ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

That's more like it! A closed off eye coming right at you is not a good feeling

[GCANE]

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (80.6mph)

[Hurricaneman]

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (80.6mph)

This is a hurricane based on that, could be a rather potent landfall near Sarasota

[BobHarlem]

Man Satellite went from amazing to garbage in about an hour.

[wxman57]

Looks like Eta's core has been disrupted by a combination of shear and dry air already. Squalls near the core are gone, and it looks like there's a mid-level center NE of the LLC. Definitely starting to weaken. Recon indicates 50-55 kts. May not be much near the center when it reaches Florida but a swirl of low clouds. All weather will be well to the east.

[NDG]

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (80.6mph)

That was flight level winds, not SFMR winds.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like mostly dry air entrainment, suddenly went from a strengthening hurricane to half an eye on the east side like it’s transitioning to a subtropical cyclone

[GCANE]

Can clearly see the PVS rotating from NE to SW over this.
Extrapolating this would indicate that it'll clear out around 10AM EST.
Watching then if this refires.

[psyclone]

Looks like mostly dry air entrainment, suddenly went from a strengthening hurricane to half an eye on the east side like it’s transitioning to a subtropical cyclone

That's what we expect, need and want

[Nimbus]

The radar squall band speed vectors are quite long but so far power in the Sarasota and Bradenton communities south of Tampa bay are at 99.98 percent good. Perhaps the high winds aren't mixing to the surface in those first outer bands. Both buoys 42023 and 42026 which were in the eyewall saw gusts to 55 knots so hopefully the weakening trend continues this morning.

[SconnieCane]

Looks like Eta's core has been disrupted by a combination of shear and dry air already. Squalls near the core are gone, and it looks like there's a mid-level center NE of the LLC. Definitely starting to weaken. Recon indicates 50-55 kts. May not be much near the center when it reaches Florida but a swirl of low clouds. All weather will be well to the east.

I've noticed you almost always only chime in when storms are weakening or you can find some reason to play down their potential strength/impacts. Why is that?

[GCANE]

This is a good illustration of the UL Divergent Jet.
Worried about the circled area.
LL convergence from the land, strong mid-level vort, and UL Divergent Jet.
One heck of a vertical twist.
Could see some stronger than typically expected tornadoes here.

[wx98]

This is one of the biggest overnight track changes I can remember in a while. Last I checked it was eyeing the western panhandle this weekend and fizzling on approach. Now it is nearly a hurricane and heading toward Tampa or just north. And recon is finding >80 kt FL winds well east of the center.

[Aric Dunn]

121330 2548N 08236W 8417 01537 0037 +175 +173 187064 066 049 000 00
121400 2550N 08235W 8422 01531 0038 +176 +170 184066 068 048 001 00
121430 2553N 08234W 8417 01537 0039 +175 +175 173072 074 048 002 00
121500 2555N 08234W 8427 01527 0033 +177 //// 167072 074 047 005 01
121530 2557N 08233W 8418 01524 0026 +176 //// 171076 080 052 005 01

little convection return and it will be a hurricane.

[NDG]

This is one of the biggest overnight track changes I can remember in a while. Last I checked it was eyeing the western panhandle this weekend and fizzling on approach. Now it is nearly a hurricane and heading toward Tampa or just north. And recon is finding >80 kt FL winds well east of the center.

But no deep convection to bring down those winds down to the surface as indicated by the SFMR of only near 50-53 knots.

URNT15 KWBC 111226
NOAA2 1929A ETA HDOB 15 20201111
121630 2602N 08231W 8411 01535 0026 +173 //// 169079 082 050 002 01
121700 2604N 08230W 8418 01524 0026 +174 //// 172082 084 048 002 01
121730 2607N 08229W 8417 01528 0025 +181 +178 167075 077 048 001 00
121800 2609N 08228W 8430 01523 0029 +182 +169 161074 075 047 002 00
121830 2611N 08227W 8432 01524 0032 +185 +163 158069 071 050 003 00
121900 2613N 08226W 8433 01518 0043 +174 +171 158070 076 047 012 00
121930 2615N 08224W 8415 01549 0054 +161 //// 159074 076 050 006 01
122000 2617N 08223W 8417 01541 0049 +166 //// 161067 070 048 009 01

[GCANE]

Some moderate convection coming back into the core.

[wxman57]

Looks like Eta's core has been disrupted by a combination of shear and dry air already. Squalls near the core are gone, and it looks like there's a mid-level center NE of the LLC. Definitely starting to weaken. Recon indicates 50-55 kts. May not be much near the center when it reaches Florida but a swirl of low clouds. All weather will be well to the east.

I've noticed you almost always only chime in when storms are weakening or you can find some reason to play down their potential strength/impacts. Why is that?

Because it's true? By the time the center reaches Florida there won't be much moving ashore but a swirl of clouds. All the significant rain may be east of Florida by the time the center reaches the coast around this time tomorrow. The impacts will be during the day today, not tomorrow at landfall. There will be tropical storm-force winds along the west coast of Florida today. Key West has been reporting TS winds for hours. No hurricane, though.

[Aric Dunn]

This is one of the biggest overnight track changes I can remember in a while. Last I checked it was eyeing the western panhandle this weekend and fizzling on approach. Now it is nearly a hurricane and heading toward Tampa or just north. And recon is finding >80 kt FL winds well east of the center.

But no deep convection to bring down those winds down to the surface as indicated by the SFMR of only near 50-53 knots.

URNT15 KWBC 111226
NOAA2 1929A ETA HDOB 15 20201111
121630 2602N 08231W 8411 01535 0026 +173 //// 169079 082 050 002 01
121700 2604N 08230W 8418 01524 0026 +174 //// 172082 084 048 002 01
121730 2607N 08229W 8417 01528 0025 +181 +178 167075 077 048 001 00
121800 2609N 08228W 8430 01523 0029 +182 +169 161074 075 047 002 00
121830 2611N 08227W 8432 01524 0032 +185 +163 158069 071 050 003 00
121900 2613N 08226W 8433 01518 0043 +174 +171 158070 076 047 012 00
121930 2615N 08224W 8415 01549 0054 +161 //// 159074 076 050 006 01
122000 2617N 08223W 8417 01541 0049 +166 //// 161067 070 048 009 01

Moisture surge coming in. we could see convection return over the next 12 hours.

[Sanibel]

Gusting so hard it woke me up...

Gusts and rain...

[gatorcane]

Hurricane watch for Tampa? When was the last time you saw that? Florida shield Including the Tampa forcefield breaking down on all fronts with ETA.