Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 98L)

[Hurricanehink]

If Iota is another epic I storm, I swear...

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: a new TD in Caribbean late week moving W and then SW

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.9N 72.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.11.2020 120 15.9N 72.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 14.11.2020 132 15.9N 74.3W 1007 28
1200UTC 14.11.2020 144 14.8N 75.5W 1007 26

[LarryWx]

This what the 0Z CMC has for Central America and SE Mexico early next week:

[ElectricStorm]

This what the 0Z CMC has for Central America and SE Mexico early next week:

https://i.imgur.com/NujHCuY.png

On top of the disaster from Eta... Not liking the trends for "future Theta/Iota"

[Astromanía]

Expect many deaths from this potential system unfortunately, maybe the deadliest system of the season, CA and SE Mexico are not a place you want those big rainfall acumulations

[ElectricStorm]

Bad news on the 0z GFS... Luckily it's long-range...

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: a new TD in Caribbean late week moving W and then SW

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.9N 72.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.11.2020 120 15.9N 72.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 14.11.2020 132 15.9N 74.3W 1007 28
1200UTC 14.11.2020 144 14.8N 75.5W 1007 26

0Z UKMET is similar to the 12Z


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.5N 74.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2020 120 14.5N 74.1W 1007 31
1200UTC 14.11.2020 132 13.5N 74.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 15.11.2020 144 12.9N 75.6W 1005

[Extratropical94]

0/50

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea,
where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[kevin]

Pretty strong model support atm with GFS, GFS-para, CMC and ICON. Euro still doesn't develop it, but does show an area of disturbance entering the WCar. Here are the 00z runs for those 4 models at their peak intensity.

GFS:


GFS-Para:


CMC:


ICON:

[GCANE]

Good potential with this one.

Likely will spin up Thursday being on the SW side of a TUTT.

Could move into the GoM under a ARWB.

Dry air would be the inhibiting factor.

A lot to watch out for the Florida folks.

[SFLcane]

06z gfs drops significant development.

[aspen]

06z gfs drops significant development.

It’s been flipping between two scenarios: either the wave gets tangled up with stuff north of the islands, or it remains separate without interference. 06z went to the former scenario but the 12z or 18z could easily go back to the latter.

[Iceresistance]

Where is the wave right now?

EDIT: Is it the one just outside of the Leeward Islands?

[Extratropical94]

Where is the wave right now?

EDIT: Is it the one just outside of the Leeward Islands?

The wave axis is slightly west of the islands, roughly at 63-64W.

[Iceresistance]

Where is the wave right now?

EDIT: Is it the one just outside of the Leeward Islands?

The wave axis is slightly west of the islands, roughly at 63-64W.

West? I thought that the wave was on the convection just east of the islands.

[Extratropical94]

Where is the wave right now?

EDIT: Is it the one just outside of the Leeward Islands?

The wave axis is slightly west of the islands, roughly at 63-64W.

West? I thought that the wave was on the convection just east of the islands.

Yeah, the axis itself is west of the islands. The convection also belongs to the same wave, but it is primarily caused by the increased surface convergence to the east of the wave, where the easterly flow converges towards the wave axis. That is why tropical waves often appear to be further east than they actually are.

[Iceresistance]

The wave axis is slightly west of the islands, roughly at 63-64W.

West? I thought that the wave was on the convection just east of the islands.

Yeah, the axis itself is west of the islands. The convection also belongs to the same wave, but it is primarily caused by the increased surface convergence to the east of the wave, where the easterly flow converges towards the wave axis. That is why tropical waves often appear to be further east than they actually are.

I see now, it looks like the wave itself (And a circulation feature) is SE of Puerto Rico with a scattered convection with the convection load on top of the Leeward Islands

[AutoPenalti]

ICON on board as early as this saturday.

[aspen]

12z GFS once again shows entanglement. There’s this thousand mile long string of vorticity between the Caribbean wave and a second wave that keeps the former a broad low/spin. The latter runs into the Greater Antilles in about a week and leaves the formed in the south Caribbean.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS with a broad low at 200 hours.