WPAC: VAMCO - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

This is very likely close to a typhoon right now.



https://i.imgur.com/hLoQkvj.jpg

I'm not so sure. Dvorak is not really close to 4.0 and it's a broad system so it's not going to struggle like it does with pinholes. I think it could be another case like Eta where it appears stronger than it really is since it's easier to produce deep convection in November than it is in peak season. That being said however, I do think that this is stronger than 35 kts, maybe like 50-55kts. On top of this, I do think it's on its way to become a significant typhoon before landfall. I'm going with strong Cat 2/low Cat 3 right now.

[StormTracker89]

Looks like the JTWC 00Z intensity assessment is spot on based on 0029Z ASCAT pass. Even assuming a low bias for ASCAT, it's nowhere near 50-55kt. Granted it's rapidly intensifying but at 00Z it was not anything more than 35kt.

[Cunxi Huang]

06Z model runs.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like the CDO building process is about to commence.

[dexterlabio]

Looks like the CDO building process is about to commence.

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/16049948697351338718104.gif

We'll see what DMax will do.

[doomhaMwx]

Those hot towers rotating around the center possibly indicate that Vamco is trying to consolidate an inner core.

[mrbagyo]

Himawari-8 target area sector is still focused on Etau.
It must shift to Vamco by tomorrow.

[dexterlabio]

It seems like it is forming a tiny core despite the entire system being a pretty huge one.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 101155

A. TROPICAL STORM 25W (VAMCO)

B. 10/1130Z

C. 14.12N

D. 126.80E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0726Z 13.83N 127.80E SSMS


RHOADES

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 993.7mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 2.8 2.8

[Hayabusa]

JMA analyzed it as 3.0, STS upgrade could be coming.

[Hayabusa]

STS 2022 (Vamco)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 10 November 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 10 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°25' (14.4°)
E127°05' (127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 390 km (210 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°25' (14.4°)
E125°05' (125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area NE 175 km (95 NM)
SW 100 km (55 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°25' (14.4°)
E123°00' (123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55' (14.9°)
E117°40' (117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 210 km (115 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40' (14.7°)
E113°10' (113.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E109°10' (109.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°40' (16.7°)
E105°20' (105.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Vamco still looks rather loose - I'd say Category 2 is the ceiling.

[euro6208]

Up to 50 knots.


25W VAMCO 201110 1200 14.0N 126.7E WPAC 50 995

[dexterlabio]

Ingested some dry air. No surprise there since its outflow is expansive.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Up to 50 knots.


25W VAMCO 201110 1200 14.0N 126.7E WPAC 50 995

Got downgraded post warning.

25W VAMCO 201110 1200 14.4N 126.6E WPAC 45 996

[mrbagyo]

Large jagged core

[ElectricStorm]

25W VAMCO 201110 1800 14.7N 125.9E WPAC 60 989