WPAC: VAMCO - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

STS 2022 (Vamco)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 11 November 2020

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 11 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°30' (15.5°)
E120°30' (120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 500 km (270 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Ships report - SW of Vigan, Ilocos Sur

[mrbagyo]

25W VAMCO 201112 0000 15.2N 119.6E WPAC 80 974

[dexterlabio]

This is like Xangxane (2006) and Ketsana (2009) rolled into 1 nasty storm here in Manila.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/PhilippineStar/status/1326725703551733760



 https://twitter.com/gmanews/status/1326703042712928256



 https://twitter.com/gmanews/status/1326787102890217473

[Ed_2001]

Getting its act together in the SCS despite relatively cool SST’s. 75knots per JTWC and 60kts per JMA but the latter of which seems to always underestimate SCS systems,

I’m surprised that no one bothered to post here in 27 hours. I know Storm2k is Atlantic centric but still.

[Hayabusa]

It's back to typhoon again on JMA

TY 2022 (Vamco)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 13 November 2020

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 13 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°30' (15.5°)
E114°00' (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 85 km (45 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 390 km (210 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

[Hayabusa]

New peak, cat 3?

2020NOV13 071000 5.5 956.0 102.0 5.5 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 7.03 -66.43 EYE 18 IR 7.2 15.59 -114.15 ARCHER HIM-8 35.5
2020NOV13 074000 5.6 953.8 104.6 5.6 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 7.89 -67.49 EYE 16 IR 7.2 15.54 -114.07 ARCHER HIM-8 35.5
2020NOV13 080000 5.6 953.8 104.6 5.6 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.69 -68.21 EYE 26 IR 7.2 15.52 -114.02 ARCHER HIM-8 35.6
2020NOV13 084000 5.7 951.7 107.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 2.52 -65.56 EYE -99 IR 7.2 15.46 -114.21 ARCHER HIM-8 35.4
2020NOV13 091000 5.8 949.3 109.8 5.8 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.15 -72.09 EYE 22 IR 7.2 15.65 -113.82 ARCHER HIM-8 35.8

[Ed_2001]

Pretty remarkable that Vamco is getting so much better organized in an region of minimal OHC.

[Hayabusa]

It's now a cat 4 if ADT is to believe

2020NOV13 094000 6.0 944.8 115.0 6.0 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 6.25 -72.29 EYE 20 IR 43.2 15.64 -113.76 ARCHER HIM-8 35.9
2020NOV13 101000 6.1 942.6 117.4 6.1 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.35 -72.29 EYE 19 IR 43.2 15.63 -113.61 ARCHER HIM-8 36.0

[Hayabusa]

12Z JMA T5.0 again

[1900hurricane]

One of the better recoveries from a TC crossing Luzon.

[Hayabusa]

Ohhh

TPPN12 PGTW 131218

A. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO)

B. 13/1140Z

C. 15.50N

D. 113.41E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO PT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS
OF FT CHANGE OF 0.5 OVER 6 HRS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ELIAS

[Hayabusa]

TY 2022 (Vamco)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 13 November 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 13 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°30' (15.5°)
E113°25' (113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 390 km (210 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

25W VAMCO 201113 1200 15.5N 113.4E WPAC 100 961

[tatlopuyo]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 937.2mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.8 6.8

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

2020NOV13 143000 6.6 932.6 129.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.26 -73.76 EYE 27 IR 41.4 15.66 -112.83 ARCHER HIM-8 36.8

double digit positive eye temperature

[doomhaMwx]

WDPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM EAST OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE AN UNEXPECTED PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND WRAPPING INTO A VERY WELL DEFINED, THOUGH SOMEWHAT RAGGED, 20NM WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED EYE IN THE EIR, SUPPORTED BY A 131216Z ASCAT-A BULLSEYE PASS. WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM KNES, THOUGH SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T6.3, AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 110 KNOTS. TY VAMCO IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER WATERS AT OR JUST ABOVE 27 DEG CELSIUS, BUT WITH VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN HAS HOWEVER CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BUT VERY POTENT POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS LED TO A ROBUST DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW PATTERN, DRAMATICALLY INCREASING THE EXHAUST MECHANISM AND ENABLING THE WITNESSED RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED THROUGH LANDFALL.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM (0-12 HOURS) INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHICH IS NOT CAPTURED BY THE FORECAST POINTS, AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM (26-27 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ROBUST DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEGINS TO BE IMPINGED, AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER STEADILY COOLER WATERS. CURRENT SST MEASUREMENTS INDICATE SSTS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 26 DEG CELSIUS WEST OF THE 110 DEG LONGITUDE. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEST OF THIS POINT AND OVER COOL (25 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS WHICH ARE NON-CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR VERY NEAR LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF VIETNAM. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM AND INTO LAOS IT WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 OVER LAOS. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, WITH 145NM SPREAD AT LANDFALL AND ALL BUT NAVGEM AND UKMET ENSEMBLE BEING VERY TIGHTLY PACKED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST NORTH AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS TRACKER WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/14/20/ ... t-official

MANILA - Cagayan province became like a vast ocean after the province was swamped with floodwaters due to rainfall brought by Typhoon Ulysses and the northeastern monsoon, a disaster management official said Friday.

 https://twitter.com/ABSCBNNews/status/1327271149059784704

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/inquirerdotnet/status/1327309475057811456