ATL: ETA - Models

[ColdMiser123]

How significant impacts to Tampa are going to be will be highly sensitive on whether this east trend over the last several GFS runs keeps continuing.

[ronjon]

From 4 pm NHC Disc:

The initial motion estimate is now northward, or 360/06 kt. The
biggest surprise is the large eastward shift in all of the NHC model
guidance, which was possibly due at least in part to all of the
dropsondes that the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft dropped around Eta
earlier this morning, All of the guidance is now in good agreement
on a broad, deep-layer trough moving eastward across the
south-central and southeastern United States, which will erode the
subtropical ridge to the north of Eta that has been impeding
Eta's poleward progress he past couple of days. This generally
northward to northeastward steering pattern is expected to persist
through the entire 120-h forecast period, with only slight shifts
east or west of he current forecast track due to how vertically deep
Eta remains when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
Apalachee Bay in a few days. The current forecast track maintains
Eta as at least a moderate tropical cyclone through the period, with
only a slight bend back toward the northwest when the system is
expected to interact with an approaching frontal system. The new NHC
track forecast has been shifted about 150 n mi east of the previous
advisory track at 96 and 120 hours, and further eastward shifts in
the track may be required, closer to the consensus models TCVA/TVCN
and NOAA-HCCA.

[jlauderdal]

How significant impacts to Tampa are going to be will be highly sensitive on whether this east trend over the last several GFS runs keeps continuing.

That looks like a heavy rain setup for sofla...

[MetroMike]

Thats what I get for writing off this storm from my location,could not believe the models would change drastically given all the West trends late couple of days.

[gatorcane]

HWRF shifts a bit east, looks like TS conditions for the Tampa area.

[gatorcane]

Hello Tampa, shift east from NHC on tap for next update.

[Blown Away]

Hello Tampa, shift east from NHC on tap for next update.

https://i.postimg.cc/85GWryqJ/29-L-tracks-00z.png

Man these guidance models have been all over the place with Eta. NHC going to be glad when this storm is over.

[gatorcane]

GFS trend:

[ronjon]

Hello Tampa, shift east from NHC on tap for next update.

https://i.postimg.cc/85GWryqJ/29-L-tracks-00z.png

Yeah Gator even all the mesoscale models are now converging on somewhere between Clearwater and Cedar Key now with my house near landfall. Looks like I'll have to start sand bagging downstairs tomorrow and possibly extend shutters. Hopefully it'll be under hurricane strength but thats not a given as some models bringing it near Tampa latitude in the 970s-980s mb range. This storm may catch alot of people by surprise on the west coast.

[sponger]

Hello Tampa, shift east from NHC on tap for next update.

https://i.postimg.cc/85GWryqJ/29-L-tracks-00z.png

Yeah Gator even all the mesoscale models are now converging on somewhere between Clearwater and Cedar Key now with my house near landfall. Looks like I'll have to start sand bagging downstairs tomorrow and possibly extend shutters. Hopefully it'll be under hurricane strength but thats not a given as some models bringing it near Tampa latitude in the 970s-980s mb range. This storm may catch alot of people by surprise on the west coast.

The entire forecast is based on this becoming a North moving decoupled mess with a naked center. If this manages to come in South of Tampa, the impact will be much different. Might have to hang for the Euro this evening just to get an idea of it follows or comes even more East of GFS.

[Blown Away]

Hello Tampa, shift east from NHC on tap for next update.

https://i.postimg.cc/85GWryqJ/29-L-tracks-00z.png

Yeah Gator even all the mesoscale models are now converging on somewhere between Clearwater and Cedar Key now with my house near landfall. Looks like I'll have to start sand bagging downstairs tomorrow and possibly extend shutters. Hopefully it'll be under hurricane strength but thats not a given as some models bringing it near Tampa latitude in the 970s-980s mb range. This storm may catch alot of people by surprise on the west coast.

Yeah, storms find their way around Tampa and Cedar Key is a common track. I think strong TS to minimal Cat 1 looks likely.

[NDG]

Hello Tampa, shift east from NHC on tap for next update.

https://i.postimg.cc/85GWryqJ/29-L-tracks-00z.png

Even the not so good any more UKMET shifted east.

[Blown Away]

Hello Tampa, shift east from NHC on tap for next update.

https://i.postimg.cc/85GWryqJ/29-L-tracks-00z.png

Even the not so good any more UKMET shifted east.

Unless Eta is being heavily sheared, she is clearly moving ENE which is already E of all the 00z early guidance. Lol, It’s like a broken record saying Eta is moving R of the track.

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM coming in a bit stronger near Tampa:

[Michele B]

Hello Tampa, shift east from NHC on tap for next update.

https://i.postimg.cc/85GWryqJ/29-L-tracks-00z.png

Yeah Gator even all the mesoscale models are now converging on somewhere between Clearwater and Cedar Key now with my house near landfall. Looks like I'll have to start sand bagging downstairs tomorrow and possibly extend shutters. Hopefully it'll be under hurricane strength but thats not a given as some models bringing it near Tampa latitude in the 970s-980s mb range. This storm may catch alot of people by surprise on the west coast.

Well, down near Charlotte County, we watched Charley's quick turn too.

Even if this storm doesn't find the Peace River, like Charley did, and does make a beeline for Sarasota, we are on the "dirty side" of it, and if it's a full-blown hurricane, we'll have a rough ride.

Trouble is, we are not living in a good, stout house, like we were in Charley. "Downsized," don'cha know? ANd now I wonder WTH I was thinking!

Holdin' our breath here.

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS shifts slightly east again with Tampa in its sights

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Watching closely the trends here in Tampa... seems like 28N is the furthest this thing can go without getting decapitated. If it can manage to squeak in a landfall just south of Tampa, odds increase of strong tropical storm impacts in Tampa.

[ElectricStorm]

HMON/HWRF have a similar track north of Tampa, HWRF peaks as a lower end Cat 1. HMON peaks as and upper Cat 1/low Cat 2. Both of them have Eta weakening before landfall.

[sponger]

Euro run initialized way to far West.

[NDG]

According to the latest 06z HWRF Eta already peaked this morning, a slow weakening during the day today.
Convection refiring later this afternoon and evening but weaker by then.