ATL: ETA - Models

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1325436785573425154




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1325438125074735105

[aspen]

HWRF once again has a strong hurricane, this time peaking as a Cat3 around 955 mb/105 kt.

[kevin]

12z HWRF . At least it weakens a bit in the 96 - 105 hour range to 965 mbar, but considering how good HWRF has been this season in terms of intensity this is not the run I was hoping to see. It was one of the few models that anticipated Eta's rapid intensification into a cat 4. Has there ever been a hurricane that went from major -> tropical depression -> major?

[TheStormExpert]

Assuming Eta turns back NNE or NE it could be problematic then, then it is now as it may be more significant in intensity. Anyone from the eastern FL Panhandle to Ft. Myers need to watch as the state may be dealing with Eta for quite awhile.

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...

[Cat5James]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_tracks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...

These models have been horrendous... Euro 00Z showed Eta hugging the SE coast of FL within 24 hours, now its off the West coast... that's over 100 miles difference within 24 hours

[chaser1]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_tracks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...

Question then becomes, will Eta re-establish it's inner core? Big props to HWRF for the most part this year but I'm seriously questioning it's latest intensity forecasts.

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_tracks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...

Question then becomes, will Eta re-establish it's inner core? Big props to HWRF for the most part this year but I'm seriously questioning it's latest intensity forecasts.

Yeah, there is very little convection on the bottom half of the LLC, I think if you are on the bottom half of circulation it’s a breezy cloudy day. Models predicted well all the energy to the N.

[aspen]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_tracks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...

Question then becomes, will Eta re-establish it's inner core? Big props to HWRF for the most part this year but I'm seriously questioning it's latest intensity forecasts.

The HWRF shows this anemic structure for the next 12-18 hours, and it isn’t until Tuesday that it has Eta really get going again. It’s not like it’s showing ERI within 24 hours.

[aspen]

18z HWRF has a sheared/tilted vortex at 48 hours, which is odd. Shear is supposed to be under 10 kt by then, but from the looks of Eta on the HWRF’s simulated IR and moisture filters, it’s expecting 20-30 kt.

[TheStormExpert]

Models seem to be backing off on anything too significant in the Gulf.

[PandaCitrus]

18Z GFS just kinds of lingers in the gulf before dissipating. No FL landfall.

[aspen]

The “Happy Hour” runs are anything but happy today. HWRF has a minor hurricane at most, GFS still has a max of a strong TS.

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour King says a more moderate version (thankfully) of Kate the 2nd still possible:



It is then within a very moist environment of dewpoints greater than 76 F:

[underthwx]

HWRF once again has a strong hurricane, this time peaking as a Cat3 around 955 mb/105 kt.

Good Lord....

[MetroMike]

HWRF once again has a strong hurricane, this time peaking as a Cat3 around 955 mb/105 kt.

Good Lord....

I’m not seeing that on the 18z please explain.

[aspen]

HWRF once again has a strong hurricane, this time peaking as a Cat3 around 955 mb/105 kt.

Good Lord....

I’m not seeing that on the 18z please explain.

That was the 12z run. The 18z has a Cat 1 at the most.

[Jr0d]

Whoops....wrong forum.

The NAM and HRRR just updated.

[Blown Away]

That big red blob moving through Palm Beach was accurately shown in the modeling last night. Amazing computers can predict that we’ll in advance.

[chris_fit]

You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.