ATL: ETA - Models

[ElectricStorm]

You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.

https://i.imgur.com/HUradE1.png

https://i.imgur.com/UdojIDk.png

https://i.imgur.com/DjicSpj.png

Yeah that pretty much narrows it down

[chaser1]

Just not sure what model to buy into, but seems like NHC's present forecast solution is as good as any. I highly doubt that we'll see Eta make any significant resurrection and will probably make an erratic slow northward motion after a couple days. No way do I see this landfalling near (or north of) Tampa as anything more then a weak T.S. though. HWRF appears to have soiled itself after attempting to bring a 980's mb Eta up toward Tampa during one of yesterday's model runs, and now seems to have come around to a more reasonable decomposition. Famous last words lol.

[Emmett_Brown]

6Z GFS shows decreasing shear and establishes a modest amount of upper level anticyclonic outflow over Eta tomorrow, which allows Eta to intensify. GFS is very inconsistent about this however, one run it deepens it, next run, Eta spins down and dries out.

[chaser1]

6Z GFS shows decreasing shear and establishes a modest amount of upper level anticyclonic outflow over Eta tomorrow, which allows Eta to intensify. GFS is very inconsistent about this however, one run it deepens it, next run, Eta spins down and dries out.

You're right; gfs has been quite inconsistent here. Meanwhile, NHC has now officially dropped the notion of Eta becoming a hurricane again (per latest official forecast)

[Wampadawg]

You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.

https://i.imgur.com/HUradE1.png

https://i.imgur.com/UdojIDk.png

https://i.imgur.com/DjicSpj.png

Texas lol

[chris_fit]

You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.

https://i.imgur.com/HUradE1.png

https://i.imgur.com/UdojIDk.png

https://i.imgur.com/DjicSpj.png

Texas lol

Now add Mexico to the list.

[Wampadawg]

You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.

https://i.imgur.com/HUradE1.png

https://i.imgur.com/UdojIDk.png

ETA wants to hang around for Turkey dinner

https://i.imgur.com/DjicSpj.png

Texas lol

Now add Mexico to the list.

https://i.imgur.com/1WGT3Zz.png

[N2FSU]

12z Euro +96hr


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[N2FSU]

+120hr- Louisiana


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[chaser1]

6Z GFS shows decreasing shear and establishes a modest amount of upper level anticyclonic outflow over Eta tomorrow, which allows Eta to intensify. GFS is very inconsistent about this however, one run it deepens it, next run, Eta spins down and dries out.

And naturally, we're NOW seeing some cold tops popping around the storms core. This storm just needs to go and off itself lol.

[AxaltaRacing24]

+120hr- Louisiana https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201109/1c52c40383829d99f2138812f38ed845.jpg


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every other 2020 storm finds a way to get there eventually it feels like.

[Cat5James]

18Z HMON brings Eta back to a CAT 3 by Thursday

[aspen]

18Z HMON brings Eta back to a CAT 3 by Thursday

Looks like we’re not done with the sub-970 runs yet...I’m doubtful Eta gets that strong again, at least for now.

[FixySLN]

Can we not. We're seriously still picking up from last week...We still have peeps without power.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is full on trying to give Tampa Bay a scare!!! Comes with a 115mph major and then dies it out just before it hits.

[StPeteMike]

I’ll see how it survives the next 12 hours...

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I gotta go with the HWRF solution at this point. That HMON Cat 2/3 seems over the top... At least I hope it's over the top, you never know in 2020...

[al78]

HMON is full on trying to give Tampa Bay a scare!!! Comes with a 115mph major and then dies it out just before it hits.

Isn't that theoretically the worst case scenario for Tampa as far as a major hurricane track is concerned? The front right quadrant driving a storm surge into Tampa Bay and the bay funneling the surge into the city. Like what happened to Tacloban during Haiyan. Tampa and its bay is a disaster waiting to happen.

[al78]

Yeah I gotta go with the HWRF solution at this point. That HMON Cat 2/3 seems over the top... At least I hope it's over the top, you never know in 2020...

The NHC kept forecasting a steady state storm as it went through the keys before intensifying into a minimal cat 1 hurricane, and the storm has actually weakened, so it looks like the models have been overestimating the storm so far since it crossed Cuba.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1326162523532505088