ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nuno]

Should Eta intensify a bit more quickly before Florida would that push it westwards sooner?

[AutoPenalti]

It's moving quickly enough that weather in Miami may be improving by sunrise Monday.

Looks like back to work!

[SFLcane]

Hurricane warning about to be issued for south Florida. With winds already 60 kts (70 mph), it's only 4 mph away.

Oh my

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1325445985145905152

[Jr0d]

Flight level 70 knots, SFMR 59 knots. Pressure up a tad to 995mb. We'll probably see a bump up to 70mph at 10 am.

Also hurricane warnings for the Keys and South Florida is most likely to be up.

[Jr0d]

Hurricane warning about to be issued for south Florida. With winds already 60 kts (70 mph), it's only 4 mph away.

The residents in the Keys are not prepared for a hurricane. This is going to be a rough night for me in Key West.

The bright side is it looks like it will not be a major rain maker for the Keys,(at least no where near Sally's 10" in 6 hours) hopefully you can confirm?

[Evil Jeremy]

If a direct strike on SFL is now considered highly unlikely, as it seems this will now move through the Keys, how far North can we expect a Hurricane warning to be issued?

[chris46n]

All weather reporting stations on east coast usa reporting mb rising including florida. We have a ts to our south heading north.

[StPeteMike]

If a direct strike on SFL is now considered highly unlikely, as it seems this will now move through the Keys, how far North can we expect a Hurricane warning to be issued?

I would say the southern half of Miami-Dade would be in hurricane warning. Will likely have a small field of hurricane winds within it while it passes closely to the south. Miami will get some hurricane gusts though within some squalls.

[cycloneye]

A HURRICANE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hurricane Warning just for the Keys. Sounds right.

[cycloneye]

Now forecast to be a hurricane.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.5N 82.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 85.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

[Bimms]

With the potential jump in intensity, does it seem possible that any inland Broward areas (specifically the Coral Springs area) will see high wind gusts or possible Hurricane force gusts or warnings, or will this be predominantly to the south in Miami Dade County?

[AutoPenalti]

With the potential jump in intensity, does it seem possible that any inland Broward areas (specifically the Coral Springs area) will see high wind gusts or possible Hurricane force gusts or warnings, or will this be predominantly to the south in Miami Dade County?

Remember that with a tight pressure gradient, TS gusts may be experience well outside the cone.

[NDG]

Not surprising that it is now forecasted to become a hurricane, the GFS has been persistent that shear is dropping over it as it start tracking through the FL straights and into the SE GOM.

[Cat5James]

With the potential jump in intensity, does it seem possible that any inland Broward areas (specifically the Coral Springs area) will see high wind gusts or possible Hurricane force gusts or warnings, or will this be predominantly to the south in Miami Dade County?

We probably won’t see a gust over 60 in north Broward

[aspen]

The 10am discussion says that the only negative parts of Eta’s environment are wind shear (which is set to decrease to <10 kt by tomorrow) and the potential for dry air entrainment. If dry air doesn’t get into the core, the NHC says it could be a hurricane prior to reaching the Keys. This is why the GFS and HWRF are so aggressive; they have a nice moisture pocket forming around the center rather quickly, shielding Eta from dry air and allowing it to become a Cat 2/3 by the time it reaches the warm waters of the loop current.

[CourierPR]

With the potential jump in intensity, does it seem possible that any inland Broward areas (specifically the Coral Springs area) will see high wind gusts or possible Hurricane force gusts or warnings, or will this be predominantly to the south in Miami Dade County?

We probably won’t see a gust over 60 in north Broward

The met. on WPLG TV in Miami said that gusts of hurricane force could occur as far north as Broward County.

[SFLcane]

Winds still dead calm across the peninsula except in bands

[SFLcane]

With the potential jump in intensity, does it seem possible that any inland Broward areas (specifically the Coral Springs area) will see high wind gusts or possible Hurricane force gusts or warnings, or will this be predominantly to the south in Miami Dade County?

We probably won’t see a gust over 60 in north Broward

The met. on WPLG TV in Miami said that gusts of hurricane force could occur as far north as Broward County.

Which met?