ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

What does 989 indicate Ice?..I don't know millibars like yall do....

989 MilliBars, that is what the NHC uses for central pressure of a tropical cyclone.

Lol...yeah..I understand that part...my question was...what strength does 989 millobars indicate?

Strong TS, maybe hurricane.

This thing may be rapidly deepening if this keeps going like this.

[Dean4Storms]

Agree with Aric...... strongest winds should be out to the east or NE of the center. Think this recon came in from the NNE.

[underthwx]

989 MilliBars, that is what the NHC uses for central pressure of a tropical cyclone.

Lol...yeah..I understand that part...my question was...what strength does 989 millobars indicate?

Strong TS, maybe hurricane.

This thing may be rapidly deepening if this keeps going like this.

Thanks!....as always...

[AutoPenalti]

Was that a drop in the center?

Yes

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 23:05Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 29 in 2020
Storm Name: Eta (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 08

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 22:47:35Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.40N 84.59W
B. Center Fix Location: 143 statute miles (230 km) to the W (278°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,347m (4,419ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 5° at 4kts (From the N at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (54.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNW (338°) of center fix at 22:38:20Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 53kts (From the ESE at 61.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix at 22:28:45Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SW (225°) of center fix at 22:54:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 310° at 34kts (From the NW at 39.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SW (225°) of center fix at 22:55:05Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,537m (5,043ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) which was observed 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) from the flight level center at 22:28:45Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

If thats the center, it’s well east of 18z

Again.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop

Winds picking up across South Florida might be a sign Eta is deepening.

[Iceresistance]

Eta has been having consistant lightning since around Noon!

[Iceresistance]

Saved loop

Winds picking up across South Florida might be a sign Eta is deepening.

https://i.postimg.cc/0jQd4MW8/goes16-ir-29-L-202011102202.gif

Eta is also having consistant lightning as well!

[ElectricStorm]

Saved loop

Winds picking up across South Florida might be a sign Eta is deepening.

https://i.postimg.cc/0jQd4MW8/goes16-ir-29-L-202011102202.gif

That does not look like it's moving north at all... More like ENE. That's gonna catch a lot of people off guard if it keeps that up

[Iceresistance]

Saved loop

Winds picking up across South Florida might be a sign Eta is deepening.

https://i.postimg.cc/0jQd4MW8/goes16-ir-29-L-202011102202.gif

That does not look like it's moving north at all... More like ENE. That's gonna catch a lot of people off guard if it keeps that up

Or worse. . .

[underthwx]

Saved loop

Winds picking up across South Florida might be a sign Eta is deepening.

https://i.postimg.cc/0jQd4MW8/goes16-ir-29-L-202011102202.gif

That does not look like it's moving north at all... More like ENE. That's gonna catch a lot of people off guard if it keeps that up

I agree with that ENE motion...earlier I posted NNE...but I was wrong...

[xironman]

High density obs back on. Plenty of +50 kt 850 winds north of Cuba. TT kicked in when it started communicating

[Iceresistance]

Saved loop

Winds picking up across South Florida might be a sign Eta is deepening.

https://i.postimg.cc/0jQd4MW8/goes16-ir-29-L-202011102202.gif

NHC: Eta is expected to move north & start to weaken because of the dry air & wind shear



Eta: I have other Ideas. . .

[beachnut]

When I was outside about 30 mins ago before sunset I could see a lot of low-level clouds/moisture feed just a few hundred feet up streaming quick to the WSW. Now I see why ...

[Iceresistance]

High density obs back on. Plenty of +50 kt 850 winds north of Cuba. TT kicked in when it started communicating

You may have spoke too soon.

[Aric Dunn]

[supercane4867]

If Eta strengthens back into a hurricane in the GOM during mid-November it's gonna end up to be one of the most bizarre weirdo storms of all time.

[sponger]

NHC trying to will this North? Not going to happen. This is heading back to Florida! Question is do they put up hurricane watches at ten?

[Nuno]

If Eta strengthens back into a hurricane in the GOM during mid-November it's gonna end up to be one of the most bizarre weirdo storms of all time.

I mean, Eta is already in the most bizarre weirdo storm conversation as is

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC trying to will this North? Not going to happen. This is heading back to Florida! Question is do they put up hurricane watches at ten?

they mentioned they were likely to shift the track eastward and given recent developments there isn't much doubt they will

[Aric Dunn]

Lower keys just a couple hours from the strongest winds ..

NHC may want to sort of mention something about the motion..