ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

A-aand in the worst case of timeliness, the newest ASCAT pass has materialized.

https://i.postimg.cc/x1L3TMgf/image.png

How strong are the ASCAT measured winds?

[AutoPenalti]

DO WE HAVE 3 SYSTEMS ACTIVE AT ONCE!?

No. Eta became post-Tropical.

[kevin]

I can't remember seeing a 95 kt forecast in the very first advisory of any other Atlantic storm this year (please correct me if I'm wrong). And they even mention that if it misses Honduras like HWRF and HMON show it could be even worse. I hope it won't be too bad for the areas affected, but I have a feeling that if it indeed misses Honduras this could be 2020's 'big one'. Pretty crazy considering we're in mid-November.

[Iceresistance]

DO WE HAVE 3 SYSTEMS ACTIVE AT ONCE!?

No. Eta became post-Tropical.

So close to the 3 at once, maybe the post season analysis might do the 3 at once in November. but who knows!

[AutoPenalti]

The depression is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. A strong
mid-level ridge that lies over Florida and the western Atlantic
should steer the cyclone west-southwestward during the next 12 to 24
hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to begin sliding
eastward, and a westward to west-northwestward motion should begin.
On the foreast track, the cyclone is expected to approach the
coast of Central America in 60-72 h. The track guidance is in good
agreement through the first couple of days, but there is increasing
cross-track spread after that time. The HMON, HWRF, and GFS show a
track near or north of the coast of Honduras after 72 hours, while
the ECMWF and UKMET are farther south. For now, the NHC track is
near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected
consensus model and the TCVA multi-model consensus.

NHC unsure what happens after 72 hours.

[Iceresistance]

I can't remember seeing a 95 kt forecast in the very first advisory of any Atlantic storm this year (please correct me if I'm wrong). And they even mention that if it misses Honduras like HWRF and HMON show it could be even worse. I hope it won't be too bad for the areas affected, but I have a feeling that if it indeed misses Honduras this could be 2020's 'big one'. Pretty crazy considering we're in mid-November.

Yes, 95 knots is forecasted. (110 mph)

[Iceresistance]

Here is the cone!

[Owasso]

I know it sounds like a broken record at this point but this is probably 2020’s last chance to get a pretty powerful storm

[Owasso]

A-aand in the worst case of timeliness, the newest ASCAT pass has materialized.

https://i.postimg.cc/x1L3TMgf/image.png

How strong are the ASCAT measured winds?

I can make out some 40kt barbs.

[Iceresistance]

A-aand in the worst case of timeliness, the newest ASCAT pass has materialized.

https://i.postimg.cc/x1L3TMgf/image.png

How strong are the ASCAT measured winds?

I can make out some 40kt barbs.

Oh, that is already Lota/Iota

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1327270331065708550

[Owasso]

Already looks very impressive.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/2ygmTVq6/3-A4515-B1-3362-4-BC4-BAD6-A83167-DC7-B8-E.gif

Already looks very impressive.

This thing is ready to explode

[SconnieCane]

I know it sounds like a broken record at this point but this is probably 2020’s last chance to get a pretty powerful storm

Laura and Eta already hit 130kt (and in the latter case, is a lower bound estimate).

[Owasso]

I know it sounds like a broken record at this point but this is probably 2020’s last chance to get a pretty powerful storm

Laura and Eta already hit 130kt (and in the latter case, is a lower bound estimate).

Indeed and TD31 will almost certainly have more time then Eta did over the powderkeg that is the WCAR

[wxman57]

There will be no talk of this system coming into the Gulf. My hurricane wall was completed this week. It runs from Veracruz to Merida to Havana to eastern Cuba. A hurricane cannot get through! I have it at 100 kts near landfall Monday. Could be stronger if it skirts north of Honduras.

[tomatkins]

DO WE HAVE 3 SYSTEMS ACTIVE AT ONCE!?

No. Eta became post-Tropical.

If this gets named in the next update then we would have three named storms on the same day (although narrowly not at the same time). I think the record for that is like mid-October.

[Iceresistance]

Saved loop of TD 31



Note a potental eye feature, but likely a dry slot or weakness in the convection.

[ScottNAtlanta]

At some point will they not at least knock down these water temperatures? This will be like the 5th storm in this area this season

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like some light shear is undercutting it just a bit.