ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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beachnut
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4301 Postby beachnut » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:21 am

Tornado watches just hoisted, seems reasonable. Small F0-F1's can spin up a wreak havoc. Saw one during Irma turn a pool cage into a pretzel. Be smart and be safe!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4302 Postby underthwx » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:21 am

wxman57 wrote:Stewart upgraded Eta to a hurricane. Core is gone, starting to spin down as dry air is entrained. I was going to indicate weakening in my advisory.

ETA doesn't look too well, I am just now checking in on ETA this morning, is it still a Hurricane Xman?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4303 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:23 am

NOAA recon, only one pass? What happened? Did they run out of their annual budget already?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4304 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:29 am

Right now Eta is a storm of extremes. The convective pattern is pretty terrible, with convection warmer than even subtropical storm theta, and practically no deep core convection. However the outflow pattern is excellent, with banding set up to the south and north extending from the NW Caribbean to the Atlantic. I think convection might continue to warm, but the storm may even continue to intensify as the outflow pattern continues to expand.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4305 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:31 am

NDG wrote:NOAA recon, only one pass? What happened? Did they run out of their annual budget already?

I hope they didn’t, because recon-demanding Iota is on the horizon.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4306 Postby sittingduck » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:32 am

Good morning from Venice. Getting a bit gusty in the last 30 minutes or so. Raining all night.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4307 Postby GCANE » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:36 am

lando wrote:
GCANE wrote:Just as expected. The PVS has crossed over the CoC from the NE and is now SW of the last Recon Fix.
Continuing to move away.
Refire likely in the next couple hours.

https://i.imgur.com/LaLiaHr.png

What is a Pv streamer


A small upper-level cyclonic flow.
Can be circular or elongated.
Pushes down dry air from the upper atmosphere.
It interferes with the low-level vort column, typically tilting it.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4308 Postby dizzyfish » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:40 am

GCANE wrote:Mesovort, right there

https://i.imgur.com/z3zm4RC.png



How can you tell that is a mesovort from that screenshot you posted? Mesovorts intrigue me and I believe to have been witness to more than one over the years.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4309 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:41 am

Amazing to see that well defined eye on radar overnight, and how quickly the dry air took down the convective core. You can see the massive area of dry air to the West has closed in. There is still moist air to work with over FL. Does Eta have one more convective blowup in her before FL landfall? The latest HRRR model shows several convective pulses that blow up and die off repeatedly before the center crosses the coast tomorrow morning, so there will probably be enough convection at times to mix down the stronger winds periodically.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4310 Postby GCANE » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:54 am

dizzyfish wrote:
GCANE wrote:Mesovort, right there

https://i.imgur.com/z3zm4RC.png



How can you tell that is a mesovort from that screenshot you posted? Mesovorts intrigue me and I believe to have been witness to more than one over the years.


The loop showed it making a cyclonic trajectory
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4311 Postby jconsor » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:55 am

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4312 Postby tolakram » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:56 am

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4313 Postby chris_fit » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:56 am

Ugly (fortunately) looking hurricane. Rainy and juts breezy here in Parrish (just south of Tampa)

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4314 Postby GCANE » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:56 am

GCANE wrote:
dizzyfish wrote:
GCANE wrote:Mesovort, right there

https://i.imgur.com/z3zm4RC.png



How can you tell that is a mesovort from that screenshot you posted? Mesovorts intrigue me and I believe to have been witness to more than one over the years.


The loop showed it making a cyclonic trajectory


Here's the link
Band 12: IR-Ozone shows the flow nicely.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/m ... &length=30
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4315 Postby dizzyfish » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:07 am

Thank you GCANE!

So..... what is Eta's ETA on the coast?

I'm sorry I just had to do that! I can't help but see ETA (earliest time of arrival) in my head every single time the storm name is mentioned. LOL

Calm here now and just a drizzle. First time the wind has been calm for days.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4316 Postby Nimbus » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:17 am

tolakram wrote:I'm not so sure it's coming back, the LLC seems to be drifting southwest.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html


I suppose it could restack itself some if there really is a new influx of moisture.
Wasn't the "dry" southwest shear supposed to stay with the system till landfall?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4317 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:20 am

This doesn't really look like a hurricane to me. I bet it gets downgraded soon. But a cat 1 is a cat 1 even if it is only for a couple hours lol
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4318 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:28 am

It's not dry air that is weakening Eta. . .


EDIT: That water Vapor imagery is outdated!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4319 Postby crimi481 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:30 am

In Englewood - enjoying the weather. My kind of storm - still have power.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4320 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:45 am

Core is gone, due to a combination of wind shear and dry air. I don't think it's coming back. It appears Stewart (NHC) used a FL to surface wind conversion that only applies to strong squalls in the eyewall of a hurricane (paper by James Franklin of the NHC). Recon data did not measure any surface wind much above 50 kts. There are two buoys that went through Eta's strongest squalls this morning. Neither reported above 35=40 kt winds. Could be a small pocket of 45-50 kt winds now, but that's questionable. Lacking strong convection near the core, strong FL winds aloft will not make it to the surface. Don't focus on the center in Florida. Worst conditions on the west coast will occur VERY shortly. Probably sustained wind 35-40 mph with higher gusts. By the time the center makes landfall (before sunrise tomorrow), all of Eta's squalls will likely be east of Florida. There won't be much associated with Eta's center, as there isn't now.
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