ATL: IOTA - Models

[LarryWx]

Here's the 12Z UKMET 144, which is similar to the Euro, ICON, and other models at H5 over N Amer. This implies that after the UKMET's WNW motion from hour 120 to hour 144 that it would probably have subsequently turned W or WSW once the trough to its north passed by had the model gone out further:

[SouthFLTropics]

That UKMET is crazy for November. We can't even come close to getting a decent cold front down here into South Florida. However, with everything spinning up in the Caribbean, that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Although I would love some cooler temps and lower humidity.

[SFLcane]

Eps trended north a bit today with one ensemble into SFL around turkey day.

[aspen]

18z GFS is another compact Hurricane Iota into Central America.

[LarryWx]

18z GFS is another compact Hurricane Iota into Central America.

18z GFS days 8-14 rainfall; this is actually from 2 different SW Car lows:

[aspen]

00z is faster and further north. Iota is well in the Gulf of Honduras as it starts it S turn by 150 hours.

[kevin]

00z GFS-Para . Pretty much as strong as Eta was at landfall and in almost the exact same location.

[kevin]

Also it looks like GFS is now all in on a significant storm developing. I can't remember having seen such a strong orange blob with Eta or Delta in the ensemble.

[Kazmit]

GFS is suggesting an Eta 2.0 (but without the weird track after the first landfall).

[kevin]

The 06z GFS ensemble is trending a bit further north and is basically a hurricane front descending on CA and Yucatan . Average TD formation already seems to start around 30 - 48 hours so we could already be tracking a TD on Friday.

[kevin]

Strongest ICON run to date, 952 mbar. The last long range ICON run at 00z peaked at 981 mbar and yesterday's 12z peaked at 964 mbar. ICON also shifts slightly north during the last few runs and is trending more towards a Honduras landfall instead of a Nicaragua landfall. But still a lot of time to change of course.

[aspen]

HUGE north shift in the 12z Euro run. Instead of a Nicaragua/Costa Rica landfall, Iota scrapes the very northern coast of Honduras at 120-144 hours.

[jlauderdal]

HUGE north shift in the 12z Euro run. Instead of a Nicaragua/Costa Rica landfall, Iota scrapes the very northern coast of Honduras at 120-144 hours.

ETA was doing similar stuff

[Spacecoast]

Deja Vu all over again...EDIT: replaced 12z spaghetti with 18z.

[aspen]

18z GFS has a much quicker genesis, with a classifiable TD between 36-54 hours out. Most of the earlier runs didn’t have one until the 72-96 hr range. This might be one of those crazy intense Happy Hour runs...

[aspen]

Cat 2/3 hurricane about to make landfall in Honduras on Tuesday. Like the ICON and Euro, the 18z GFS has shifted north of the Nicaragua/Honduras "bump". By midday tomorrow we should know if this is a longer-lasting trend or just a temporary shift before the models go back to a southern solution.

[aspen]

18z GFS ensembles. Excellent support for development, and there are a ton of strong members getting north of CA.

[SouthFLTropics]

Make it stop already!!! We've had enough of this season!!!

No disrespect to any of the regular members on here... I always look forward to seeing everyone at the start of each season, but at this point I'm ready to not see any of you until June 2021.

[Wampadawg]

18z GFS ensembles. Excellent support for development, and there are a ton of strong members getting north of CA.
https://i.imgur.com/Ggx2wpJ.png

oy vey

[aspen]

00z ICON continues the trend of stronger and stronger runs. Iota gets stuck at 80W starting around 126-138 hours out, and as it sits atop high OHC and 29C SSTs, it bombs out to the mid 940s. This is one of the deepest ICON solutions I have ever seen.