Around 970 MB at peak for 98L
Weakens as it skims Honduras
ATL: IOTA - Models
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Iceresistance wrote:
Also note CLP5 doing the same thing, but farther north
CLP5 is not a "real" model, it is climate and persistence. i.e. Where storms in this location historically go. Ignore it. Its use is to see how the bad real models are.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
xironman wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
Also note CLP5 doing the same thing, but farther north
CLP5 is not a "real" model, it is climate and persistence. i.e. Where storms in this location historically go. Ignore it. Its use is to see how the bad real models are.
I thought CLP5 was a real model.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
supercane4867 wrote:18z GFS taking a Mitch track
Closer to Iris 2002
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The HMON 'Hurricane' model run has started, I'll update as it updates.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
It’s not heading north with that 2020 semi-permanent ridge building. If it as the HWRF suggest, it would probably be sheared apart.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Seems like the HWRF and HMON are showing competing parts of the disturbance within the next day or so before one takes over.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HMON having a multi-circulation start, then takes off.
+48 hours
50 knots & 995 MB
Hurricane at +63 hours
64 knots & 983 MB
+48 hours
50 knots & 995 MB
Hurricane at +63 hours
64 knots & 983 MB
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Large eye apparent from the HMON model
Major at +81 hours
100 knots & 965.5 MB
HWRF struggling with 98L because of wind shear
Major at +81 hours
100 knots & 965.5 MB
HWRF struggling with 98L because of wind shear
Last edited by Iceresistance on Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Did HWRF have a bad initialization or something like that? It went from showing a cat 4 all day to showing nothing now. Considering the overwhelming model support for storm formation I'm gonna assume it's a fluke for now, but it is a weird development. Will be interesting to see what 00z does.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HWRF is taking longer than the previous runs and the HMON for one of the circulations to become dominant. Looks like one finally wins out by Saturday night.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
aspen wrote:HWRF is taking longer than the previous runs and the HMON for one of the circulations to become dominant. Looks like one finally wins out by Saturday night.
Up to 50 knots of mid-level wind shear
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Iceresistance wrote:aspen wrote:HWRF is taking longer than the previous runs and the HMON for one of the circulations to become dominant. Looks like one finally wins out by Saturday night.
Up to 50 knots of mid-level wind shear
Why is there suddenly so much shear?
Even with this weaker run (at least during the first 3 days), the north end of the storm still wins out. The 18z intensity guidance on Tropical Tidbits shows that the HWRF has a borderline Cat 4 and the HMON has a 145 kt Cat 5, both by Day 5.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
aspen wrote:Iceresistance wrote:aspen wrote:HWRF is taking longer than the previous runs and the HMON for one of the circulations to become dominant. Looks like one finally wins out by Saturday night.
Up to 50 knots of mid-level wind shear
Why is there suddenly so much shear?
Even with this weaker run (at least during the first 3 days), the north end of the storm still wins out. The 18z intensity guidance on Tropical Tidbits shows that the HWRF has a borderline Cat 4 and the HMON has a 145 kt Cat 5, both by Day 5.
HWRF is now thinking of strong wind shear over the system, the ridge near the jet stream is the main reason why.
EDIT: I spoke too soon, the shear at +81 hours just dies, allowing the system to become a hurricane at +87 hours
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
I was beginning to wonder on what is with HMON until this:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
I spoke way too soon 
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Iceresistance wrote:I was beginning to wonder on what is with HMON until this:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020111218/hmon_mslp_wind_98L_37.png
It has a successful EWRC on Monday that leads to another phase of RI. This run also sees the center jumping around and winning out the north side, becoming a nicely stacked TC by Saturday afternoon and a hurricane less than 24 hours later. The HWRF takes about a day or so longer to get Iota’s center completely sorted out; maybe this is just a bad run.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HWRF much more reasonable to me. Especially with the shear. It'll be interesting to see what it peaks at. It could also be a fluke run though. We'll see at 0z
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Sub 930
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Winter 2020-2021
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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