ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3721 Postby sponger » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:36 am

Definitely still gaining latitude but this was predicted, even though it remains on the North end of the forecast track.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3722 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:55 am

...ETA IS VERY NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 81.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...80 KM NE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3723 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:15 am

This is a naked TS...Needs to re-convect if it is going to do anything...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3724 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:54 am

Weather Dude wrote:That is a nasty blowup of convection N of the center. Trying to wrap it around. Looks like it's going for H status sooner rather than later, depending on land interaction...
https://i.imgur.com/lo8tuSd.gif

Other than radar data, is there any evidence that this was even close to 55 knots at landfall in the Keys? The Carysfort Reef Light was/is elevated, not at 10 m.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3725 Postby jconsor » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:25 am

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3726 Postby GCANE » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:51 am

A little early to say for sure, but GFS showing Eta getting under the center of a ARWB in the mid GOM on Saturday.
Could develop into something stronger than currently anticipated.
Stay tuned.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3727 Postby flamingosun » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:13 am

News from the space coast
Brevard county public schools will be closed today.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3728 Postby lando » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:22 am

it looked like the 0z runs of the main models have the storm continuing west and not coming back to florida, with exception of the euro which comes back as a TD
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3729 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:48 am

Looks like Eta's LLC is separated from the MLC. The LLC is still south of 25N. Center is on the SE edge of the convection.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3730 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:50 am

lando wrote:it looked like the 0z runs of the main models have the storm continuing west and not coming back to florida, with exception of the euro which comes back as a TD


Very tricky forecast track coming up. It will all depend on Eta's strength where it ends up, if it becomes a strong system a track NNE towards FL is a good bet but if it stays weaker or gets weaker as it tracks to the NE surface steering winds will carry it westward before getting to FL.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3731 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:50 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:That is a nasty blowup of convection N of the center. Trying to wrap it around. Looks like it's going for H status sooner rather than later, depending on land interaction...
https://i.imgur.com/lo8tuSd.gif

Other than radar data, is there any evidence that this was even close to 55 knots at landfall in the Keys? The Carysfort Reef Light was/is elevated, not at 10 m.


The problem with using radar data is that it measures winds aloft, and those winds aloft are not easily translated down to the surface lacking heavy squalls around the center.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3732 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:57 am

Saved 8hr radar loop, the SW heading has begun. It does look like the MLC & LLC have separated as wxman57 mentioned.
Incredible training effect over SE FL :eek:

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3733 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:08 am

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3734 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:51 am

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3735 Postby hipshot » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:00 am


Wow, that has to be a rear engine car and it does look like a Lamborgini.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3736 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:02 am

Looks like there’s a reasonable chance of Eta finding its way to Louisiana after all.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3737 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:11 am

Plane found winds barely TS NE of the center, now moving away from FL. No TS winds SE-SW. 60 mph NW in the squalls. It's really moving SW now. Pressure rising. My money remains on a LA landfall, but if it does reach LA you may just barely be able to detect the remnant swirl of low clouds. Dry air is already surrounding Eta.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3738 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:24 am

hipshot wrote:

Wow, that has to be a rear engine car and it does look like a Lamborgini.

Looks like Knight rider on the move... But seriously , that's an expensive car to risk damage to...not sure what type car that is, but wherever that location is, sure did receive alot of precipitation...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3740 Postby Michele B » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:06 am

NDG wrote:Saved 8hr radar loop, the SW heading has begun. It does look like the MLC & LLC have separated as wxman57 mentioned.
Incredible training effect over SE FL :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/qQzB7lq.gif


Watching this very long loop - what? 6-8 hours?

What I see is that the "friction" effect....where interaction with the storm seems to have been "pulling" the storm toward the land, or at least parallel to it. It finally gets PULLED away, by the steering currents, I guess.

I am NO expert, by any means, but I've heard of that "friction" effect, and this loop seems to illustrate it to me.

I'm not sure what the "friction effect" is, but this looks like the storm wanting to follow the coastline for a ways. Educate me if I'm wrong.
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