ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ObsessedMiami]

Haven’t seen the sun in Kendall for two days. Super dark clouds and off and on hard rain but very brief. Winds are nothing unusual yet.

[SFLcane]

Banding will continue to increase in frequency throughout the day across SFL. Check out the HRRR

[got ants?]

Here in Hollywood its been a busy night rain wise. Lots a squalls all night long coming in off the ocean heading due west. I just looked outside and the streets are already starting to flood. So far, my backyard ( faces east) hasn't flooded yet, but on Halloween we had 6" of standing water, right over my septic tank/Drainfield. I had to pop the clean out valve to purge it, so we could flush our toilets. Might have to do that again tomorrow.

My concern is not that this is going to be a big event, but all the rain we've had this past month has not yet perculated away yet. 10 " in a day we can normally handle, but due to already saturation, might cause problems we'd might not otherwise see.

[NDG]

Looking at Cuban radar, surface reports and satellite, Eta's CoC is getting back over water as I type this, that was a quick trick across land.

[NDG]

[NDG]

Already near TS force wind gusts along the immediate coast of SE FL.

[NDG]

NOAA recon approaching descending as it approaches Eta.

[NDG]

Eta is re-firing deep convection as soon as it is getting back over water.

[Nuno]

Eta is re-firing deep convection as soon as it is getting back over water.

https://i.imgur.com/4aIepdv.jpg

Seems like recon is arriving at the right time. Fingers crossed they won't have any issues...

[NDG]

There's the very unusual strong ridge this morning that will start making Eta to start heading westward during the day.

[NDG]

Recon went through the deep convection, winds were all flagged.

URNT15 KWBC 081409
NOAA2 1329A ETA HDOB 10 20201108
140000 2301N 07926W 8418 01515 0012 +175 +171 042031 031 043 005 00
140030 2301N 07924W 8418 01515 0011 +177 +168 037032 034 047 003 00
140100 2300N 07922W 8415 01518 0010 +180 +165 034032 032 045 006 00
140130 2300N 07920W 8432 01496 0006 +186 +165 027033 035 045 005 00
140200 2259N 07918W 8432 01494 0002 +185 +154 018036 037 046 005 00
140230 2259N 07916W 8443 01484 0003 +183 +153 014037 039 046 014 00
140300 2258N 07914W 8450 01478 0007 +181 +153 005034 035 046 025 00
140330 2258N 07912W 8423 01503 0007 +175 +155 001033 035 051 034 00
140400 2257N 07910W 8424 01493 9995 +171 //// 023027 029 054 048 01
140430 2256N 07908W 8400 01511 9989 +170 //// 046044 054 055 057 01
140500 2256N 07906W 8382 01525 9985 +166 //// 046044 047 057 050 01
140530 2255N 07904W 8338 01552 9976 +160 //// 044048 052 045 067 01
140600 2255N 07903W 8219 01690 9978 +159 //// 069037 047 047 066 01
140630 2255N 07901W 8121 01789 9974 +158 //// 094038 040 055 041 05
140700 2254N 07859W 8219 01689 9971 +168 //// 102036 038 046 007 01
140730 2254N 07857W 8336 01568 9973 +171 //// 106029 030 042 003 01
140800 2254N 07855W 8441 01453 9970 +176 //// 121023 024 039 000 01
140830 2254N 07854W 8418 01473 9966 +182 //// 115020 021 040 000 01
140900 2253N 07852W 8416 01479 9965 +188 +170 120021 023 040 000 00
140930 2252N 07850W 8431 01465 9967 +187 +164 130025 026 039 000 00

[NDG]

Recon finds unflagged 70 knot flight level winds.

00
URNT15 KWBC 081419
NOAA2 1329A ETA HDOB 11 20201108
141000 2252N 07848W 8430 01466 9968 +183 +164 134027 029 039 000 00
141030 2251N 07846W 8430 01464 9966 +184 +164 140028 029 040 000 00
141100 2251N 07845W 8428 01466 9960 +194 +161 142033 034 039 000 00
141130 2250N 07843W 8430 01462 9958 +196 +159 146033 035 040 000 00
141200 2250N 07841W 8431 01460 9958 +193 +167 144035 036 044 000 00
141230 2249N 07839W 8431 01458 9959 +188 +170 151034 036 045 000 00
141300 2249N 07838W 8431 01460 9962 +185 +171 159038 039 047 000 00
141330 2248N 07836W 8432 01462 9964 +186 +169 169038 039 047 000 00
141400 2247N 07834W 8428 01471 9969 +185 +167 169040 040 048 000 00
141430 2247N 07832W 8428 01474 9971 +187 +168 170040 041 049 000 00
141500 2246N 07830W 8426 01477 9978 +178 +168 173041 042 049 000 00
141530 2246N 07828W 8432 01470 9983 +170 //// 178046 048 052 001 01
141600 2245N 07827W 8424 01479 9985 +170 //// 181047 049 052 001 01
141630 2245N 07825W 8431 01481 9988 +171 //// 184047 049 053 001 01
141700 2244N 07823W 8416 01495 9992 +169 //// 182052 054 054 002 01
141730 2243N 07821W 8417 01494 9995 +163 //// 182056 061 055 009 01
141800 2243N 07819W 8429 01485 0004 +151 //// 180066 069 057 008 01
141830 2242N 07818W 8417 01499 0008 +153 //// 180063 064 059 003 01
141900 2242N 07816W 8418 01500 0010 +162 //// 178065 070 057 003 01
141930 2241N 07814W 8432 01495 0012 +167 +161 188066 070 057 004 00

[SFLcane]

Recon finds unflagged 70 knot flight level winds.

00
URNT15 KWBC 081419
NOAA2 1329A ETA HDOB 11 20201108
141000 2252N 07848W 8430 01466 9968 +183 +164 134027 029 039 000 00
141030 2251N 07846W 8430 01464 9966 +184 +164 140028 029 040 000 00
141100 2251N 07845W 8428 01466 9960 +194 +161 142033 034 039 000 00
141130 2250N 07843W 8430 01462 9958 +196 +159 146033 035 040 000 00
141200 2250N 07841W 8431 01460 9958 +193 +167 144035 036 044 000 00
141230 2249N 07839W 8431 01458 9959 +188 +170 151034 036 045 000 00
141300 2249N 07838W 8431 01460 9962 +185 +171 159038 039 047 000 00
141330 2248N 07836W 8432 01462 9964 +186 +169 169038 039 047 000 00
141400 2247N 07834W 8428 01471 9969 +185 +167 169040 040 048 000 00
141430 2247N 07832W 8428 01474 9971 +187 +168 170040 041 049 000 00
141500 2246N 07830W 8426 01477 9978 +178 +168 173041 042 049 000 00
141530 2246N 07828W 8432 01470 9983 +170 //// 178046 048 052 001 01
141600 2245N 07827W 8424 01479 9985 +170 //// 181047 049 052 001 01
141630 2245N 07825W 8431 01481 9988 +171 //// 184047 049 053 001 01
141700 2244N 07823W 8416 01495 9992 +169 //// 182052 054 054 002 01
141730 2243N 07821W 8417 01494 9995 +163 //// 182056 061 055 009 01
141800 2243N 07819W 8429 01485 0004 +151 //// 180066 069 057 008 01
141830 2242N 07818W 8417 01499 0008 +153 //// 180063 064 059 003 01
141900 2242N 07816W 8418 01500 0010 +162 //// 178065 070 057 003 01
141930 2241N 07814W 8432 01495 0012 +167 +161 188066 070 057 004 00

Wait what?

[NDG]

[NDG]

Unflagged 58 knot SFMR winds.

621
URNT15 KWBC 081429
NOAA2 1329A ETA HDOB 12 20201108
142000 2241N 07812W 8417 01512 0017 +169 +167 186064 066 058 005 00
142030 2240N 07810W 8416 01520 0023 +164 //// 181058 060 054 014 01
142100 2240N 07809W 8422 01513 0020 +172 +166 182057 058 057 003 00
142130 2239N 07807W 8429 01514 0023 +180 +158 181054 055 056 002 00
142200 2238N 07805W 8431 01515 0025 +186 +138 184052 053 055 000 00
142230 2238N 07803W 8426 01523 0031 +186 +131 185049 050 053 000 00
142300 2237N 07802W 8425 01532 0036 +185 +133 189046 047 051 000 00
142330 2237N 07800W 8424 01534 0037 +187 +135 190044 045 048 000 00
142400 2236N 07758W 8424 01536 0039 +186 +141 189044 045 047 000 00
142430 2235N 07756W 8423 01538 0044 +182 +147 183045 046 046 000 00
142500 2235N 07754W 8426 01534 0049 +173 +158 180047 048 046 000 00
142530 2234N 07752W 8430 01532 0048 +174 +162 181044 046 046 001 00
142600 2233N 07750W 8417 01544 0046 +176 +161 179044 047 045 000 00
142630 2233N 07749W 8422 01539 0049 +175 +165 181044 048 044 000 00
142700 2232N 07747W 8406 01553 0048 +175 +170 183047 051 044 000 00
142730 2232N 07745W 8424 01543 0050 +174 +170 185049 053 045 000 00
142800 2231N 07743W 8418 01540 0048 +174 +168 186049 051 043 000 00
142830 2231N 07741W 8431 01538 0046 +181 +170 179047 048 044 000 00
142900 2230N 07739W 8416 01553 0052 +178 +160 188049 050 042 000 00
142930 2229N 07738W 8433 01530 0050 +179 +169 186048 050 041 000 03

[ronjon]

NHC alluded to some strengthening as shear drops off north of Cuba. Based on radar, ETA appears to have turned north now. Should also be a slight slowing of forward speed today. Have to keep our eyes on intensity today as ETA may make a run at a CAT 1 storm as it approaches the upper keys tonight.

[wxman57]

Hurricane warning about to be issued for south Florida. With winds already 60 kts (70 mph), it's only 4 mph away.

[NDG]

Cuban radar now showing an eye like feature, but is most likely in the mid levels as the recon went through it and didn't show much of a wind shift and calm winds.

[wxman57]

It's moving quickly enough that weather in Miami may be improving by sunrise Monday.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Flight level 70 knots, SFMR 59 knots. Pressure up a tad to 995mb. We'll probably see a bump up to 70mph at 10 am.