ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3761 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:07 am

AutoPenalti wrote:I'm a little confused as to why I keep getting EAS alerts on my phone about a flash flood warning when skys are clearing up.

Elsewhere in your county?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3762 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:29 am

AutoPenalti wrote:I'm a little confused as to why I keep getting EAS alerts on my phone about a flash flood warning when skys are clearing up.


Could be creeks and some rivers still yet to rise
downstream.
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3763 Postby toad strangler » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:37 am

Dean4Storms wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:I'm a little confused as to why I keep getting EAS alerts on my phone about a flash flood warning when skys are clearing up.


Could be creeks and some rivers still yet to rise
downstream.


Creeks and rivers wouldn't be flash floods. At least the way I understand it.
0 likes   

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3764 Postby sponger » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:41 am

Blowing real good here in NE Florida. Gusts to 30 or more.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 24 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 26 kts
Last edited by sponger on Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3765 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:42 am

ETA has subtropical/hybrid, gradient features...
1 likes   

User avatar
ObsessedMiami
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: West Kendall, Fl

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3766 Postby ObsessedMiami » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:54 am

AutoPenalti wrote:I'm a little confused as to why I keep getting EAS alerts on my phone about a flash flood warning when skys are clearing up.

I noticed that too in Miami. I guess it if any more rain materializes, as is forecast, it would cause the flash flooding. It right now radar is empty
0 likes   

Mouton
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 221
Age: 79
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:13 am
Location: Amelia Island Florida

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3767 Postby Mouton » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:41 pm

sponger wrote:Blowing real good here in NE Florida. Gusts to 30 or more.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 24 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 26 kts


Pretty calm on Amelia island at 12:40. Overcast.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3768 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:22 pm

Afternoon sun I was hoping for didn't quite pan out yesterday. Eta caused more headache than I hoped. Lost power late yesterday afternoon around 5:30 and didn't get it back until around 6 this morning also a power line down as well. Slept with the sounds of generators humming around the neighborhood last night with around 70% humidity indoors, reminded me of the nights of no power with Irma. :eek: The rain and wind were impressive, it was blackout conditions for a while here and training did setup as well. Anybody know what the wind gusts were along coast SE Palm Beach county / NE Broward? I estimated 60mph+ gusts though Pompano Beach Airpark only saw 45mph gusts max I noticed. Could have been far worse but definitely enough to create some headaches. Glad the hurricane season is ending.
5 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3769 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:28 pm

I see a big change coming in future NHC tracks. No more landfall in north Florida. Eta stalls west of Tampa Thursday and dissipates as it drifts westward in low-level flow.
5 likes   

jhpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 570
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:09 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3770 Postby jhpigott » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:35 pm

gatorcane wrote:Afternoon sun I was hoping for didn't quite pan out yesterday. Eta caused more headache than I hoped. Lost power late yesterday afternoon around 5:30 and didn't get it back until around 6 this morning also a power line down as well. Slept with the sounds of generators humming around the neighborhood last night with around 70% humidity indoors, reminded me of the nights of no power with Irma. :eek: The rain and wind were impressive, it was blackout conditions for a while here and training did setup as well. Anybody know what the wind gusts were along coast SE Palm Beach county / NE Broward? I estimated 60mph+ gusts though Pompano Beach Airpark only saw 45mph gusts max I noticed. Could have been far worse but definitely enough to create some headaches. Glad the hurricane season is ending.


No official report, but I went down to the Juno Beach pier yesterday afternoon around 5:0pm0 and it sure felt like 40-50mph. Looks like the max gust at PBI was 47mph
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3771 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:50 pm

Eta is over some nice warm water with its southern inflow still over those hot Caribbean SST's so anything is possible...
1 likes   

Sailingtime
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:02 pm

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3772 Postby Sailingtime » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:05 pm

Sanibel wrote:Eta is over some nice warm water with its southern inflow still over those hot Caribbean SST's so anything is possible...

Lots of rain in central part of Florida today but I'm feeling really good that ETA will diminish and dissipate in the Gulf in the next few days.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11497
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3773 Postby GCANE » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:12 pm

Strong, cold-topped tower firing near the CoC.
Starting to pickup some steam.
2 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1179
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3774 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:40 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3775 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:07 pm

Even almost all EC ensemble members stall it Thursday well west of FL and dissipate it. NHC is going to have to make a big track change, as have I.
1 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3776 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:09 pm

Is Eta rebuilding the inner core again?


Image


EDIT: I just noticed that Eta has turned hard South
7 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3777 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:45 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Is Eta rebuilding the inner core again?


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL292020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL292020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif


EDIT: I just noticed that Eta has turned hard South

You never know what surprises that any given system may have in store, and ETA is just one example...I hope it's days are numbered, enough already!... But if ETA decides otherwise, I won't be surprised at all...we are all going to wind up with carpal tunnel syndrome with all of the posting on ETA....
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5467
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3778 Postby chaser1 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:Even almost all EC ensemble members stall it Thursday well west of FL and dissipate it. NHC is going to have to make a big track change, as have I.


Interesting.... so a secondary steering COL following the next short wave pulling up & out even faster then originally progged? Seems like the Westerlies are quite progressive but with our La Nina split flow, one wouldn't hardly notice living in Florida right now. So nada for cool air for us, instead Eta will simply die a slow death as a result of dryer air spilling in from the west & north?
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3779 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:53 pm

NHC has started to indicate a big track shift. They're not doing it all at once as I did.
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3780 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:55 pm

I love how there's literally a crease where the metro areas reside in.

Image
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests