Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 98L)

[ClarCari]

Will be very interesting to see the model guidance once this thing gets closer to development, since the half the guidance that sent Eta northeast ended up being correct.

A straight shot into CA will kill it, and unfortunately further devastate a populated area.

A shot of it reaching the WCar and this thing could blow up into yet another monster bc....yea. ugh!

[fci]

Not really expecting much from this.

In 2020 that is a bold, yet silly; proclamation.
I gave up predicting in 2020.

[ClarCari]

Upper-Level Winds and Air Moisture are almost perfect for TC development all the way to the WCar for at least the next few day.

I mean what could possibly go wrong....

[kevin]

Of course not all members show a strong hurricane, but the 06z GFS enesemble is very busy and shows Caribbean activity in the near future. Storm formation keeps moving closer in the timeframe with TD formation at roughly ~100 hours now (November 14/15). Looks very similar to Eta in terms of the highly favorable conditions in the WCar. I really hope they won't get hit by another storm, but I think the Nicaragua/Honduras region is at the highest risk for a possible landfall.

[cycloneye]

Code Red=70%

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to
move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or
western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[SconnieCane]

Code Red=70%

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to
move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or
western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Uncle!

[aspen]

Every model now shows development — even the Euro! All are showing a landfall somewhere in Central America but vary on the time, either as early as 6 days out or as late as nearly 10.

[aspen]

The SW Caribbean is full of nuclear-grade waters. MPIs have shot up to support a <900 mbar Cat 5, and if you look at the HWRF-P run for Eta, it shows a lot of 29-30C SSTs in the region. Depending on future 98L/Iota’s environment and core structure, it could be yet another late season Caribbean system to watch out for RI or ERI.

If Iota becomes another major, would this be a record for October-November major hurricanes? That would be four after the start of October, excluding Zeta (which will likely get upgraded to a C3 in post-season analysis).

[kevin]

The SW Caribbean is full of nuclear-grade waters. MPIs have shot up to support a <900 mbar Cat 5, and if you look at the HWRF-P run for Eta, it shows a lot of 29-30C SSTs in the region. Depending on future 98L/Iota’s environment and core structure, it could be yet another late season Caribbean system to watch out for RI or ERI.

If Iota becomes another major, would this be a record for October-November major hurricanes? That would be four after the start of October, excluding Zeta (which will likely get upgraded to a C3 in post-season analysis).

Imagine if after all that has happened this season and the recon troubles regarding Eta and its yes/no cat 5 status, it is a storm in the 2nd half of November that actually becomes this year's cat 5. Not saying it's likely, but the potential for a nasty system is definitely there in terms of MPI. Any idea on the expected shear or the impact Eta could have on the conditions where Iota is expected to form in the near future?

[aspen]

The SW Caribbean is full of nuclear-grade waters. MPIs have shot up to support a <900 mbar Cat 5, and if you look at the HWRF-P run for Eta, it shows a lot of 29-30C SSTs in the region. Depending on future 98L/Iota’s environment and core structure, it could be yet another late season Caribbean system to watch out for RI or ERI.

If Iota becomes another major, would this be a record for October-November major hurricanes? That would be four after the start of October, excluding Zeta (which will likely get upgraded to a C3 in post-season analysis).

Imagine if after all that has happened this season and the recon troubles regarding Eta and its yes/no cat 5 status, it is a storm in the 2nd half of November that actually becomes this year's cat 5. Not saying it's likely, but the potential for a nasty system is definitely there in terms of MPI. Any idea on the expected shear or the impact Eta could have on the conditions where Iota is expected to form in the near future?

I doubt Eta will be able to impact Iota much or at all. Being a weak TC in the central or northern Gulf, I don’t think it’ll influence the steering currents or impart any outflow-based shear. As for shear in general, I don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see until Iota’s genesis is close and any potential RI is within a few days away.

[kevin]

The SW Caribbean is full of nuclear-grade waters. MPIs have shot up to support a <900 mbar Cat 5, and if you look at the HWRF-P run for Eta, it shows a lot of 29-30C SSTs in the region. Depending on future 98L/Iota’s environment and core structure, it could be yet another late season Caribbean system to watch out for RI or ERI.

If Iota becomes another major, would this be a record for October-November major hurricanes? That would be four after the start of October, excluding Zeta (which will likely get upgraded to a C3 in post-season analysis).

And to answer your question: I just checked and if I didn't miss anything there has never been an Atlantic season with 4 major hurricanes in October and beyond. I've found many examples of 2 major hurricanes in October-November (1950, 1961, 1995, 2005, 2008 and more), but there's only 1 instance of 3 majors in October-November and that was in 2016 with Matthew, Nicole and Otto. So now we're tied with 2016 (or possibly ahead if Zeta gets upgraded) and one more major would surely break the record for October-November majors.

[jlauderdal]

The SW Caribbean is full of nuclear-grade waters. MPIs have shot up to support a <900 mbar Cat 5, and if you look at the HWRF-P run for Eta, it shows a lot of 29-30C SSTs in the region. Depending on future 98L/Iota’s environment and core structure, it could be yet another late season Caribbean system to watch out for RI or ERI.

If Iota becomes another major, would this be a record for October-November major hurricanes? That would be four after the start of October, excluding Zeta (which will likely get upgraded to a C3 in post-season analysis).

Nuclear grade is a first in over 20 years on these forums

[SconnieCane]

The SW Caribbean is full of nuclear-grade waters. MPIs have shot up to support a <900 mbar Cat 5, and if you look at the HWRF-P run for Eta, it shows a lot of 29-30C SSTs in the region. Depending on future 98L/Iota’s environment and core structure, it could be yet another late season Caribbean system to watch out for RI or ERI.

If Iota becomes another major, would this be a record for October-November major hurricanes? That would be four after the start of October, excluding Zeta (which will likely get upgraded to a C3 in post-season analysis).

Imagine if after all that has happened this season and the recon troubles regarding Eta and its yes/no cat 5 status, it is a storm in the 2nd half of November that actually becomes this year's cat 5. Not saying it's likely, but the potential for a nasty system is definitely there in terms of MPI. Any idea on the expected shear or the impact Eta could have on the conditions where Iota is expected to form in the near future?

Imagine that after Gamma, Delta, Zeta and Eta have all churned through that general region. Surely upwelling would have put a damper on all that by now, one would think, but not so much. Caribbean is cranking out TCs like it thinks it's the WPAC or something.

[underthwx]

The SW Caribbean is full of nuclear-grade waters. MPIs have shot up to support a <900 mbar Cat 5, and if you look at the HWRF-P run for Eta, it shows a lot of 29-30C SSTs in the region. Depending on future 98L/Iota’s environment and core structure, it could be yet another late season Caribbean system to watch out for RI or ERI.

If Iota becomes another major, would this be a record for October-November major hurricanes? That would be four after the start of October, excluding Zeta (which will likely get upgraded to a C3 in post-season analysis).

And to answer your question: I just checked and if I didn't miss anything there has never been an Atlantic season with 4 major hurricanes in October and beyond. I've found many examples of 2 major hurricanes in October-November (1950, 1961, 1995, 2005, 2008 and more), but there's only 1 instance of 3 majors in October-November and that was in 2016 with Matthew, Nicole and Otto. So now we're tied with 2016 (or possibly ahead if Zeta gets upgraded) and one more major would surely break the record for October-November majors.

This is an interesting setup coming in the days ahead...weather history in the making...I wish it didn't come at such a high price...

[cycloneye]

Invest 98L is up