ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion
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EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Very impressed with this as compared to just 12 hours ago, when I went to bed it didn't look like something about to go ham but this morning it's definitely on the road to earning a name. This year has surprised me with just how rapidly a fairly broad wave axis can become a very doom-looking tropical depression.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Recent satellite trends are very concerning. Once an inner core forms.... Look out.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Please stay on topic and avoid posting the same thing over and over. Thanks.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The HWRF has adjusted its forecast now that an exact LLC is present. It shows a slight southward dip before heading north and missing CA. Same goes for the HMON. The HWRF is showing a tightly compact core developing within the next 24 hours, so we’re gonna have to watch out for the start of a RI phase.
The best case scenario for Iota is an HWRF/HMON/GFS(ish) track: just enough north that it misses hitting Nicaragua and Honduras, where perhaps it could stall or get moved away by a trough or front. Some areas are still going to get hit hard by Iota, but at least with that track, it’ll spare Nicaragua and Honduras from another Cat 4 flooding disaster.
The best case scenario for Iota is an HWRF/HMON/GFS(ish) track: just enough north that it misses hitting Nicaragua and Honduras, where perhaps it could stall or get moved away by a trough or front. Some areas are still going to get hit hard by Iota, but at least with that track, it’ll spare Nicaragua and Honduras from another Cat 4 flooding disaster.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
A SW cross-over is against climatology so this should be interesting...
If it falls closer to climo it could be a Belize burner...
If it falls closer to climo it could be a Belize burner...
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Dry slot at 11.5 o'clock
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I think climatology is quietly sobbing in a corner right now whispering "just please stop..." so at this point I wouldn't be surprised by much lol
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
EquusStorm wrote:I think climatology is quietly sobbing in a corner right now whispering "just please stop..." so at this point I wouldn't be surprised by much lol
The NHC in the tweets are hinting that even they are getting exausted. But this will not stop!
NHC:
Atlantic Basin:
TD 31L:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
HWRF seems to completely stall Iota at the end of the run. Steering just..collapses...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
ASCAT direct hit
IT IS Tropical Storm Iota
IT IS Tropical Storm Iota
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
AL, 31, 2020111318, , BEST, 0, 139N, 742W, 35, 1006, TS
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
CyclonicFury wrote:AL, 31, 2020111318, , BEST, 0, 139N, 742W, 35, 1006, TS
And just like Eta, Iota’s life as a TD was brief.
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
CyclonicFury wrote:AL, 31, 2020111318, , BEST, 0, 139N, 742W, 35, 1006, TS
TS, does that mean we have Iota at the next advisory? If so, then it's pretty much spot on with what HWRF shows right now. Actually the storm is even a bit further north than HWRF has it right now, since HWRF has it at 13.3N, even though it does move to 13.9N at 21z.
Last edited by kevin on Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Hoping and praying recon will be more successful with Iota than it was for Eta. Hope they got all those mechanical issues figured out...
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Weather Dude wrote:Hoping and praying recon will be more successful with Iota than it was for Eta. Hope they got all those mechanical issues figured out...
There is one expected Tomorrow
(In 2017, there was Recon heading into Irma from the Leeward Islands, will there be a similar one for 31L?)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Iota could ramp up really quickly even earlier than HWRF’s prediction.
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
aspen wrote:The HWRF has adjusted its forecast now that an exact LLC is present. It shows a slight southward dip before heading north and missing CA. Same goes for the HMON. The HWRF is showing a tightly compact core developing within the next 24 hours, so we’re gonna have to watch out for the start of a RI phase.
The best case scenario for Iota is an HWRF/HMON/GFS(ish) track: just enough north that it misses hitting Nicaragua and Honduras, where perhaps it could stall or get moved away by a trough or front. Some areas are still going to get hit hard by Iota, but at least with that track, it’ll spare Nicaragua and Honduras from another Cat 4 flooding disaster.
The HWRF and HMON were two of the worst models with Eta, below the terribly-performing UKMET and always bad NGX.
Verification is bottom-left of the page below:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al292020/
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Hoping and praying recon will be more successful with Iota than it was for Eta. Hope they got all those mechanical issues figured out...
There is one expected Tomorrow
(In 2017, there was Recon heading into Irma from the Leeward Islands, will there be a similar one for 31L?)
No, there isn't recon currently stationed in the islands.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Ubuntwo wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Hoping and praying recon will be more successful with Iota than it was for Eta. Hope they got all those mechanical issues figured out...
There is one expected Tomorrow
(In 2017, there was Recon heading into Irma from the Leeward Islands, will there be a similar one for 31L?)
No, there isn't recon currently stationed in the islands.
I wished there was. . . They would be there MUCH faster
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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