ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Tornado watches just hoisted, seems reasonable. Small F0-F1's can spin up a wreak havoc. Saw one during Irma turn a pool cage into a pretzel. Be smart and be safe!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Stewart upgraded Eta to a hurricane. Core is gone, starting to spin down as dry air is entrained. I was going to indicate weakening in my advisory.
ETA doesn't look too well, I am just now checking in on ETA this morning, is it still a Hurricane Xman?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
NOAA recon, only one pass? What happened? Did they run out of their annual budget already?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Right now Eta is a storm of extremes. The convective pattern is pretty terrible, with convection warmer than even subtropical storm theta, and practically no deep core convection. However the outflow pattern is excellent, with banding set up to the south and north extending from the NW Caribbean to the Atlantic. I think convection might continue to warm, but the storm may even continue to intensify as the outflow pattern continues to expand.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
NDG wrote:NOAA recon, only one pass? What happened? Did they run out of their annual budget already?
I hope they didn’t, because recon-demanding Iota is on the horizon.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- sittingduck
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Good morning from Venice. Getting a bit gusty in the last 30 minutes or so. Raining all night.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
lando wrote:GCANE wrote:Just as expected. The PVS has crossed over the CoC from the NE and is now SW of the last Recon Fix.
Continuing to move away.
Refire likely in the next couple hours.
https://i.imgur.com/LaLiaHr.png
What is a Pv streamer
A small upper-level cyclonic flow.
Can be circular or elongated.
Pushes down dry air from the upper atmosphere.
It interferes with the low-level vort column, typically tilting it.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
How can you tell that is a mesovort from that screenshot you posted? Mesovorts intrigue me and I believe to have been witness to more than one over the years.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Amazing to see that well defined eye on radar overnight, and how quickly the dry air took down the convective core. You can see the massive area of dry air to the West has closed in. There is still moist air to work with over FL. Does Eta have one more convective blowup in her before FL landfall? The latest HRRR model shows several convective pulses that blow up and die off repeatedly before the center crosses the coast tomorrow morning, so there will probably be enough convection at times to mix down the stronger winds periodically.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
dizzyfish wrote:
How can you tell that is a mesovort from that screenshot you posted? Mesovorts intrigue me and I believe to have been witness to more than one over the years.
The loop showed it making a cyclonic trajectory
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
I'm not so sure it's coming back, the LLC seems to be drifting southwest.
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html
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M a r k
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Ugly (fortunately) looking hurricane. Rainy and juts breezy here in Parrish (just south of Tampa)


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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:dizzyfish wrote:
How can you tell that is a mesovort from that screenshot you posted? Mesovorts intrigue me and I believe to have been witness to more than one over the years.
The loop showed it making a cyclonic trajectory
Here's the link
Band 12: IR-Ozone shows the flow nicely.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/m ... &length=30
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Thank you GCANE!
So..... what is Eta's ETA on the coast?
I'm sorry I just had to do that! I can't help but see ETA (earliest time of arrival) in my head every single time the storm name is mentioned. LOL
Calm here now and just a drizzle. First time the wind has been calm for days.
So..... what is Eta's ETA on the coast?
I'm sorry I just had to do that! I can't help but see ETA (earliest time of arrival) in my head every single time the storm name is mentioned. LOL
Calm here now and just a drizzle. First time the wind has been calm for days.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
tolakram wrote:I'm not so sure it's coming back, the LLC seems to be drifting southwest.
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html
I suppose it could restack itself some if there really is a new influx of moisture.
Wasn't the "dry" southwest shear supposed to stay with the system till landfall?
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
This doesn't really look like a hurricane to me. I bet it gets downgraded soon. But a cat 1 is a cat 1 even if it is only for a couple hours lol
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
It's not dry air that is weakening Eta. . .
EDIT: That water Vapor imagery is outdated!
EDIT: That water Vapor imagery is outdated!
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Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
In Englewood - enjoying the weather. My kind of storm - still have power.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Core is gone, due to a combination of wind shear and dry air. I don't think it's coming back. It appears Stewart (NHC) used a FL to surface wind conversion that only applies to strong squalls in the eyewall of a hurricane (paper by James Franklin of the NHC). Recon data did not measure any surface wind much above 50 kts. There are two buoys that went through Eta's strongest squalls this morning. Neither reported above 35=40 kt winds. Could be a small pocket of 45-50 kt winds now, but that's questionable. Lacking strong convection near the core, strong FL winds aloft will not make it to the surface. Don't focus on the center in Florida. Worst conditions on the west coast will occur VERY shortly. Probably sustained wind 35-40 mph with higher gusts. By the time the center makes landfall (before sunrise tomorrow), all of Eta's squalls will likely be east of Florida. There won't be much associated with Eta's center, as there isn't now.
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