ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3941 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:30 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
wxman57 wrote:LLC is completely exposed NW of the convection (about where the red dot is). I would say 60 kts is generous for intensity. Maybe 45-50. Could sure use a recon. New GFS keeps Eta a TS longer on Thursday and stalls it farther east before dissipating in in the NE Gulf by Saturday. Where it tracks after Thursday depends on its intensity. Stronger = NNE-NE, weaker = W=NW.

http://wxman57.com/images/EtaCenter.JPG

In all fairness the NHC does not have this at 60kt, that's Theta.

9 am NHC has ETA at 60 mph, correct???
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3942 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:34 pm

underthwx wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
wxman57 wrote:LLC is completely exposed NW of the convection (about where the red dot is). I would say 60 kts is generous for intensity. Maybe 45-50. Could sure use a recon. New GFS keeps Eta a TS longer on Thursday and stalls it farther east before dissipating in in the NE Gulf by Saturday. Where it tracks after Thursday depends on its intensity. Stronger = NNE-NE, weaker = W=NW.

http://wxman57.com/images/EtaCenter.JPG

In all fairness the NHC does not have this at 60kt, that's Theta.

9 am NHC has ETA at 60 mph, correct???

Yes, that would be 50kt.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3943 Postby nativefloridian » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:40 pm

Nuno wrote:Also, do we have any estimation for highest recorded gusts in Florida as a result of Eta? Couldn't have been higher than 50-55 MPH tops here in central-coastal Miami-Dade.


According to an article in today's Sun Sentinel, a wind gust of 68 mph was recorded at Port Everglades in Broward.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3944 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:42 pm

Convection now in pulsing mode.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3945 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:03 pm

GCANE wrote:Convection now in pulsing mode.

Can’t wait to see the gravity waves on this one.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3946 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:20 pm

Only half of Eta hit, it looks like it was cut in two! :lol:


Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3947 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:29 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
GCANE wrote:Convection now in pulsing mode.

Can’t wait to see the gravity waves on this one.


That escalated quickly

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3948 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:33 pm

Definiately tilted some... however the center is farther east than most are claiming on here..

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3949 Postby crimi481 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:33 pm

Memories of Charley. I am in Englewood. Eta wants no ropes
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3950 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:37 pm

This is the deepest cold pool of the season.
No wonder this is going gangbusters.
Warm core displaced west of the CoC.
Cold pool to the east.
If this stacks, its off to the races.

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3951 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:40 pm

GCANE wrote:This is the deepest cold pool of the season.
No wonder this is going gangbusters.
Warm core displaced west of the CoC.
Cold pool to the east.
If this stacks, its off to the races.

https://i.imgur.com/JvV6DmY.png

It's under some moderate 20kt shear.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3952 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:41 pm

Dry air being pinched off

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3953 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:42 pm

GCANE wrote:This is the deepest cold pool of the season.
No wonder this is going gangbusters.
Warm core displaced west of the CoC.
Cold pool to the east.
If this stacks, its off to the races.

https://i.imgur.com/JvV6DmY.png



Oh boy, here we go again

People arguing on Eta: :yesno:

'Yes' is saying Eta is displaced to the NW
'No' is saying Eta is stacking up!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3954 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:42 pm

GCANE wrote:Dry air being pinched off

https://i.imgur.com/8hTHGOl.png

There was a LOT more just 2 days ago.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3955 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:43 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
GCANE wrote:This is the deepest cold pool of the season.
No wonder this is going gangbusters.
Warm core displaced west of the CoC.
Cold pool to the east.
If this stacks, its off to the races.

https://i.imgur.com/JvV6DmY.png

It's under some moderate 20kt shear.


Actually, for a cold pool, moderate shear enhances convection and helps make it self sustaining.
The pulsing convection is a clear indication that it is cold-pool driven.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3956 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:44 pm

GCANE wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
GCANE wrote:This is the deepest cold pool of the season.
No wonder this is going gangbusters.
Warm core displaced west of the CoC.
Cold pool to the east.
If this stacks, its off to the races.

https://i.imgur.com/JvV6DmY.png

It's under some moderate 20kt shear.


Actually, for a cold pool, moderate shear enhances convection and helps make it self sustaining.
The pulsing convection is a clear indication that it is cold-pool driven.

Exactly, but at the same time it becomes slightly tilted which prevents any RI for the time being.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3957 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:45 pm

GCANE wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
GCANE wrote:This is the deepest cold pool of the season.
No wonder this is going gangbusters.
Warm core displaced west of the CoC.
Cold pool to the east.
If this stacks, its off to the races.

https://i.imgur.com/JvV6DmY.png

It's under some moderate 20kt shear.


Actually, for a cold pool, moderate shear enhances convection and helps make it self sustaining.
The pulsing convection is a clear indication that it is cold-pool driven.

Is the CoC still displaced or reforming?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3958 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:46 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
GCANE wrote:This is the deepest cold pool of the season.
No wonder this is going gangbusters.
Warm core displaced west of the CoC.
Cold pool to the east.
If this stacks, its off to the races.

https://i.imgur.com/JvV6DmY.png



Oh boy, here we go again

People arguing on Eta: :yesno:

'Yes' is saying Eta is displaced to the NW
'No' is saying Eta is stacking up!


According to that thermal profile, it is not yet stacked.
To stack, there needs to be some good high helicity towers / vortical hot towers.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3959 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:48 pm

GCANE wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
GCANE wrote:This is the deepest cold pool of the season.
No wonder this is going gangbusters.
Warm core displaced west of the CoC.
Cold pool to the east.
If this stacks, its off to the races.

https://i.imgur.com/JvV6DmY.png



Oh boy, here we go again

People arguing on Eta: :yesno:

'Yes' is saying Eta is displaced to the NW
'No' is saying Eta is stacking up!


According to that thermal profile, it is not yet stacked.
To stack, there needs to be some good high helicity towers / vortical hot towers.

And the CoC to slip back into the cold core

EDIT: UMMMM! I SPOKE TOO SOON! :shocked!:

Image
Last edited by Iceresistance on Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3960 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:50 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
GCANE wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:It's under some moderate 20kt shear.


Actually, for a cold pool, moderate shear enhances convection and helps make it self sustaining.
The pulsing convection is a clear indication that it is cold-pool driven.

Is the CoC still displaced or reforming?


Looks like a high-helicity hot tower just fired with a short duration warm-core future.
Looks like it may be on its way.
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