kevin wrote:Wow, MPI in the Caribbean is insanely high at the moment, even better than it was during Delta or Eta if I recall correctly. Whatever happens to 98L, it's not gonna be the MPI that will limit this system.
https://i.imgur.com/ExxppBz.png
I thought Eta was 2020’s last hurrah. I guess that might be Iota...unless another Caribbean monster is in store for the end of the month. Imagine a Caribbean major that lasts into December.
With the exception of the CMC, which is the fastest model (landfall in 120 hours), all of the globals have a landfall at 144 hours or later, and development within 3 days. That’ll be anywhere from 2 to 4 days for Iota to build a core and intensify, and if SSTs/MPIs are really going to be that high, we could be looking at another Eta — a high end Cat 4 or a Cat 5 with insanely deep convection due to the cool tropopause. Praying that recon won’t be problematic this time.