ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

At some point will they not at least knock down these water temperatures? This will be like the 5th storm in this area this season

These waters were untapped until last month, they were boiling! (up to 33C at it's peak SST)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The Caribbean has been absolutely OP this season.

[Iceresistance]

The upper level anticyclone is developing on top of TD 31. . .

[Do_For_Love]

I can't imagine that Central America needs any more rain after Eta.

[Shell Mound]

This could make landfall as a major hurricane within one hundred miles or so of Eta’s landfall location. Two Cat-4+ systems in the same area/year? Ugh.

Not wishing this on anyone, anywhere...

[TheAustinMan]

Since 1998, the NHC has never given a 95 kt forecast for a newly-formed system at a 72hour leadtime... until now. Should this come to pass, it will be yet another addition to 2020's pantheon of intensification.

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1327283037403398144

[Iceresistance]

Windy.com photo of TD 31
It it a eye feature? Dry Slot? Or Convection weakness?

[ClarCari]

Windy.com photo of TD 31
It it a eye feature? Dry Slot? Or Convection weakness?

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/Eye-feature-or-Dry-Slot-or-Weakness-in-the-convection.png

Convection mirage. Could mean anything or nothing. This is still a developing TD.

[Iceresistance]

Windy.com photo of TD 31
It it a eye feature? Dry Slot? Or Convection weakness?

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/Eye-feature-or-Dry-Slot-or-Weakness-in-the-convection.png

Convection mirage. Could mean anything or nothing. This is still a developing TD.

Convection mirage?

[ClarCari]

Windy.com photo of TD 31
It it a eye feature? Dry Slot? Or Convection weakness?

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/Eye-feature-or-Dry-Slot-or-Weakness-in-the-convection.png

Convection mirage. Could mean anything or nothing. This is still a developing TD.

Convection mirage?

Meaning it means nothing. In developing cyclones convection can spurt oddly and in different spots and sometimes these create illusions of features that aren’t present at the time.

[Iceresistance]

Convection mirage. Could mean anything or nothing. This is still a developing TD.

Convection mirage?

Meaning it means nothing. In developing cyclones convection can spurt oddly and in different spots and sometimes these create illusions of features that aren’t present at the time.

True, but that could also mean that this is ready to explode

[ElectricStorm]

Convection mirage?

Meaning it means nothing. In developing cyclones convection can spurt oddly and in different spots and sometimes these create illusions of features that aren’t present at the time.

True, but that could also mean that this is ready to explode

I highly doubt that's an eye feature. Even the most bullish models take a while to really explode it, and that's if it goes north of Honduras, which is a big if at this point

[Iceresistance]

Meaning it means nothing. In developing cyclones convection can spurt oddly and in different spots and sometimes these create illusions of features that aren’t present at the time.

True, but that could also mean that this is ready to explode

I highly doubt that's an eye feature. Even the most bullish models take a while to really explode it, and that's if it goes north of Honduras, which is a big if at this point

I was doubting it as well.

[tolakram]

visible loop: https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goe ... o1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

[underthwx]

visible loop: https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goe ... o1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

https://imgur.com/D8TtYas

In my humble opinion...sure looks like a TS....will the name be Lota, or Iota?...ain't for sure on the name....

[ElectricStorm]

visible loop: https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goe ... o1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

https://imgur.com/D8TtYas

In my humble opinion...sure looks like a TS....will the name be Lota, or Iota?...ain't for sure on the name....

Iota

[Iceresistance]

GOES data is running behind, I need to use Windy.com for TD 31 satellite updates until the GOES data is caught up.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah can this season stop with the Caribbean murdercanes? It's time to track mid-latitude spin-ups not constant Caribbean majors in mid-November. This season, I swear

[Sanibel]

Obviously curling up...

Will it have enough time over water?...

[supercane4867]

GFS and GFS related models including both HWRF and HMON suggest a Mitch like track into central Honduras coast. Euro is further south but many EPS members do indicate similar tracks.