ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL312020 - Tropical Depression INVEST

AL, 31, 2020111312, , BEST, 0, 143N, 740W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTY-ONE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 066, TRANSITIONED, alD82020 to al312020,

[SconnieCane]

I hope that means we’re getting a PTC next advisory.

No need unless TS+ land impacts are expected within 48 hours.

[underthwx]

I hope that means we’re getting a PTC next advisory.

No need unless TS+ land impacts are expected within 48 hours.

98L lookin depression-like this morning...

[Owasso]

2020 now holds the joint record for most Tropical Depressions along with 2005.

[Iceresistance]

Ohhhh noooo. . .

Special Message from NHC Issued 13 Nov 2020 14:10 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression 31, located over the central Caribbean Sea, at 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC)

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 0, 143N, 740W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, , 0, DPB, 235, 7,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 3, 142N, 743W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, , 0, DPB, 255, 6,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 12, 140N, 750W, 35, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 50, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, DPB, 255, 5,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 24, 138N, 760W, 45, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 20, 60, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, DPB, 260, 5,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 773W, 60, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 80, 60, 30, 70, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0, , 0, DPB, 275, 6,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 773W, 60, 0, DB, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0, , 0, DPB, 275, 6,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 48, 141N, 790W, 70, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 40, 100, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, DPB, 275, 8,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 48, 141N, 790W, 70, 0, DB, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, DPB, 275, 8,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 48, 141N, 790W, 70, 0, DB, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 15, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, DPB, 275, 8,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 60, 145N, 809W, 80, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 90, 60, 110, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 9,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 60, 145N, 809W, 80, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 9,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 72, 149N, 827W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 90, 60, 110, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, DPB, 285, 9,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 72, 149N, 827W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, DPB, 285, 9,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 96, 152N, 857W, 50, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, DPB, 275, 7,
AL, 31, 2020111312, 03, OFCL, 120, 147N, 883W, 25, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 0, , 0, DPB, 260, 6,

[Iceresistance]

This may be storm #30, I never thought this will ever happen.

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1327259114699976706

[aspen]

Let the “fun” begin...

If that BT info is right, the NHC is going with 90 kt as the peak for the first advisory. That’s way more aggressive than their first advisory for Eta. Oh boy.

[ElectricStorm]

Let the “fun” begin...

If that BT info is right, the NHC is going with 90 kt as the peak for the first advisory. That’s way more aggressive than their first advisory for Eta. Oh boy.

I was just about to post the same thing. Buckle up folks... Yet again

[Iceresistance]

I'm thinking peak intensity of 130-165 mph & 940-895 MB

(Too far out on how strong this will get, but still )

[Kazmit]

It seems like there's a very good chance this becomes a major. That would bring the total up to 6, tying with 2017. And that's not including possible upgrades to Zeta or Sally.

[Owasso]

95kt peak forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Important part of discussion:

The NHC track forecast at days
4 and 5 shows the system weakening over land, however some of the
track guidance keeps the system just off the coast on Honduras at
that time. If a more northern track occurs, the system could be
stronger at 96 and 120 h if it remains over water.

[Owasso]

A-aand in the worst case of timeliness, the newest ASCAT pass has materialized.

[aspen]

Borderline major at landfall...and this is just the first advisory, and the NHC is also noting the possibility for RI and Iota getting north of CA. This might be just as much of a beast, if not more so, than Eta at this rate.

[Kazmit]

Is the ocean heat content after Eta going to be a hinderance?

[MGC]

Just got my internet back yesterday....been out since Zeta.

Impressive cyclone for so late in the season. Look quite healthy. Should make a run at major....MGC

[Iceresistance]

DO WE HAVE 3 SYSTEMS ACTIVE AT ONCE!?

[Iceresistance]

Is the ocean heat content after Eta going to be a hinderance?

No, no sign of upwelling by Eta