ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Definitely still gaining latitude but this was predicted, even though it remains on the North end of the forecast track.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
...ETA IS VERY NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 81.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...80 KM NE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 81.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...80 KM NE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This is a naked TS...Needs to re-convect if it is going to do anything...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Weather Dude wrote:That is a nasty blowup of convection N of the center. Trying to wrap it around. Looks like it's going for H status sooner rather than later, depending on land interaction...
https://i.imgur.com/lo8tuSd.gif
Other than radar data, is there any evidence that this was even close to 55 knots at landfall in the Keys? The Carysfort Reef Light was/is elevated, not at 10 m.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
A little early to say for sure, but GFS showing Eta getting under the center of a ARWB in the mid GOM on Saturday.
Could develop into something stronger than currently anticipated.
Stay tuned.

Could develop into something stronger than currently anticipated.
Stay tuned.

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- flamingosun
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
News from the space coast
Brevard county public schools will be closed today.
Brevard county public schools will be closed today.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
it looked like the 0z runs of the main models have the storm continuing west and not coming back to florida, with exception of the euro which comes back as a TD
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like Eta's LLC is separated from the MLC. The LLC is still south of 25N. Center is on the SE edge of the convection.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
lando wrote:it looked like the 0z runs of the main models have the storm continuing west and not coming back to florida, with exception of the euro which comes back as a TD
Very tricky forecast track coming up. It will all depend on Eta's strength where it ends up, if it becomes a strong system a track NNE towards FL is a good bet but if it stays weaker or gets weaker as it tracks to the NE surface steering winds will carry it westward before getting to FL.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Shell Mound wrote:Weather Dude wrote:That is a nasty blowup of convection N of the center. Trying to wrap it around. Looks like it's going for H status sooner rather than later, depending on land interaction...
https://i.imgur.com/lo8tuSd.gif
Other than radar data, is there any evidence that this was even close to 55 knots at landfall in the Keys? The Carysfort Reef Light was/is elevated, not at 10 m.
The problem with using radar data is that it measures winds aloft, and those winds aloft are not easily translated down to the surface lacking heavy squalls around the center.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Saved 8hr radar loop, the SW heading has begun. It does look like the MLC & LLC have separated as wxman57 mentioned.
Incredible training effect over SE FL

Incredible training effect over SE FL


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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Morning visible loop
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wow, that has to be a rear engine car and it does look like a Lamborgini.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like there’s a reasonable chance of Eta finding its way to Louisiana after all.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Plane found winds barely TS NE of the center, now moving away from FL. No TS winds SE-SW. 60 mph NW in the squalls. It's really moving SW now. Pressure rising. My money remains on a LA landfall, but if it does reach LA you may just barely be able to detect the remnant swirl of low clouds. Dry air is already surrounding Eta.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
hipshot wrote:
Wow, that has to be a rear engine car and it does look like a Lamborgini.
Looks like Knight rider on the move... But seriously , that's an expensive car to risk damage to...not sure what type car that is, but wherever that location is, sure did receive alot of precipitation...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Major flooding in the Fort Lauderdale-Miami urban corridor:
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1325788843040264198
https://twitter.com/BrookeShaferTV/status/1325775051057197057
https://twitter.com/jpetramala/status/1325778768078770180
https://twitter.com/FrancesWangTV/status/1325735192233988096
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1325788843040264198
https://twitter.com/BrookeShaferTV/status/1325775051057197057
https://twitter.com/jpetramala/status/1325778768078770180
https://twitter.com/FrancesWangTV/status/1325735192233988096
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:Saved 8hr radar loop, the SW heading has begun. It does look like the MLC & LLC have separated as wxman57 mentioned.
Incredible training effect over SE FL![]()
https://i.imgur.com/qQzB7lq.gif
Watching this very long loop - what? 6-8 hours?
What I see is that the "friction" effect....where interaction with the storm seems to have been "pulling" the storm toward the land, or at least parallel to it. It finally gets PULLED away, by the steering currents, I guess.
I am NO expert, by any means, but I've heard of that "friction" effect, and this loop seems to illustrate it to me.
I'm not sure what the "friction effect" is, but this looks like the storm wanting to follow the coastline for a ways. Educate me if I'm wrong.
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