ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

[chaser1]

NHC finally moved their 120hr point from 27.5N/84W to near landfall north of Tampa. HIGH degree of uncertainty in Eta's intensity then. I think they are erring on the high side.

Historically not all that unusual to have a landfall between Tampa and the Big Bend area for a November storm. The key will be how long it has to either intensify or hopefully get shredded some more.

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

I would also include Kate of '85 as one other Florida west coast landfall (Big Bend region but I'd still qualify as W. coast verses East coast)

[caneseddy]

https://i.postimg.cc/63nrGFRb/7047-F2-F1-A01-D-491-D-9153-2-FA24-DCCD202.jpg

Are those actually TS/almost hurricane gusts it’s depicting on Tuesday for SE Florida?

[johngaltfla]

TD#14 in 1987 came to mind too. It made a mess up by Spring Hill with something north of 10" of rain falling, if I remember my history correctly.

[toad strangler]

Historically not all that unusual to have a landfall between Tampa and the Big Bend area for a November storm. The key will be how long it has to either intensify or hopefully get shredded some more.

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

I would also include Kate of '85 as one other Florida west coast landfall (Big Bend region but I'd still qualify as W. coast verses East coast)

Kate is just one of TWO hurricanes since 1851 to make landfall in the USA in November. The other was the Yankee hurricane of 1935 but that one came from the Atlantic and struck the FL East coast. So he HAS to be referring to Kate. She's the only other one but did not hit near Ft. Myers. She hit the pan handle. I'm talking hurricane strength at LANDFALL of course.

[xironman]

That meso coming off of Andros looks nasty, but it will probably die down before getting to the mainland.

[Nuno]

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

I think that statistic will remain. I don’t think it will be a hurricane dry air could kill it before it hits shore i hope anyways.

That's what I'm hoping for. I'm sick of this tropical season and wonder now what winter surprises are in store for us.

Lol with La Niña it won't be an eventful winter: hot, dry , boring. Im enjoying the meteorological anomaly still that is the 2020 ATL season

[fox13weather]

Historically not all that unusual to have a landfall between Tampa and the Big Bend area for a November storm. The key will be how long it has to either intensify or hopefully get shredded some more.

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

I would also include Kate of '85 as one other Florida west coast landfall (Big Bend region but I'd still qualify as W. coast verses East coast)

Kate made landfall near Mexico Beach. That's in the western panhandle, not the Big Bend......the west coast of Florida is on the peninsula

[Sanibel]

Classic hurricane clouds overhead here...Going for a bike ride before it rains...Humid and warm...

[eastcoastFL]

[quote="CW0262"]Hello everyone...CW0262 here in Port st. Lucie FL Winds 25 with gusts to 41.4 mph rain today 0.47 in. [/


Went to Walgreens here in palm city a little while ago and a unexpected gust shoved me back when I got out of the car. Rain has been steady past few hours

[toad strangler]

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

I would also include Kate of '85 as one other Florida west coast landfall (Big Bend region but I'd still qualify as W. coast verses East coast)

Kate made landfall near Mexico Beach. That's in the western panhandle, not the Big Bend......the west coast of Florida is on the peninsula

Yep. Now, if you want to talk Depressions or TS's FLorida is that absolute King of landfalls in November since 1851. I don't have the time to look up the numbers but all but one D or TS that made landfall in the USA in November was in the state of FL. The only one the didn't? Ha you guessed it, Louisiana.

[CW0262]

Hello everyone...CW0262 here in Port st. Lucie FL Winds 25 with gusts to 41.4 mph rain today 0.47 in. [/


Went to Walgreens here in palm city a little while ago and a unexpected gust shoved me back when I got out of the car. Rain has been steady past few hours

I Bet!!!

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/63nrGFRb/7047-F2-F1-A01-D-491-D-9153-2-FA24-DCCD202.jpg

Are those actually TS/almost hurricane gusts it’s depicting on Tuesday for SE Florida?

Majorly overdone to much hype this bands have nothing near the ground.

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/63nrGFRb/7047-F2-F1-A01-D-491-D-9153-2-FA24-DCCD202.jpg

Are those actually TS/almost hurricane gusts it’s depicting on Tuesday for SE Florida?

Majorly overdone to much hype this bands have nothing near the ground.

I'm seeing close to 50 in these bands in gusts in Port St. Lucie West. Just enough to knock over some potted plants in the yard.

[eastcoastFL]

[psyclone]

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

I would also include Kate of '85 as one other Florida west coast landfall (Big Bend region but I'd still qualify as W. coast verses East coast)

Kate made landfall near Mexico Beach. That's in the western panhandle, not the Big Bend......the west coast of Florida is on the peninsula

Even if this system manages to attain hurricane intensity in the Gulf (which is already a high bar to jump), it's almost certain to degrade as it is swept northeastward. Delta was Florida's late season menace. Thankfully for us (not our Louisiana friends) Delta's GPS had a catastrophic malfunction and it got lost. The late season canon was pointed the wrong way. Now it's sufficiently late that the late season canon is firing rubber bullets..

[Hurricane Alexis]

I was just outside in my front yard and it's already getting a wild. Easily gusting over 50 mph

[eastcoastFL]

Are those actually TS/almost hurricane gusts it’s depicting on Tuesday for SE Florida?

Majorly overdone to much hype this bands have nothing near the ground.

I'm seeing close to 50 in these bands in gusts in Port St. Lucie West. Just enough to knock over some potted plants in the yard.

Same in palm city especially right now it’s ripping out side

[aspen]

Eta is looking just like the earlier HWRF runs predicted it would at this time tonight.

[eastcoastFL]

Eta is looking just like the earlier HWRF runs predicted it would at this time tonight.

Hwrf has been simply amazing with predicting storm structures. I think the upgrades and integrated radar made a huge difference