WPAC: VAMCO - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

The 2nd and stronger model storm the GFS is showing

93W.INVEST

93W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.7.5N.135E

[Hayabusa]

12Z ECMWF peaks it as 953 mb over the SCS

5 day ensembles
GFS

ECMWF

[Hayabusa]

12Z HWRF run of Atsani

[euro6208]

12z global EURO has more strengthening before landfalling in Luzon, 995 mb, and hits Vietnam near peak intensity, 963 mb...

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N
134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 69 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080045Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME FORMATIVE BANDING IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

First HWRF run, and fast, only 6 hours after it was tagged.
RI's it to mid cat 4 before landfall

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 080730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/080730Z-090600ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071352ZNOV2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071451ZNOV2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 132
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) LARGELY OBSCURED BY FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
INDICATION OF POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH. A 080430Z
AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REINFORCES THIS PERCEPTION,
REVEALING FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE NORTH. INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Already TD

WWJP27 RJTD 080600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 132E WEST SLOWLY.

[mrbagyo]

This disturbance will make an odyssey towards the Philippines and PAGASA will give it the name "Ulysses"

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

00z ECMWF simulated IR

[mrbagyo]

There's still a lot of untapped energy along its projected path. HWRF's output isn't farfetched

[Hayabusa]

HWRF still the same intensity at landfall but it peaks it at 130 knots.

[euro6208]

Lots of time over water.

[euro6208]

Invest 93W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 08, 2020:

Location: 9.3°N 133.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Starting to consolidate some broad vorticity.

[Hayabusa]

Minimal typhoon before landfall

TD
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 8 November 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 8 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°50' (8.8°)
E133°50' (133.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 9 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°40' (12.7°)
E130°35' (130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°05' (14.1°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10' (14.2°)
E124°25' (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 450 km (245 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°00' (14.0°)
E118°40' (118.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 570 km (310 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°05' (14.1°)
E114°05' (114.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 700 km (390 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 800 km (430 NM)