ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

it looks like some weakening is occurring at the same time as Storm is growing in size I'm basing this on water vapor imaging can anyone confirm this??

Looks like it had about 30 minutes of a really nice eye on radar and then quickly collapsed.
IR showing cloud tops rapidly warming.
Somehow Imgur is not downloading. I have a couple nice shots of radar when it peaked.

[robbielyn]

it looks like some weakening is occurring at the same time as Storm is growing in size I'm basing this on water vapor imaging can anyone confirm this??

per nhc 4am disco strength is increasing now at 60 knots set to increase to 70 knots.

[caneman]

Looks like we could be losing power here in Clearwater. Seems to be on track for Tarpon Springs. Just North of Clearwater. If it does go in there or up the bay, It doesn't look like it would weaken before hand

per 4am disco landfall near cedar key big bend area. but we r under hurricane watch now.

I'm aware of what the disco says. I'm tracking real time which is always more accurate. Eta has continued with an eastward push. Pretty sure it will be south of Cedar Key. Still a NNE track forecasted in. My money says it will come in between Clearwater Beach to Spring Hill. I think it has time to reach hurricane. Dont think it weakens either unless it get north of Tarpon

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1326451636219375616

[GCANE]

Great, Imgur is back up.
Here are the radar shots at peak.

[GCANE]

I don't see any dry-air entrainment.
In fact there seems to be a moderate feeder band coming from the W Carib.
Core is in 3000 CAPE with increasing helicity.
If the cold pool is still intact, could see one more large convective burst before landfall.
Hopefully, it won't catch everyone off guard.

[caneman]

I don't see any dry-air entrainment.
In fact there seems to be a moderate feeder band coming from the W Carib.
Core is in 3000 CAPE with increasing helicity.
If the cold pool is still intact, could see one more large convective burst before landfall.
Hopefully, it won't catch everyone off guard.

https://i.imgur.com/A25uaq7.png

https://i.imgur.com/bAWzCZk.gif

https://i.imgur.com/I3cYupx.gif

I think it will catch people off guard. There wasn't the typical buildup from the media with the large east shifts happening recently. Further, no one thought it could possibly hit Cat. 1. There has been zero storm preparedness here in Clearwater area- Tampa Bay area. I track these things and I'm going to have to scramble now as my preparedness stuff has dwindled being so late in the season

[feederband]

Trust me alot of peeps in that area are Texting me what the he !! .....

[xironman]

Southeast of the center does seem to show some dry air issues. HRRR shows a convective burst in the next few hours, that may hold it together

[hiflyer]

Recon is up. NOAA42 out of Lakeland crossing coast into Gulf

[GCANE]

I don't see any dry-air entrainment.
In fact there seems to be a moderate feeder band coming from the W Carib.
Core is in 3000 CAPE with increasing helicity.
If the cold pool is still intact, could see one more large convective burst before landfall.
Hopefully, it won't catch everyone off guard.

https://i.imgur.com/A25uaq7.png

https://i.imgur.com/bAWzCZk.gif

https://i.imgur.com/I3cYupx.gif

I think it will catch people off guard. There wasn't the typical buildup from the media with the large east shifts happening recently. Further, no one thought it could possibly hit Cat. 1. There has been zero storm preparedness here in Clearwater area- Tampa Bay area. I track these things and I'm going to have to scramble now as my preparedness stuff has dwindled being so late in the season

Stay safe

[Jr0d]

8 miles off of Key West at Sand Key Lighthouse, tropical storm conditions reported, 37kts gust to 45kts.

A wind advisory is in effect for Key West and Gale Warning from the 7 mile bridge westward.

Too late for a tropical storm warning I suppose.

[caneman]

I don't see any dry-air entrainment.
In fact there seems to be a moderate feeder band coming from the W Carib.
Core is in 3000 CAPE with increasing helicity.
If the cold pool is still intact, could see one more large convective burst before landfall.
Hopefully, it won't catch everyone off guard.

https://i.imgur.com/A25uaq7.png

https://i.imgur.com/bAWzCZk.gif

https://i.imgur.com/I3cYupx.gif

I think it will catch people off guard. There wasn't the typical buildup from the media with the large east shifts happening recently. Further, no one thought it could possibly hit Cat. 1. There has been zero storm preparedness here in Clearwater area- Tampa Bay area. I track these things and I'm going to have to scramble now as my preparedness stuff has dwindled being so late in the season

Stay safe

Thanks man. Frances, Jeanna, Irma all knocked out power near the beach here for several days at a time. 50, 60 mph is all it takes

[GCANE]

Looks like a PV Streamer has strengthened over this accounting for the drop off in convection and the collapse of the eye.
It is always difficult to forecast what a PVS will do.
Hopefully it'll keep Eta at bay.
If it weakens, it'll likely allow Eta to reintensify.
Stay tuned.

[GCANE]

Closest buoy

[sponger]

It sure covered one hell of a lot of East movement for a North moving storm. I think it reached hurricane strength briefly at 4 am. Lets see if it regains it. Regardless, Cape Coral must be wondering what the hell happened.

[caneman]

It sure covered one hell of a lot of East movement for a North moving storm. I think it reached hurricane strength briefly at 4 am. Lets see if it regains it.

Reminds me of Gabrielle which hit as a 70 mph in 2001. Right around 9/11. Mnay think they missed it briefly becoming a hurricane. Wonder if this will be same

[dizzyfish]

Good Morning from NPR/Hudson on the west coast of sunny Florida. This is NOT what I wanted to see this morning but here we are. I, fortunately, am off today as I work in the school system down in Tampa and we are off for Veterans Day. Lots to do this morning.

I personally don't see ETA landfalling much further north than Hernando. Maybe not even that far - hope it dies before it does. I imagine they will close schools in all coastal counties for tomorrow. Hope my husband's employer does as well.

I am hoping and praying that folks won't be caught off guard but I know they will.

Be safe all!

[SouthernBreeze]

Gosh, now NHC shows it exiting out into Atlantic from northeast FL coast!

[GCANE]

Kermit at 850mb
FL winds so far, 69 knts max