Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 98L)

[aspen]

GFS has this really complex, broad entanglement between this wave and multiple other lows.

CMC and ICON are very straightforward: AEW develops in Caribbean, goes straight into Central America as a hurricane.

[TallyTracker]

If this and the non-tropical low in the NE Atlantic develop within 5 days, we could have three active cyclones in the Atlantic basin at the same time in November...has that ever happened?!?

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea,
where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week
or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[underthwx]

What are some of the other possible scenarios for this low, other than moving towards CA?...one thought I had, being we are in November, is the low, whatever form it takes, may get snared by a frontal system, and move NE out to the Atlantic, or possibly track up the Eastern seaboard?

[kevin]

What are some of the other possible scenarios for this low, other than moving towards CA?...one thought I had, being we are in November, is the low, whatever form it takes, may get snared by a frontal system, and move NE out to the Atlantic, or possibly track up the Eastern seaboard?

Not sure how realistic it is, but 00z GFS had a Florida landfall.

[kevin]

If this and the non-tropical low in the NE Atlantic develop within 5 days, we could have three active cyclones in the Atlantic basin at the same time in November...has that ever happened?!?

Nope. 1931 and 2005 are the only 2 seasons with 3 storms in November and in neither of those seasons did all three of those storms exist at the same time.

[underthwx]

What are some of the other possible scenarios for this low, other than moving towards CA?...one thought I had, being we are in November, is the low, whatever form it takes, may get snared by a frontal system, and move NE out to the Atlantic, or possibly track up the Eastern seaboard?

Not sure how realistic it is, but 00z GFS had a Florida landfall.

https://imgur.com/sAehXKq

I didn't want to mention Florida in my thoughts on the low moving NE, because yall are still dealing with ETA, but it is one of the questions I am seeking answers to...realizing the low hasn't even formed... yet....I wonder will Florida be facing another system...thanks for your reply Kevin...

[Patrick99]

What are some of the other possible scenarios for this low, other than moving towards CA?...one thought I had, being we are in November, is the low, whatever form it takes, may get snared by a frontal system, and move NE out to the Atlantic, or possibly track up the Eastern seaboard?

Not sure how realistic it is, but 00z GFS had a Florida landfall.

That run actually looks like a pretty straightforward setup to me. Storm forms, rounds a high. At any rate, I'm not sure we're done yet. This year is going to be a reminder that hurricane season goes until Nov 30th.

[CrazyC83]

Combined with the weather in the east, it feels like September 9, not November 9. And another epic "I" storm to boot...

[CrazyC83]

If this and the non-tropical low in the NE Atlantic develop within 5 days, we could have three active cyclones in the Atlantic basin at the same time in November...has that ever happened?!?

Don't think so. I know the record for most storms to have formed in November is three (most recently 2005).

[chaser1]

Combined with the weather in the east, it feels like September 9, not November 9. And another epic "I" storm to boot...

Alright, I'm gonna say it. I'm done with the 2020 Hurricane season - the season that keeps on giving LOL. I don't give one iota where Theta will soon form. Who jacked my November anyway? I want it back. Right now, I'd gladly trade off three more named storms for a couple mediocre cool fronts. No special demands like "squall lines" or hail producing pre-frontal discreet cells. Nope.... just a couple weeks of non-tropical cooler dew points is all I ask. And if everyone else really wants La Nina around, I'll agree to her visiting next Spring & Summer.

[SouthFLTropics]

Combined with the weather in the east, it feels like September 9, not November 9. And another epic "I" storm to boot...

Alright, I'm gonna say it. I'm done with the 2020 Hurricane season - the season that keeps on giving LOL. I don't give one iota where Theta will soon form. Who jacked my November anyway? I want it back. Right now, I'd gladly trade off three more named storms for a couple mediocre cool fronts. No special demands like "squall lines" or hail producing pre-frontal discreet cells. Nope.... just a couple weeks of non-tropical cooler dew points is all I ask. And if everyone else really wants La Nina around, I'll agree to her visiting next Spring & Summer.

Hear Hear... I second this motion and move for a vote!!!

[aspen]

Combined with the weather in the east, it feels like September 9, not November 9. And another epic "I" storm to boot...

Alright, I'm gonna say it. I'm done with the 2020 Hurricane season - the season that keeps on giving LOL. I don't give one iota where Theta will soon form.

You’re right, you won’t be giving an iota, because that’s what this wave is gonna do.

Bad pun I’m sorry.

[aspen]

18z GFS still have entanglement and splits the energy across two waves, one in the Caribbean and another north of the GAs.

[kevin]

Hmm, I'm not sure what to think atm regarding the GFS runs. On the one hand GFS also had the correct initial scenario for multiple previous storms this season and then it stopped showing genesis for a few runs only to revert back to genesis at the last minute. But on the other hand just because it happened before doesn't mean that it should happen again and GFS is quite persistent with this solution right now. Does anyone know how realistic the current entanglement & split is that GFS forecasts?

[SFLcane]

Not really expecting much from this.

[cycloneye]

Copy and paste.

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea,
where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over central Caribbean along 66W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
West of the wave axis from 10N-19N between 64W-70W. This
tropical wave is forecast to move westward, where an area of low
pressure could form by Thu. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
slowly westward.

[SouthFLTropics]

COME ON GFS... COVID is already trying to ruin Turkey Day. You don't have to get in on the action!!! Cut this nonsense out!!!

[ElectricStorm]

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to
move westward into more conducive environmental conditions, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend when
the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.