ATL: IOTA - Models

[us89]

HMON has this weakening before landfall & slowing down, but why?

Eyewall replacement, probably. Check out the huge outer eyewall at hour 114:

[caneseddy]

HMON wants to recreate Hurricane Hattie for Belize it seems like

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF has it moving slower at hour 105 than HMON

[Iceresistance]

HMON has this weakening before landfall & slowing down, but why?

Eyewall replacement, probably. Check out the huge outer eyewall at hour 114:

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/775787876914036789/776685234489655306/hmon_ref_98L_38.png?width=976&height=936

I see now, the HMON is saying that the EWRC could last a long while, up to the end of the run:

Wind speed:

Radar:

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF doesn't get to the high end Cat 4/5 the HMON has but it still has a powerful Cat 4 at 942mb. Basically it looks like if the storm misses Honduras to the N it could explode.

[Iceresistance]

HWRF doesn't get to the high end Cat 4/5 the HMON has but it still has a powerful Cat 4 at 942mb. Basically it looks like if the storm misses Honduras to the N it could explode.

REALLY, explode

Only a EWRC will inhibit this

[kevin]

We'll have to see what happens with Iota, but I have a bad feeling about this one. The global ensembles might be further south than HWRF & HMON, but they also clearly show that the strongest members are the most northern solutions. And considering how well HWRF has done this season and how favorable the Caribbean is, I'm leaning towards those stronger solutions and thus I think a track north of Honduras like HWRF/HMON keep showing is more realistic than you'd think based on the globals. That would be good news for Honduras, but would allow the storm to become even stronger. If that happens, I can't think of anything (besides an EWRC) that could stop this theoretical monster.

[Iceresistance]

We'll have to see what happens with Iota, but I have a bad feeling about this one. The global ensembles might be further south than HWRF & HMON, but they also clearly show that the strongest members are the most northern solutions. And considering how well HWRF has done this season and how favorable the Caribbean is, I'm leaning towards those stronger solutions and thus I think a track north of Honduras like HWRF/HMON keep showing is more realistic than you'd think based on the globals. That would be good news for Honduras, but would allow the storm to become even stronger. If that happens, I can't think of anything (besides an EWRC) that could stop this theoretical monster.

Wind shear is going to be very low, dry air is nonexistant, & the SSTs are around 27-30C.
This thing has a opportunity!

[Iceresistance]

The Midnight GFS Hurricane model run has stopped working, but the normal model is fine.

[kevin]

06z ICON still landfalls in Honduras but only barely with 975 mbar. It's further north compared to 00z (which was further north than 18z).

[kevin]

06z GFS landfalls in northern Honduras, 965 mbar at 90 hours.

[kevin]

Since I have nothing else to do atm, here's the HMON/HWRF 06z post, which I'll update as the model results become known. I also added the 00z run so we can compare how much weaker/stronger it gets this time. I also placed markers when the storm reaches a certain strength and I only applied it when 2 subsequent points show high enough winds so 1 frame with 34+ kt winds isn't enough to get a TS upgrade. Both HMON and HWRF take a bit longer to get going this run, but HMON peaks at 926 mbar this run which is virtually the same as the previous run (925 mbar). Similar story for HWRF which peaks at 943 mbar in this run compared to 944 mbar in the 00z run. Important to note that both HWRF and HMON go north of Honduras by quite a big margin. HMON is roughly the same in terms of latitude, but HWRF is even further north this time, roughly half a degree further north during most of the run. HWRF is also a bit faster this time. The most important thing to see is that it takes both HWRF and HMON 66 - 72 hours before the system is able to consolidate into a hurricane. This is an important time frame to keep in mind and a way to check whether we're 'on track' with the HWRF/HMON runs.

HWRF
time / mslp (mbar) / wind (kts) / mslp 00z run
00 / 1006 / 25 / 1008
03 / 1008 / 24 / 1006
06 / 1009 / 32 / 1007
09 / 1009 / 43 / 1009
12 / 1008 / 30 / 1007
15 / 1007 / 38 / 1005 <- TS
18 / 1006 / 37 / 1004
21 / 1007 / 40 / 1002
24 / 1007 / 39 / 1000
27 / 1002 / 38 / 998
30 / 1004 / 42 / 998
33 / 1004 / 42 / 997
36 / 1003 / 40 / 996
39 / 1002 / 41 / 995
42 / 998 / 48 / 993
45 / 1000 / 48 / 992
48 / 996 / 53 / 987
51 / 994 / 53 / 984
54 / 993 / 52 / 985
57 / 993 / 60 / 983
60 / 988 / 61 / 978
63 / 984 / 64 / 973
66 / 980 / 69 / 970 <- cat 1
69 / 981 / 68 / 972
72 / 979 / 64 / 971
75 / 974 / 80 / 966
78 / 969 / 84 / 964 <- cat 2
81 / 967 / 90 / 958
84 / 962 / 84 / 949
87 / 958 / 96 / 949 <- cat 3
90 / 957 / 89 / 949
93 / 955 / 97 / 947
96 / 953 / 97 / 944
99 / 949 / 105 / 943
102 / 949 / 104 / 942
105 / 948 / 110 / 944
108 / 946 / 107 / 943
111 / 943 / 104 / 942
114 / 944 / 109 / 942
117 / 945 / 118 / 944 <- cat 4
120 / 946 / 115 / 944
123 / 948 / 110 / ---
126 / 951 / 107 / ---

HMON
time / mslp (mbar) / wind (kts) / mslp 00z run
00 / 1009 / 23 / 1007
03 / 1006 / 29 / 1007
06 / 1008 / 31 / 1007
09 / 1008 / 35 / 1009
12 / 1007 / 33 / 1007
15 / 1005 / 33 / 1006
18 / 1007 / 34 / 1007 <- TS
21 / 1007 / 35 / 1007
24 / 1005 / 33 / 1005
27 / 1004 / 32 / 1001
30 / 1005 / 35 / 1002
33 / 1005 / 36 / 1002
36 / 1001 / 38 / 998
39 / 1000 / 43 / 995
42 / 1000 / 37 / 994
45 / 999 / 44 / 993
48 / 994 / 46 / 989
51 / 992 / 47 / 986
54 / 990 / 51 / 986
57 / 990 / 59 / 984
60 / 984 / 59 / 981
63 / 983 / 57 / 978
66 / 981 / 59 / 974
69 / 979 / 64 / 968
72 / 976 / 69 / 966 <- cat 1
75 / 972 / 76 / 962
78 / 967 / 78 / 962
81 / 965 / 91 / 962 <- cat 2
84 / 961 / 96 / 960 <- cat 3
87 / 957 / 90 / 954
90 / 954 / 99 / 946
93 / 949 / 100 / 938
96 / 945 / 104 / 931
99 / 941 / 100 / 927
102 / 937 / 101 / 926
105 / 934 / 112 / 925
108 / 929 / 116 / 928 <- cat 4
111 / 926 / 107 / 930
114 / 927 / 110 / 933
117 / 929 / 101 / 936
120 / 931 / 99 / 939
123 / 935 / 101 / ---
126 / 937 / 107 / ---

[kevin]

EWRC starting around 90 - 96 hours in the 06z HWRF run and then it bombs out further into a cat 4.

[Owasso]

EWRC around 96 hours in the 06z HWRF run and then it bombs out further into a cat 4.

https://i.imgur.com/hl9RTwg.png

https://i.imgur.com/cwYLsPN.png

Pretty much puts the brakes on at around hour 111 and begins moving more north than west.

[chris_fit]

No crazy shifts to the N by any of the models overnight - While I sympathize with our comrades in CA, USA will hopefully have no part in this one.

[kevin]

No crazy shifts to the N by any of the models overnight - While I sympathize with our comrades in CA, USA will hopefully have no part in this one.

Completely off-topic, but I just wanted to say that your avatar is probably my favorite one on the site. No matter how bad the storm, seeing a dancing penguin while scrolling through the thread always cheers me up .

[cycloneye]

TVCN goes to Cabo Gracias a Dios (NE corner of Nicaragua) being a little more south than past runs.

[aspen]

The HWRF track still cannot be discounted, because it has the center of 98L around 14.3N (jumping between 14.5N and 13.8N today), just like the 12z best track. The center finally starts concentrating around 15N by early tomorrow.

[kevin]

The HWRF track still cannot be discounted, because it has the center of 98L around 14.3N (jumping between 14.5N and 13.8N today), just like the 12z best track. The center finally starts concentrating around 15N by early tomorrow.

Indeed, pretty much all models take a dive south over the next 12 hours. The interesting thing will be whether it will remain south or jump back up like is the case with HWRF and HMON.

[aspen]

The HWRF track still cannot be discounted, because it has the center of 98L around 14.3N (jumping between 14.5N and 13.8N today), just like the 12z best track. The center finally starts concentrating around 15N by early tomorrow.

Indeed, pretty much all models take a dive south over the next 12 hours. The interesting thing will be whether it will remain south or jump back up like is the case with HWRF and HMON.

I’m leaning towards going back up, because visible imagery suggests the broad LLC is displaced more to the NW of the convective blob, and these young systems are very prone to center shifts whenever deep convection bursts. Plus, the HWRF has been phenomenal this year with structural forecasts.