ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3881 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:57 am

CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3882 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:59 am

Is the reformation happening further East?? Because no models had this happen...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3883 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:00 am

Been having a lot of pinholes this season.
Maybe this is the next one.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3884 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:00 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Is the reformation happening further East?? Because no models had this happen...


Looks like
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3885 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:00 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Is the reformation happening further East?? Because no models had this happen...


No reformation.. that is just a really bad satellite estimate. There is a eyewall on radar. cant see the entire thing since it is too far from the radar.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3886 Postby lando » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:01 am

GCANE wrote:CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

https://i.imgur.com/E64VqXL.gif

What does this mean
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3887 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:02 am

On this loop it does seem to be drifting northeast this morning, lots of lightning around the center too.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3888 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:03 am

SconnieCane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:There might be a slight tilt but there is a still an eyewall.
you only see the ouline of the other side of the eyewall. it is far from radar site and other convection masking it.

this is almost certainly a hurricane. and 50mph is laughable.

https://i.ibb.co/jHLgD98/ezgif-com-resize-14.gif


Gap between recon is laughable. Atlantic is turning into euro6208's WPAC. :roll:

True that Sconnie and Aric...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3889 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:06 am

lando wrote:
GCANE wrote:CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

https://i.imgur.com/E64VqXL.gif

What does this mean


Pumping in a lot more energy.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3890 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:07 am

Looks to be waaaay SE of Forecast Track

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3891 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:08 am

Up to 50 kts.

29L ETA 201110 1200 22.6N 85.3W ATL 50 992
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3892 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:13 am

This far south and a lot more intense TC and could see a big change in forecast track.
Huge difference now in the timing from the Rossby-Wave tug to drive to the NE.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3893 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:14 am

No recon = no clue
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3894 Postby chaser1 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:15 am

ronjon wrote:
Loveweather12 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Drifting east. Eyewall becoming clearer as it gets a little closer to the radar.

https://i.ibb.co/hsPM4Fs/ezgif-com-gif-maker-30.gif


How might that affect future track? How are conditions in the Gulf?


Think the obvious concern for us on the west coast of Florida is a strengthening or overperforming storm. A stronger storm will respond to the approaching trough and move ETA toward the NE as the HMON and COAMPs models suggest. In fact, if you believe COAMPs that could bring the storm into Tampa Bay in as little as 48 hrs.


Kind of my concern too. If this is going to make a run to the NE, then it'll be soon then later. I'm projecting a window from 36 hr's to 60 hr.s at the outside. Eta's intensification now presents this as a possibility and any near term NE to NNE motion would likely accelerate relatively soon suggesting this to occur. I'm not sure if the system has quite broached hurricane intensity but do agree with Aric that core eyewall appearance suggests it should be rather close. The integrity (or lack thereof) of it's vertical structure would probably be the greatest determining factor for a second hurricane risk to Florida west coast. Other key of course is whether models tend to increase or back off the approaching trough depth and ridge breakdown just ahead of it.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3895 Postby robbielyn » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:17 am

lando wrote:
GCANE wrote:CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

https://i.imgur.com/E64VqXL.gif

What does this mean



What is CAPE?

CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm. More specifically, it describes the instabilily of the atmosphere and provides an approximation of updraft strength within a thunderstorm. A higher value of CAPE means the atmosphere is more unstable and would therefore produce a stronger updraft.

To better understand this, consider a parcel of air that has been forced upward by some mechanism such as an approaching frontal boundary. Since warm air is less dense (lighter) than cold air, the parcel will continue rising on its own as long as its temperature remains warmer than its surroundings. This is the same concept as a hot air balloon, which uses a heat source to maintain a temperture within the balloon (air parcel) that is warmer than its surroundings. As long as this condition is met, the balloon will continue rising. Once the air temperature within the balloon cools and becomes equal to the air outside the balloon, it will stop rising.

CAPE is calculated by determing the area between the environmental temperature trace and the trajectory of an air parcel that is forced upwards on an atmospheric sounding. The image below shows an atmospheric sounding. The red line is the measured temperature of the surrounding air as you climb through the depth of the atmosphere. The yellow line represents the trajectory of an air parcel that has been forced to rise from the surface. As long as the yellow line (parcel) remains to the right of the red line (environment), the parcel is warmer than its surroundings and will continue to rise. The amount of CAPE in the sounding is therefore the area contained between the red and yellow lines. An atmospheric sounding such as the one below gives forecasters a quick visual way to assess how much fuel is available within the atmosphere.

Edit: Taken from the NHC. I thought it would paste NHC on here sorry. I'm smart but not that smart weatherwise to say all this on my own lol.
Last edited by robbielyn on Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3896 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:18 am

This looks a lot like a CCC structure to me, which usually happens when mid-level shear fractures the core. However, radar apparently shows at least a partial eyewall, so Eta isn’t a true CCC storm. Recon would be nice...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3897 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:20 am

aspen wrote:This looks a lot like a CCC structure to me, which usually happens when mid-level shear fractures the core. However, radar apparently shows at least a partial eyewall, so Eta isn’t a true CCC storm. Recon would be nice...

I am kinda outta the loop on recon...why are they not out there exactly?...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3898 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:21 am

Nice hole on 37GHz vertical polarization

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3899 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:22 am

Looks like a sheared TS to me... Some signs of the surface circulation being located on the western edge of the CDO on this morning's visible satellite imagery.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3900 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:23 am

robbielyn wrote:
lando wrote:
GCANE wrote:CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

https://i.imgur.com/E64VqXL.gif

What does this mean



What is CAPE?

CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm. More specifically, it describes the instabilily of the atmosphere and provides an approximation of updraft strength within a thunderstorm. A higher value of CAPE means the atmosphere is more unstable and would therefore produce a stronger updraft.

To better understand this, consider a parcel of air that has been forced upward by some mechanism such as an approaching frontal boundary. Since warm air is less dense (lighter) than cold air, the parcel will continue rising on its own as long as its temperature remains warmer than its surroundings. This is the same concept as a hot air balloon, which uses a heat source to maintain a temperture within the balloon (air parcel) that is warmer than its surroundings. As long as this condition is met, the balloon will continue rising. Once the air temperature within the balloon cools and becomes equal to the air outside the balloon, it will stop rising.

CAPE is calculated by determing the area between the environmental temperature trace and the trajectory of an air parcel that is forced upwards on an atmospheric sounding. The image below shows an atmospheric sounding. The red line is the measured temperature of the surrounding air as you climb through the depth of the atmosphere. The yellow line represents the trajectory of an air parcel that has been forced to rise from the surface. As long as the yellow line (parcel) remains to the right of the red line (environment), the parcel is warmer than its surroundings and will continue to rise. The amount of CAPE in the sounding is therefore the area contained between the red and yellow lines. An atmospheric sounding such as the one below gives forecasters a quick visual way to assess how much fuel is available within the atmosphere.

Robbielyn....Im giving you an A for that!....but seriously...good post...up till your post... I didn't have a clue what CAPE was... Thanks for that...
Last edited by underthwx on Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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