ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Did TD 31 jog to the Southeast?

The NHC has put the system at 14.2 N & 74.3 W

But the latest Satellite center fix is at 13.3 N & 73.2 W

[ClarCari]

105kt peak now.....man...

[ElectricStorm]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[Ryxn]

Say hello to the infamous "I" storm making its return.....in mid-November. She is seeking to avenge her dead friends, Isidore Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Irene, Igor, and Irma.

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IOTA.. ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...

[ClarCari]

Say hello to the infamous "I" storm making its return.....in mid-November. She is seeking to avenge her dead friends, Isabel, Ivan, Irene, Igor, and Irma.

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IOTA.. ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...

And Isidore and Ike whom used to be on this name list btw!

This is the bullish I’ve see the NHC all year and it’s soooo late in the year.

[aspen]

Is it just me, or the 4pm NHC track is slightly slower/north compared to the 10am track?

[Iceresistance]

The only reason why the NHC is aggressive with Iota is because of the models being extremely aggressive.

[supercane4867]

First advisory as a named storm already calling for 105kt peak.

The last time I remember seeing this was from Marie 2014 in EPAC(officially peaked at 140kt/918mb, however a comparison with recon observation in Odile later that year suggests even higher peak intensity)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/e ... .002.shtml?

[AutoPenalti]

The only reason why the NHC is aggressive with Iota is because of the models being extremely aggressive.

No, there's more to it than that.

[Ryxn]

The NHC knows now the Atlantic don't be playin'...

[Iceresistance]

The only reason why the NHC is aggressive with Iota is because of the models being extremely aggressive.

No, there's more to it than that.

What's more? I'm now thinking at the dropping wind shear, air getting more moist & the anticyclone is about to connect with the circulation of Iota

[ElectricStorm]

Say hello to the infamous "I" storm making its return.....in mid-November. She is seeking to avenge her dead friends, Isabel, Ivan, Irene, Igor, and Irma.

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IOTA.. ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...

And Isidore and Ike whom used to be on this name list btw!

This is the bullish I’ve see the NHC all year and it’s soooo late in the year.

This is the most bullish I've seen the NHC this early in a storm's life since I've been tracking storms since 2015

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Tropical Storm Iota

30-12-5

For reference, the 2020 season is more active than most WPAC seasons.

[supercane4867]

Very likely that we will see a CDO as cold as Eta. More CDG convections on the way for Iota.

What said that the Atlantic can't produce cold cloudtops?

[Iceresistance]

Will Iota be the biggest bang to end to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?

ACE is at 165 units as of 3 PM CST

[wxman57]

Did TD 31 jog to the Southeast?

The NHC has put the system at 14.2 N & 74.3 W

But the latest Satellite center fix is at 13.3 N & 73.2 W

That appears to be a mid-level center at 13.3N/73.2W. Iota isn't vertically stacked yet.

[LarryWx]

Did TD 31 jog to the Southeast?

The NHC has put the system at 14.2 N & 74.3 W

But the latest Satellite center fix is at 13.3 N & 73.2 W

That appears to be a mid-level center at 13.3N/73.2W. Iota isn't vertically stacked yet.

If the further south midlevel center pulls in the LLC, I wonder if the track will need to be revised to be further south.

[al78]

Tropical Storm Iota

30-12-5

For reference, the 2020 season is more active than most WPAC seasons.

https://i.imgur.com/W333MqK.jpg

Only if you only look at named storms. 2020 is well behind an average NW Pacific season in terms of hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE, which tells you something about just how active the NW Pacific basin is.

[wxman57]

Did TD 31 jog to the Southeast?

The NHC has put the system at 14.2 N & 74.3 W

But the latest Satellite center fix is at 13.3 N & 73.2 W

That appears to be a mid-level center at 13.3N/73.2W. Iota isn't vertically stacked yet.

If the further south midlevel center pulls in the LLC, I wonder if the track will need to be revised to be further south.

Models are trending farther north. TVCN misses Honduras now and takes it into southern Belize.

[Nimbus]

Did TD 31 jog to the Southeast?

The NHC has put the system at 14.2 N & 74.3 W

But the latest Satellite center fix is at 13.3 N & 73.2 W

That appears to be a mid-level center at 13.3N/73.2W. Iota isn't vertically stacked yet.

If the further south midlevel center pulls in the LLC, I wonder if the track will need to be revised to be further south.

Wonder if the official track will stay inland after first landfall or make it all the way to the Bay of Campeche like Mitch?