WPAC: VAMCO - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Sunrise over Vamco

https://i.imgur.com/9MUWKoD.gif

Where did you get that image? I know ssd.noaa.gov had eastern hemisphere cyclone images in that exact format, but the site hasn’t been working since the spring.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/VAMCO.html

It's working now.

[1900hurricane]

Pretty big core developing here. Think Vamco had the potential to become high end if it weren't making landfall so soon, but it still has a chance to get pretty strong regardless.

[mrbagyo]

Just north of Catanduanes

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

988.57 hPa - 1:30 PM - Daet, Camarines Norte

[mrbagyo]

JMA upped it to 70 knots
- peak 80 knots before touch down


TY 2022 (Vamco)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 11 November 2020

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 11 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°25' (14.4°)
E123°30' (123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 440 km (240 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10' (15.2°)
E121°25' (121.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

25W VAMCO 201111 0600 14.6N 123.4E WPAC 80 975

[mrbagyo]

Forward speed has slowed down - Daet pressure barely moving. Vamco would probably start moving WNW

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 973.2mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.7 5.7

[Thon1357]

This typhoon has been on us since morning until now here in Legazpi City. Despite the center being far away from us. This storm is huge and seems to be moving slowly right now. PAGASA forecasted landfall between 6-8pm on Polillo Island but based on satellite pics it seems it is still over waters near Camarines Norte as of this time. I think this will cause more damage than Goni despite not being an STY, due to the large diameter and slow movement. The rains are also quite heavier than Goni's, reports of flooding all over Albay has been reported starting this afternoon including a possible lahar flow warning from Philvolcs

[mrbagyo]

This typhoon has been on us since morning until now here in Legazpi City. Despite the center being far away from us. This storm is huge and seems to be moving slowly right now. PAGASA forecasted landfall between 6-8pm on Polillo Island but based on satellite pics it seems it is still over waters near Camarines Norte as of this time. I think this will cause more damage than Goni despite not being an STY, due to the large diameter and slow movement. The rains are also quite heavier than Goni's, reports of flooding all over Albay has been reported starting this afternoon including a possible lahar flow warning from Philvolcs

Yeah, it did slow down considerably. Now, it's crawling WNW based on latest radar animation.

Lots of places are now flooded in the Bicol region- Daet has already seen 350 mm today (add the 107mm yesterday and thats >450 mm within 2 days).
Stay safe mate! This too shall pass.

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/dzrhnews/status/1326494796408524800

[Hayabusa]

90 knots?

TPPN12 PGTW 111226

A. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO)

B. 11/1150Z

C. 14.48N

D. 122.82E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET AND PT
YIELDS A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ELIAS

[euro6208]

90 to 95 knots seems reasonable.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11110505
SATCON: MSLP = 963 hPa MSW = 93 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 91.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 93 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Double digit positive eye temp
2020NOV11 143000 5.4 960.3 99.6 5.4 6.1 6.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.70 -68.06 EYE

[euro6208]

Close up of JTWC track.

[ManilaTC]

Its getting bad now... roofs are banging...