OFCL to this map when it is available.[/quite]

Which will be likely be further south.

[Spacecoast]

This is true! That map is not correct

The map is correct, and clearly labeled.
It shows OFCI, not OFCL.
It shows HWFI / HMNI, not HWRF / HMON.
It shows AVNI,not AVNO.
This is the way it has always been.
Levi will add the OFCL to this map when it is available.

It's not correct! Check the latest 12z HWRF and HMON to see why.

Does the map show HMON, or HWRF??
NO! It shows HMNI, and HWFI. I have explained the diffference.

[TheStormExpert]

12z EPS keeps Eta south of the peninsula and through the FL Keys.

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1324803880492900359

[TheProfessor]

This is true! That map is not correct

The map is correct, and clearly labeled.
It shows OFCI, not OFCL.
It shows HWFI / HMNI, not HWRF / HMON.
It shows AVNI,not AVNO.
This is the way it has always been.
Levi will add the OFCL to this map when it is available.[/quite]

Which will be likely be further south.

The HWFI and HMNI are definitely wonky as they don't usually differ from their related HWRF and HMON models. I'm assuming this is due to a change of position of the storm. If so then we can't really take much from the early 18z cycle until we see the HWRF and HMON run at the current location. Basically with the center further south the 12z runs were shifted further south and that's not always how the results end up being.

[sponger]

Surely goes against anything wxman57 said this afternoon I highly doubt any watches are used with the look of those 18z plots. I think the Ukmet caused this shift If map is correct

I'm pretty sure Wxman57 is using reverse psychology.

The force is strong with that one!

[Spacecoast]

I’m confused as well because it has the GFS down by the middle/lower Keys when the last run was further north with the HWRF also more north.. don’t see how the OFCL track shifted south...

Don't confuse OFCI (6hr interpolated previous cycle), with OFCL latest NHC guidance, not shown,or released yet).
Same thing with AVNI, and AVNO (latest GFS Operational).
The "I" always means 6 hr previous cycle. The previous, or late cycle data may not be the latest, but it doesn't make it invalid either.

So this is using 06z data?

I apologize. Perhaps my explanation was murky.

The 18z 'Latest track Guidance" posted by Levi shows 6 hr interpolated data (the tracks ending with "I") which are derived from the operational runs intialized at 12z. The exception to this would be sometimes you will see the tracks ending with "2" (example UKX2), which would be 12 hr previous cycle.
The tracks listed HWFI, and HMNI match the 12z runs,as do the CEMI, UKXI
However, it does appear that several plot points on the AVNI track does not match the 12z GFS run, which IS incorrect.
I did not notice this error before.

EDIT: * Levi jusT now added the OFCL, track to the chart, which further N of the previous OFCI, (but AVNI is still off).

Tropical Atlantic shows exactly the same as Levi's for 18z, except for the AVNI track, which is correct (on TA), and matches the 12z opeational run.

[SFLcane]

Going to be real interesting to see the guidance tonight and over night.

[Loveweather12]

Going to be real interesting to see the guidance tonight and over night.

What’s your prediction on what it may do?

[Blown Away]

Going to be real interesting to see the guidance tonight and over night.

What’s your prediction on what it may do?

Whatever the Euro does seems to be the answer not matter what with Eta.

[Cat5James]

GFS farther North and a bit stronger... did this run initialize properly?

[SFLcane]

Gfs stronger and further north 989mb into SFL

[Blown Away]

GFS farther North and a bit stronger... did this run initialize properly?

Yes, I think it did, the Low was farther S at the start...

18z GFS holds serve with TS/Cat 1 into @Homestead in @70 hrs... Continues NW across peninsula and offshore just S of Tampa

[lhpfish]

Gfs has been very consistent

[Blown Away]

Gfs has been very consistent

18z GFS landfalls just S of Miami and continues NW up the peninsula all the way to just off shore Cedar Key, pauses then gets absorbed by the front... Wow pretty much dropped the whole stall or left hook shown by Euro... Just a nice smooth NW track from E Cuba up FL peninsula to Big Bend and then absorbed off to the NE...

[SFLcane]

[TheStormExpert]

Gfs has been very consistent

With track, not intensity.

[lhpfish]

Correct