ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3741 Postby sponger » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:13 am

GCANE wrote:A little early to say for sure, but GFS showing Eta getting under the center of a ARWB in the mid GOM on Saturday.
Could develop into something stronger than currently anticipated.
Stay tuned.

https://i.imgur.com/nhOL2ss.png


Alright I am at a loss on ARWB. Even google was no help.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3742 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:14 am

Looks like Eta continues to weaken. Plane finding winds only 40-45 kts NW quadrant now.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3743 Postby sponger » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:21 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks like Eta continues to weaken. Plane finding winds only 40-45 kts NW quadrant now.


I can't help but root for her.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3744 Postby StPeteMike » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:30 am

This is fine with me.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3745 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:34 am

Looks like land took a toll on Eta. Looks awful right now. It's certainly got work to to get to hurricane status now but I still think it will, if only briefly
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3746 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:37 am

First real round of fast-moving squalls coming through the Tampa Bay area now.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3747 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:44 am

wxman57 wrote:Plane found winds barely TS NE of the center, now moving away from FL. No TS winds SE-SW. 60 mph NW in the squalls. It's really moving SW now. Pressure rising. My money remains on a LA landfall, but if it does reach LA you may just barely be able to detect the remnant swirl of low clouds. Dry air is already surrounding Eta.


What kind of 2020 voodoo is this!? Louisiana? For real? What part of Louisiana? Good thing it would be a dry mess and not really matter but still, if it maintains its classification that would be yet another named landfall. Geez.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3748 Postby GCANE » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:56 am

sponger wrote:
GCANE wrote:A little early to say for sure, but GFS showing Eta getting under the center of a ARWB in the mid GOM on Saturday.
Could develop into something stronger than currently anticipated.
Stay tuned.

https://i.imgur.com/nhOL2ss.png


Alright I am at a loss on ARWB. Even google was no help.


Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Break

An area of upper-level anti-cyclonic flow situated SE of the axis of most Rossby Waves.
The general public typical knows Rossby Waves as the Jet Stream.
Tropical cyclones usually develop or strengthen when under an ARWB.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3749 Postby zeehag » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:57 am

a friend was in eta in his catamaran with his cat..sunny is a cat, btw....this is his report...no no pix....sorry. location is key largo, in mangroves in a marina...
Catptain Sunny is at The End Of The World.
9h ·
Ok folks. Hurricane status update; We are going to survive, but damages are devastating, huge surge, my trailer and truck are under water. Probably a loss of both and everything in them, which is alot. Storm surge is about 5 feet, almost as bad as Irma. Winds are about 75 mph with gusts maybe to 90, which isn't completely awful since we tied off well, but its quite noisy and bumpy. The meter box for my whole dock went under water and burned up, probably no electricity for a few weeks at least, but it was three months without power after Irma tho. We have generators to break out after storm tho. Im running on inverter for a few minutes to power phone signal booster to post this update. Then im shutting down fur the night to save power. My freezer was up on a bench in tikihut but it wasn't high enough, so that is toast probably. There's hundreds of dollars of food in there we will have to distribute in couple of days. My skiff floated off trailer but is tied to tikihut so it won't go too far. Other boats on trailers around marina are floating around, so is the dumpster. Looks like we lost a house boat off another dock. There will be several more boats lost, my late afternoon walk revealed half the boats in here did not prepare at all. My storage trailer was up on blocks, but it wasn't enough, i actually went snorkelling with a bottle jack and managed to go side to side and get it up in two more cinder blocks and the water was coming as fast as i could jack, even in an outgoing tide. I added two more blocks but then the jack blew out before i could go for four. Oil all over me, sewage all over me, freezing my ass off, risky business in 50 mph winds, got it up three feet off ground, it wasn't enough. Damn there goes a bunch of tools, clothes, books, and a $8000 RO system probably. My new work van was up on blocks on higher ground by marina office, wasn't enough, it is probably toast also, last i looked it was up to the doors. Hopefully trailer doesn't blow right off the blocks. There are horrible metal sounding groaning noises, like docks tearing loose, and i can hear the distinct sound of crunching boats in the distance over the wind. Alarms going off.
ALL the storm models were wrong! It didn't turn west. It wasn't just a tropical storm with 45 mph winds either, about twice as bad as they predicted. It hit middle Keys, and Key Largo where i am is getting the worst of it on north side of eyewall. Right now in fact. So much for turning West and missing me. That forecasting put a lot of folks at ease and they didn't prepare at all. Daylight will reveal quite a mess I think.
But on the bright side, we are not going to die, and the boats on our dock at least were well prepared, we all got together and spun our spider web of ropes on Saturday and are holding fast, its weird looking down at tops of pilings and the docks have disappeared, as has the whole of the island, completely under water, we are floating in a spider web in a mangrove forest. Sunny had a cold dinner and is actually sleeping through all this noise and bouncing around. He has been through a dozen hurricanes and is purrfectly confident in my preparation and used to the chaos. I however will not be sleeping so well tonight, and tomorrow is going to be a very long and disheartening day. Still, after seeing videos from friends in Honduras, we are blessed compared to them, still have my home..
Last edited by zeehag on Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3750 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:57 am

I can't help but get an uneasy feeling of the latest GFS and UKMET solutions of Eta not getting picked up and carried away and instead wondering out in the Gulf for days.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3751 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:11 am

You know when you have way too much for Thanksgiving and you feel really terrible afterwards? That’s Eta today, except instead of turkey, it’s been eating tons of dry air.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3752 Postby Nimbus » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:13 am

Key West Buoy observations.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EST

Recon still showing surface pressure down to 997 mb's but the profile is a much shallower V. Would need a day or more over warm SST's without shear to spin back up.
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ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3753 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:24 am

The Weather Channel was warning about surge in the Keys last night...Looks like they weren't kidding...The 992 pressure delivered surge...

The storm is retaining its structure but it has been drained of convection and energy by the dry air...

It was nothing here...Too far south...The wind and rain never showed up...

The November Gulf is probably too cool to regenerate and overcome the dry air snuffing of the convection...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3754 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:32 am

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like land took a toll on Eta. Looks awful right now. It's certainly got work to to get to hurricane status now but I still think it will, if only briefly


It wasn't the land, it was dry air entrainment combined with a little shear.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3755 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:37 am

Sanibel wrote:The Weather Channel was warning about surge in the Keys last night...Looks like they weren't kidding...The 992 pressure delivered surge...

The storm is retaining its structure but it has been drained of convection and energy by the dry air...

It was nothing here...Too far south...The wind and rain never showed up...

The November Gulf is probably too cool to regenerate and overcome the dry air snuffing of the convection...


Note that the central pressure doesn't create a significant surge, just a tiny amount. A pressure of 992 mb may only lead to an increase of a an inch or two. The wind field is what creates the storm surge.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3756 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:39 am

Looks like convection is re-firing around the center now.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3757 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:43 am

Suddenly getting it's act together. Let's see how long good conditions last.
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso2_60.html
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3758 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:50 am

Eta is like: "NO! I will never succumb to the dryness!"
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3759 Postby GCANE » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:51 am

ULL that has been pushing down dry air from the upper troposphere is slowing diminishing.
Result is convection is firing closer to the CoC.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3760 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:59 am

I'm a little confused as to why I keep getting EAS alerts on my phone about a flash flood warning when skys are clearing up.
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