ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheProfessor]

Ahhhh Joe .... a major?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1325185166839517184?s=20

Uh... Highly doubt it becomes a major at this point... Cat 1 maybe, but not a major

If it stays in the southern Gulf for a while the environment could be favorable for rapid intensification once again, this is after it passes Florida of course. It's going to depend on if Eta decides to sit around the warm waters for a while or move north into cool waters. This scenario certainly can't be ruled out.

Edit: 18z GFS seems to think a scenario like this could happen as well.

[jlauderdal]

Strong fast moving squalls looking most concentrated around Port St Lucie, but especially training across the FLL area. And this stuff is well north of the thick mass associated with the old frontal trough across the Florida straits now and slowing lifting northward beginning to affect the Keys now. A wet windy 3 days for sure. Curious to see if T.S. warnings will soon be extended as far north as the Cape area; perhaps later this evening.

Here in palm city it’s been on and off extremely gusty heavy side ways downpours

West coast here (near Ft. Myers) and we had one MAJOR squall come through. Heavy rain and winds about 35-40 mph.

About 2 pm

that line coming through broward now is pounding us, going over .7 on the day with thunder too

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon everyone
Shutters closed boat tied down everything picked up here in Key Largo. Had several really nasty squalls blow through here, been windy since yesterday.

[Mouton]

GFS showing peak depth 969MB on Wednesday late evening with storm in GOM slightly north of Key West latitude. WOW.

[Cat5James]

The street flooding in Broward is unbelievable right now and the rain doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon.

[AutoPenalti]

Getting hit with squally weather.


Really nasty right now.

[sponger]

Ahhhh Joe .... a major?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1325185166839517184?s=20

Uh... Highly doubt it becomes a major at this point... Cat 1 maybe, but not a major

I gave up being surprised about 12 surprises ago. 2020 is legit.

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon on the way at a good time, big blowup of convection in progress

[underthwx]

Ahhhh Joe .... a major?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1325185166839517184?s=20

Uh... Highly doubt it becomes a major at this point... Cat 1 maybe, but not a major

I gave up being surprised about 12 surprises ago. 2020 is legit.

Lol...you got that right...

[alienstorm]

Seems like the dry air is being kept at bay not a good sign

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

[SouthFLTropics]

Some pretty good hot towers showing up in the late visible images of the day. You can see the shadows showing up.

[Nimbus]

Seems like the dry air is being kept at bay not a good sign

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

That upper level low cutting off over western Cuba is pretty moist as is the air to the east of it expanding north. 18Z models should be interesting and the recon mission should find better organization under the latest burst.

[sponger]

Some pretty good hot towers showing up in the late visible images of the day. You can see the shadows showing up.

https://i.imgur.com/9H0rUBf.gif[/url]

What an amazing view of the exploding convection!

[sunnyday]

Not one drop of rain here today. No wind to speak of, either.

[ElectricStorm]

Ahhhh Joe .... a major?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1325185166839517184?s=20

Uh... Highly doubt it becomes a major at this point... Cat 1 maybe, but not a major

If it stays in the southern Gulf for a while the environment could be favorable for rapid intensification once again, this is after it passes Florida of course. It's going to depend on if Eta decides to sit around the warm waters for a while or move north into cool waters. This scenario certainly can't be ruled out.

Edit: 18z GFS seems to think a scenario like this could happen as well.

Yeah I guess so. I mean it is 2020 so anything is possible...

[robbielyn]

Not one drop of rain here today. No wind to speak of, either.

Really? where do you live? it's very best here two countries north of temps in sitting hill and it's very windy here it is actually picking up even more. no rain though yet

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1325165043932160000

[wxman57]

Eta's center appears to be southwest of the heavy squalls now. SW shear is increasing and dry air is flowing into the SW part of the storm.

I don't think that the NHC likes the new (18Z) consensus run. Inland into Tampa Wednesday then a U-turn and SW to near western Cuba by next Friday. I'm sure Jack Beven saw it before he released the NHC's 21Z track. He elected to just slow Eta to a crawl west of Florida and wait until there is higher confidence in the forecast beyond 48 hrs. Final point now 27N/84W vs. 28.5N/84W in previous advisories. I have it finally tracking north of 25N way out at 85W. I hate this storm...

[blacktopninja]

I've always thought Eta was going to loop cause the upper level forecast looked similar to something you'd see in winter storm, where the trough goes negative-tilt and then loops after it becomes cut-off from the trough.

[Jr0d]

The apparent low northwest of Cuba caught my attention. It has really enhanced our rain in the Keys. It some pretty good outflow and seems to be helping keep some of the dry air away from Eta.

I know the NHC mentioned the trough becoming a cutoff low down the road, and this is what will merge with Eta to become a hybrid system...I doubt this little low is that cutoff.

A few days ago, the ICON showed something like this but now nothing. I sure I am missing something, but I am intrigued by this feature.