ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Assuming there isn’t a center reformation going on, Eta has an absolutely horrible structure — LLC exposed from deep convection, shallow pressure gradient, rising pressure, etc. I don’t see it strengthening much or at all. Recon barely even supports 45 kt.

I guess looks can be deceiving, reminds me of Isaias when he was E of FL. Eventually Isaias got his act together...

[NDG]

64 knot winds at flight level by the MLC.

RNT15 KWBC 110038
NOAA2 1829A ETA HDOB 09 20201111
002900 2321N 08350W 8427 01486 9980 +189 //// 219055 056 038 002 01
002930 2321N 08348W 8416 01496 9980 +189 //// 217055 056 041 002 01
003000 2320N 08346W 8409 01505 9982 +190 +184 213053 054 039 001 00
003030 2319N 08344W 8426 01491 9989 +188 +182 211052 052 039 000 00
003100 2319N 08342W 8431 01490 9992 +184 +178 211052 052 037 001 00
003130 2318N 08340W 8430 01492 9993 +184 +181 214054 056 038 002 00
003200 2317N 08338W 8432 01488 9993 +184 //// 217057 058 038 001 01
003230 2317N 08336W 8426 01498 9993 +187 //// 220053 053 038 001 01
003300 2316N 08334W 8417 01504 9995 +186 //// 217056 059 038 002 01
003330 2315N 08332W 8429 01499 0000 +184 //// 213062 064 041 003 01
003400 2314N 08330W 8431 01499 0004 +181 //// 206061 063 042 009 01
003430 2313N 08329W 8423 01509 0005 +183 //// 205057 058 043 015 01
003500 2313N 08327W 8417 01515 0009 +180 //// 206061 062 049 023 01
003530 2312N 08325W 8431 01504 0009 +184 +182 206062 063 054 029 00
003600 2311N 08323W 8417 01511 0010 +180 //// 206059 061 046 035 01
003630 2310N 08321W 8425 01512 0013 +183 +181 208056 058 040 029 00
003700 2309N 08319W 8419 01520 0019 +180 //// 207051 051 044 023 01
003730 2309N 08317W 8408 01536 0025 +176 //// 195054 056 037 022 01
003800 2308N 08316W 8431 01514 0024 +177 //// 197052 055 040 019 01
003830 2307N 08314W 8433 01508 0024 +178 //// 194050 052 039 019 01

[aspen]

Assuming there isn’t a center reformation going on, Eta has an absolutely horrible structure — LLC exposed from deep convection, shallow pressure gradient, rising pressure, etc. I don’t see it strengthening much or at all. Recon barely even supports 45 kt.

Of course just as I post that, recon finds 65 kt FL and 55 kt SFMR.

[ElectricStorm]

Eta looks like crap right now. Some of the models including the HWRF, which I highly respect this season in terms of storm structure, are showing Eta getting it's act together tomorrow. We'll see. Either way, the farther east it goes the stronger it could get before landfall, assuming it's ever able to stack.

EDIT: And recon now finding hurricane force FL winds. LOL

[Aric Dunn]

64 knot winds at flight level by the MLC.

RNT15 KWBC 110038
NOAA2 1829A ETA HDOB 09 20201111
002900 2321N 08350W 8427 01486 9980 +189 //// 219055 056 038 002 01
002930 2321N 08348W 8416 01496 9980 +189 //// 217055 056 041 002 01
003000 2320N 08346W 8409 01505 9982 +190 +184 213053 054 039 001 00
003030 2319N 08344W 8426 01491 9989 +188 +182 211052 052 039 000 00
003100 2319N 08342W 8431 01490 9992 +184 +178 211052 052 037 001 00
003130 2318N 08340W 8430 01492 9993 +184 +181 214054 056 038 002 00
003200 2317N 08338W 8432 01488 9993 +184 //// 217057 058 038 001 01
003230 2317N 08336W 8426 01498 9993 +187 //// 220053 053 038 001 01
003300 2316N 08334W 8417 01504 9995 +186 //// 217056 059 038 002 01
003330 2315N 08332W 8429 01499 0000 +184 //// 213062 064 041 003 01
003400 2314N 08330W 8431 01499 0004 +181 //// 206061 063 042 009 01
003430 2313N 08329W 8423 01509 0005 +183 //// 205057 058 043 015 01
003500 2313N 08327W 8417 01515 0009 +180 //// 206061 062 049 023 01
003530 2312N 08325W 8431 01504 0009 +184 +182 206062 063 054 029 00
003600 2311N 08323W 8417 01511 0010 +180 //// 206059 061 046 035 01
003630 2310N 08321W 8425 01512 0013 +183 +181 208056 058 040 029 00
003700 2309N 08319W 8419 01520 0019 +180 //// 207051 051 044 023 01
003730 2309N 08317W 8408 01536 0025 +176 //// 195054 056 037 022 01
003800 2308N 08316W 8431 01514 0024 +177 //// 197052 055 040 019 01
003830 2307N 08314W 8433 01508 0024 +178 //// 194050 052 039 019 01

Actually pretty far from the new center.

[Iceresistance]

The center has reformed & spinning faster.

EDIT: 65 knots has been recorded again

[Jr0d]

67 kt flight winds with the latest data set. Not bad for a de-coupled system.

Key West has stronger winds now than we had while under warnings Sunday night. Its going to be an interesting night.

[Aric Dunn]

The center has reformed & spinning faster.

EDIT: 65 knots has been recorded again

Definitely a reformation.

and it was a 67kt FL well outside the heaviest convection still.

we could be looking at a rapis spin up hurricane with the new center.

[StPeteMike]

I think it’s getting it’s act together and will have a day to do so. A hurricane is most likely, Cat 2 is possible.

Just want to mention SST. Though still cooler than months ago, are still around 78 F just off the coast of Pinellas. Though it won’t strengthen more, rapid weakening seems crazy. Any weakening won’t happen before the west coast feels the impact.

[Nimbus]

Should see conditions start to diminish at this buoy if there has been a center reformation further east.

25.171 N 83.475 W

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CST

[Aric Dunn]

more FL hurricane winds outside the deepest convection..

and I swear if they avoid flying through the new center .. lol

[GCANE]

This is feeding off a pool of increasingly unstable air.
CAPE has increased to 3500

[ElectricStorm]

more FL hurricane winds outside the deepest convection..

and I swear if they avoid flying through the new center .. lol

https://i.ibb.co/qDq2bcS/Capture.png

Isn't that the mid level circulation though?

[Iceresistance]

more FL hurricane winds outside the deepest convection..

and I swear if they avoid flying through the new center .. lol

https://i.ibb.co/qDq2bcS/Capture.png

You spoke too soon

[cycloneye]

New Levi Cowan video.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1326330702699376640

[GCANE]

Recon's fix well east of current forecast track

[Jr0d]

Winds up to 30kt gusting to 37kt at Sand Key light. This steady increase may warrent tropical storm warnings for the lower Keys in my amatuer opinion.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sanf1

[Aric Dunn]

Full reformation is nearly complete.

[Iceresistance]

Umm, that LLC is still there

[Aric Dunn]

Umm, that LLC is still there

you can see it rapidly weakening..

very light winds now. pressure is nearly the same farther east.