WPAC: VAMCO - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

Large jagged core
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/20201110.1958.f18.91h.25W.VAMCO.60kts.989mb.14.7N.125.9E.060pc.jpg

Once again, the HWRF correctly predicted a system’s core structure. It was showing a large eye for days despite being stronger than reality.

[Hayabusa]

Track more north again, what a shift last 5 warnings had it passing south or almost directly over Manila.

WDPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH CURVED RAIN BANDS CONTINUING TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED UPON BANDING FEATURES IN THE EIR
LOOP AS WELL AS IN THE 101708Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE. AGENCIES REPORT
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW, AND
T3.5/55KTS FROM KNES, AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON A 101706Z
CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 62KTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW
(05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA REMAIN WARM AND
FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS THE STR BUILDS IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 25W WILL TRACK ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES, PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH
OF POLILLO ISLAND AND LAMON BAY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PROVINCE OF BULACAN AROUND TAU 24. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
FAVORABLE AND FUEL A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 85KTS BY THIS TIME.
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KTS BY TAU 36. AS TS VAMCO EXITS INTO THE WARM SCS
IT WILL THEN RE-CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN TO 75KTS THROUGH TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AND THUS LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS VAMCO WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. DURING THIS
TIME, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SST TO 60 KTS BY TAU 96. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL VIETNAM WHEREUPON THE RUGGED
TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35KTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD INCREASES FROM 260NM SPREAD AT TAU 96 TO OVER
520NM AT TAU 120. THIS INCREASING SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
LENDS OVERALL POOR CONFIDENCE IN THIS FINAL PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WITH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[aspen]

Vamco is really starting to improve on IR and visible. It has 18-24 hours left before landfall, so perhaps it could get to C3 status at the most. The large size of the system will mean a much wide extent of impacts from the core than Goni.

[Hayabusa]

JMA analyzed it as 4.0, typhoon upgrade coming.

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 102127

A. TROPICAL STORM 25W (VAMCO)

B. 10/2050Z

C. 14.83N

D. 125.23E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. DT IS 3.5 BASED
ON .80 WRAP ON A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND. MET IS 3.0 AND PT IS 3.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1708Z 14.85N 125.78E MMHS


GOODMAN

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 102105
TCSWNP

A. 25W (VAMCO)

B. 10/2030Z

C. 14.6N

D. 125.1E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 9/10
WHITE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET IS EQUAL TO 3.5
AND PT IS EQUAL TO 4.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST 24H. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/1958Z 14.4N 125.0E SSMIS


...TUGGLE

[euro6208]

Sunrise over Vamco

[Hayabusa]

TY 2022 (Vamco)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 November 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 11 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°35' (14.6°)
E124°35' (124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 440 km (240 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°50' (14.8°)
E122°55' (122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 175 km (95 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E119°35' (119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10' (15.2°)
E115°50' (115.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E111°40' (111.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 185 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 15 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°30' (16.5°)
E108°00' (108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N17°20' (17.3°)
E104°35' (104.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking this is a typhoon now. Likely not going to get too strong before landfall due to the broadness of the system. Maybe 75-85 kts. Much better than the early Cat 3/Cat 4 potential it had early on, but it will still be destructive.

[euro6208]

25W VAMCO 201111 0000 14.8N 124.5E WPAC 75 967

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.2 7.3

[climateconcernnew]

Old member here (but not that active)! I lost my old account. Well this is not looking good for all of us here specifically in Central Luzon.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.2 7.3

[Hayabusa]

Peak upped to 95 knots

[euro6208]

Rapid intensification likely.

WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH CURVED RAIN
BANDS CONTINUING TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). FURTHERMORE, AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED UPON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE MSI LOOP AS WELL AS IN THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 102203Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. MULTIPLE
AGENCIES REPORT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THESE AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON A 102145Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 67KTS AND AN INCREASING TREND NOTED IN ADJUSTED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM OBJECTIVE DVORAK METHODS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW
(05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA REMAIN
WARM AND FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS THE STR BUILDS IN THE NEAR TERM, TY 25W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES THROUGH
TAU 12. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE DURING THIS
TIME. ADDITIONALLY, ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE LANDFALL.
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
PROVINCE OF BULACAN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. AFTERWARD,
LAND INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KTS BY TAU 24.
AS TY VAMCO EXITS INTO THE WARM SCS IT WILL THEN RE-CONSOLIDATE
AND STRENGTHEN TO 75KTS THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO GENERALLY
FAVORABLE VWS AND SST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AND THUS LEND HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY VAMCO WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. DURING THIS
TIME, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SST TO 55 KTS BY TAU 96. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL VIETNAM WHEREUPON
THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD INCREASES FROM 345NM SPREAD AT
TAU 96 TO OVER 580NM AT TAU 120. THIS INCREASING SPREAD IN
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL POOR CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FINAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[aspen]

Sunrise over Vamco

https://i.imgur.com/9MUWKoD.gif

Where did you get that image? I know ssd.noaa.gov had eastern hemisphere cyclone images in that exact format, but the site hasn’t been working since the spring.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking this is a typhoon now. Likely not going to get too strong before landfall due to the broadness of the system. Maybe 75-85 kts. Much better than the early Cat 3/Cat 4 potential it had early on, but it will still be destructive.

Ok scratch that. Vamco looks pretty good now. Cat 3 is certainly back in play.

[doomhaMwx]

Large ragged eye clearing out on satellite images as it skirts the coast of Bicol

[euro6208]

Catanduanes which got hit by 170 knots Goni is getting the southern eyewall at the moment.

[mrbagyo]

I can't see any latitude gain ATM.